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3 days ago
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Tony Talk: Sarah Snook and Cole Escola remain strong in lead, but upsets loom in the featured play races
Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Two weeks away from the 2025 Tony ceremony on June 8, we offer our take on who will win four of the top acting trophies and comment on momentum shifts in the top races. David Buchanan: Last week, we discussed the very close musical acting categories, so it feels fitting to pivot now to the play acting races. Before we do, though, we should touch on the Broadway League's Spring Road Conference, which is geared toward pitching this year's shows as future touring productions and garners a fair share of Tony voter attendees. What have you heard about how the major event might be shaping the top races? More from GoldDerby 'Hacks' renewed for Season 5 ahead of Season 4 finale Iliza Shlesinger's comedy evolution: 'You don't want to be 42 telling the same jokes you told at 22' The mystery of Pedro Pascal's Emmy category solved as HBO's 'The Last of Us' submissions are revealed Sam Eckmann: The annual Spring Road Conference is perhaps the most important week of Tony campaigning. There are just over 100 out-of-town Tony voters, the majority of whom were in New York for this event. They are also seeing the nominated productions, attending post-show talk-backs, and hitting up swanky parties. These soirees also invite local voters in addition to the "road" voters. The biggest parties were the ones thrown by the two musicals that many voters have signaled are their top two contenders: Maybe Happy Ending and Death Becomes Her. The former took over the rooftop lounge at the Edison Hotel, while the latter filled Sony Hall. The stars and creatives were all in attendance, mingling with eager voters. The robots of Maybe Happy Ending still have the edge thanks to the musical's emotional pull, but Death Becomes Her has emerged as a surprising favorite for those who crave a bit of escapism within a splashy musical comedy. Gold Derby's odds only have it winning costume design, but I think upset victories in categories like Best Book of a Musical or Choreography are definitely possible now. Elsewhere, Oh, Mary! invited legendary playwright Tony Kushner to lead a talk-back, several great videos of which are circulating online. I guess that's a good place to segue into the acting races, since Cole Escola is still ahead by a mile (or at least the length of Mary Todd's hoop skirt) for Lead Actor in a Play. Do you think anyone can stop their march to the Radio City stage? Buchanan: At this moment, I really don't see one clear, strong alternative to Escola. With the exception of one or two other performers, there really has not been anyone as buzzed and raved about this Broadway season as them, and deservedly so. It is a very, very different performance from the ones that often garner Tonys in this category, but we have had purely comedic victors this century (James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Kevin Kline, Present Laughter), and Escola's zany turn definitely ranks among them. I believe they'll triumph even if there's an unexpected, unlikely upset in Best Play. Assuming you agree about how strong Escola's chances are, who do you think would be the likeliest challenger? Eckmann: Louis McCartney has earned admiration for his physically demanding role in Stranger Things: The First Shadow. I would rank him in second place because the level of difficulty is just so obvious. Daniel Dae Kim would become the first ever Asian-American winner of this category, after making history as the first such nominee. I think both of these nominees will get a smattering of votes, but Escola's performance is one-of-a-kind and has turned Oh, Mary! into the must-see event of the season. There is a similar lock in Lead Actress of a Play, where Sarah Snook has led our odds all season long for The Picture of Dorian Gray. I know Laura Donnelly has plenty of fans for her impressive dual roles in The Hills of California, but Dorian Gray is still running, and even voters who are mixed on the overall production are in awe of Snook's technical prowess on stage. Interestingly, I've talked to several voters who have waxed poetically about Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain. But after they finish telling me how powerful she was, especially in the play's final scene, they say that they're ultimately voting for Snook. Sink doesn't dominate her play the way Snook or Donnelly do in their productions, and I have to wonder if Sink could have had an easy victory if she submitted in featured actress instead of lead. Is anything swaying you away from predicting Snook here? Buchanan: No, I think we're in lockstep in our predictions in this category, too. Were The Hills of California still running, I would rank Donnelly's prospects a lot higher, but I think the December closing date will be too challenging to overcome when there is such a buzzy, acclaimed performance in an open show for voters to choose. Sink is indeed exceptional in John Proctor, too, and I ultimately believe her category placement is the correct one, given that her character is the main topic of conversation in the scenes that occur before she arrives. Even if John Proctor garners a healthy number of votes in Best Play, I just don't quite think she can overcome Snook. The same goes for stage veteran LaTanya Richardson Jackson in Purpose. As with Sink, she could have been deemed eligible in featured and perhaps had a better chance of winning there. Speaking of Featured Actress in a Play, let's turn to that category, where Sink's costar Fina Strazza and Jackson's costar Kara Young are both strong contenders. Are you betting on one of them or going with the category frontrunner, Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day? Eckmann: This is where things get interesting as all five women have a strong case. I've moved Fina Strazza into the first place position. I have encountered an enormous amount of voter love for John Proctor Is the Villain. With Oh, Mary! the box-office and zeitgeist juggernaut of the plays, John Proctor has flown comparatively under the radar. So it's the show that makes voters feel like they've discovered something cool. This sense of discovery is quite powerful in the world of awards voting. A similar thing happened with The Outsiders last year, which had relatively minimal buzz until the very end of the season when it surged for Best Musical. I knew The Outsiders was going to land a major surprise win, I didn't follow my gut, which told me Danya Taymor would pull off an upset for director. Now I feel like John Proctor is similarly poised for a surprise victory somewhere, and featured actress makes a ton of sense. English fans are passionate, but the equally excellent Marjan Neshat and Tala Ashe could split the vote. Kara Young's popularity with voters cannot be overlooked, but she just took home a Tony last year. In order to win back-to-back, I think the performance has to be absolutely undeniable. As thrilling as Young is in Purpose, we clearly have other viable nominees who have never won. Then there's Jessica Hecht who delivers what is easily one of the best monologues this season in Eureka Day. She's a true "actor's actor," a veteran who has never won and could easily take this. But Eureka Day has been closed for months and I don't feel like it made the same impact as some other fall and winter shows. That leaves me with Strazza, whose character is at the heart of John Proctor. We watch the actress chart a delicate journey from skeptic to believer in a truly committed performance that would make you believe this is her 20th Broadway show, not just her second. And the play is so beloved that voters will be looking for a place to reward it. Am I totally overthinking this and we should just call it for Hecht? SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the tricky musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger Buchanan: You're not overthinking the category at all! I love your prediction for Strazza. Beth is such a great character and she portrays her so well. The audience is immediately endeared to her perfectionism, but she pulls the rug out from under us in the second half of the play as we watch her grapple with big emotions and navigate an increasingly bad situation. But for now, I am actually predicting Young. As you said about John Proctor, I think voters may be looking for a place to reward Purpose, especially given that the nominators voted for five of its six ensemble members, and in many ways, Young fits that bill. I agree that the role of Aziza might not be undeniable, but there's no question Young has demonstrated incredible range with these two different characters from two different centuries. Her character is also the audience proxy into the world of the influential Jasper family of the play, and watching her increasing alienation from those she once revered made for a riveting watch. We've also seen two instances of back-to-back winners in the past decade-plus in the play categories (Judith Light and Laurie Metcalf), and I feel Young could easily follow in their footsteps, even though she hasn't been in the industry nearly as long. This could be an instance, though, where the frontrunner does prevail, as Hecht is also beloved in the industry and has been getting more and more opportunities to shine in recent Broadway seasons. Speaking of overthinking, let's touch on Featured Actor now. Conrad Ricamora has a very commanding lead there for his truly original performance as Abraham Lincoln in Oh, Mary!, but there's a sizable contingent of backers for Francis Jue in Yellow Face. How do you see this category unfolding? Eckmann: I've had Ricamora out front all season, but it's not a lock. Normally, you would think that Ricamora would sail to victory since he is in the most popular show, which is still running during the voting period. He is also fully committed to all the wild twists and turns of Escola's script. Watching Ricamora's frustrated Abe try to control this demented Mary Todd Lincoln is one of the highlights of the season. But Jue is helped immensely by the PBS Great Performances broadcast of Yellow Face, which allows voters to remind themselves of all the nuances of his performance. As David Henry Hwang's father, Jue is a joyous presence, and the beating heart of the play. When his character is interrogated and his American dream shattered it's an absolute gut-punch. It's shockingly more relevant now than when the play debuted, thanks to the White House's crackdown on immigrants. Jue has also earned great admiration for years of beloved Off-Broadway performances like Soft Power and Cambodian Rock Band, so voters will feel good about rewarding a veteran of the New York stage. When I attended a special advance screening of Yellow Face, it was telling that Jue earned the biggest applause of the cast. Folks are quite endeared to him. I think the vote will be awfully close between these two men, though if a spoiler exists, I am once again going down the John Proctor route with Gabriel Ebert's charming but sneakily smarmy teacher. What's your read of the race? SEE Latest Tony Awards odds: 'Maybe Happy Ending' and 'Oh, Mary!' maintain their leads, Best Actress in a Musical tightens Buchanan: I am predicting Jue for many of the reasons you've noted. When I saw Yellow Face back in October, I walked away most impressed with his performance, from his grasp of the humor of the role and then the heartbreak in those final, harrowing scenes, especially the chilling interrogation. Yellow Face certainly doesn't need to pick up an acting prize to win Best Play Revival, but I think these two trophies could go hand-in-hand this year. SIGN UP for Gold Derby's free newsletter with latest predictions Best of GoldDerby Who Needs a Tony to Reach EGOT? Sadie Sink on her character's 'emotional rage' in 'John Proctor Is the Villain' and her reaction to 'Stranger Things: The First Shadow' 'It should be illegal how much fun I'm having': Lea Salonga on playing Mrs. Lovett and more in 'Stephen Sondheim's Old Friends' Click here to read the full article.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Tony Talk: Our final winner predictions in all 26 categories, including competitive Best Actress in a Musical and Best Play Revival
Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. In the final week of the 2024-2025 Broadway season, we debate our winner predictions for the biggest prizes and in the most hotly contested categories for one last time. The Tony Awards air Sunday on CBS and Paramount+. David Buchanan: We are now just days away from the Tony Awards, so it's time for us to offer our (nearly) final predictions! For such an incredible season on Broadway, it seems like a lot of the top categories have coalesced around one contender. I think we're both in agreement that Maybe Happy Ending is far and away the favorite for Best Musical. I know there has been growing support for Death Becomes Her in the past two weeks, but not enough to displace those beloved Helperbots, right? More from GoldDerby 'Only Murders in the Building' Emmy odds for Selena Gomez, the Martins, and all those guest stars 'Dune: Prophecy' showrunner teases the Fremen and which books Season 2 could cover Eriq La Salle on developing 'On Call's' 'imperfect' hybrid style and returning to acting Sam Eckmann: Yes, I'm feeling super confident about Maybe Happy Ending taking Best Musical. Death Becomes Her has become a popular alternate, but with no actual guaranteed wins, it isn't favored enough to overcome the androids in one of the biggest Broadway success stories of the season. Speaking of unlikely successes, I'm also certain that Cole Escola's radically queer camp-fest Oh, Mary! will take Best Play. It's one of the strongest lineups we've ever seen in this category, but that's also why it's so hard for anything to surpass Mary Todd Lincoln here: voters are in love with them all and not coalescing around a single alternative. Do you think the revival races are as clear cut?Buchanan: I agree on Oh, Mary! for Best Play. There are two potential challengers — Purpose and John Proctor Is the Villain — and if voters go somewhere else, I think it would be for Branden Jacobs-Jenkins, who has been doing a lot of press in support of his Pulitzer Prize winner. But a zeitgeist-capturing show like Oh, Mary! is hard to beat. The revival races are a bit murkier. Of the two categories, I'm more confident in Best Musical Revival, where I have Sunset Boulevard out front. I've made this comparison before, but this year strikes me as similar to the Oklahoma! versus Kiss Me, Kate contest in 2019, where the more divisive, riskier production pulled off a victory over a more straightforward, conventional staging. Did Gypsy's win at the Drama Desk Awards change your prediction? Eckmann: I've spoken with voters who have returned for a second viewing of Gypsy this spring and found that many elements of the production have clicked into place in a way that they said didn't happen in the fall. So the show is experiencing an upswing. Still, I think George C. Wolfe's omission in the directing category plants Gypsy firmly in second place to Sunset Boulevard. Even those who aren't enamored with Jamie Lloyd's directorial concept say they respect the uniqueness of the show. The closer race is Eureka Day vs. Yellow Face for Best Play Revival. David Henry Hwang and company have certainly run the larger awards campaign, with countless voter screenings of the PBS video capture of Yellow Face. And yet, Eureka Day claimed the Drama League, Drama Desk, and Dorian Awards when both plays went head-to-head. It's likely due to the timeliness of its vaccine-mandate storyline as measles cases pop up across the country. I'm still going with Yellow Face, but I think this will be one of the closest races of the night. Buchanan: I am similarly sticking with Yellow Face, though the awards run for Eureka Day has been impressive. Manhattan Theatre Club very astutely released video of the 16-minute Zoom scene from the latter production for voters to consider, and that is truly a standout moment of the Broadway season which could help the show pull off a victory. This is the one of the four production categories that I will be rethinking and updating until Tony night. But there is no greater contest or closer race this year than Best Actress in a Musical. You and I have been firmly predicting Gypsy's Audra McDonald for the entire season, and the six-time Tony winner has been on an upswing with other theater awards, winning the Drama Desk and the Dorian Award. But for the first time since the Tony nominations, Sunset Boulevard's Nicole Scherzinger has taken the lead in Gold Derby's combined odds and has that coveted Drama League Award win. Plus, there's Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk victor Jasmine Amy Rogers from Boop! The Musical ready to surprise like some other newcomers in recent years. As I've expressed in earlier columns, McDonald's performance is far and away my favorite of the Broadway season and has emotionally walloped me all three times I've seen her, so I am not wavering in my prediction that she wins a historic seventh trophy. What is your final proclamation on this contest? Eckmann: Scherzinger had a slight edge in this battle after she won the Drama League, but the winds have shifted. The recent controversy stirred up by Patti LuPone, in which she spoke disparagingly about Kecia Lewis and McDonald, has earned the Gypsy star palpable good will in the theater community. That doesn't mean this is a done deal for McDonald, however, as there is a massive surge for Rogers as Betty Boop. There are definitely voters hesitant to give McDonald a seventh trophy and are instead being won over by the 'star is born' narrative for Rogers. McDonald won the Dorian Award, Rogers won the Outer Critics Circle Award, and they both shared a win at the Drama Desks. All three actresses enter this final week with serious hardware in tow. I personally think our odds are off and Rogers has surpassed Scherzinger for second place behind McDonald. I'm still betting on this six-time winner to break her own Tony record, but it remains a nail-biter. Shall we move to Best Actor in a Musical, where I think the race has settled to a more manageable two-person heat? Buchanan: I am predicting Darren Criss, as he is the face of Maybe Happy Ending and the musical should likely perform exceptionally well on Tony night. But I don't think this is a slam-dunk victory just yet. The contest could likely come down to his equal-parts technically precise and heartwarming performance versus the charismatic burst of energy from Jonathan Groff in Just in Time. I know historically there has never been a lead actor to win two consecutive trophies in this category, but I don't think Tony voters really know or care about those statistics like we do, and there's almost nobody as beloved or endearing as Groff in the industry right now. Just In Time also did well with nominations overall, and this could be the opportunity to reward it. Are those the two men you had in mind? I'd also flag Tom Francis of Sunset Boulevard, who is campaigning just as vociferously as the others, has the standout performance of the title song in Shubert Alley, and could possibly upset if his show exceeds our expectations. Eckmann: Francis and Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) both have ardent supporters, but I think the focus has narrowed to Criss and Groff. Regarding the stat about back-to-back victories, there has hardly been any meaningful opportunities in Tony history for consecutive winners in this category. So it's a non-factor, really. Groff has the showier role and could absolutely win. But, I'm betting Criss takes it (by only a hair) because of the overall popularity of Maybe Happy Ending, and because his performance tugs at the heart more than any of his fellow In contrast to these lead musical races, the contests for Best Actress in a Play and Best Actor in a Play appear pretty sewn up for Sarah Snook (The Picture of Dorian Gray) and Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!), don't they? There are other performers in these two categories who would make extremely deserving winners, but I'm not sensing any major changes in sentiment that would lead me to actually predict an upset. Eckmann: Agreed on Escola and Snook. Though I will fangirl over Laura Donnelly in The Hills of California until the day I die. At least she got a Drama Desk win! Upsets are more likely elsewhere. Featured Actor in a Play has become a true coin toss between Conrad Ricamora of Oh, Mary! and Francis Jue of Yellow Face. I was previously thinking Jue, but have switched to Ricamora since he is in the more favored show, but I don't feel confident in it. Featured Actress in a Play remains a wild ride. The fact that presumed frontrunner Jessica Hecht wasn't even nominated at the Drama Desk, Drama League, or Outer Critics Circle for her amazing role in Eureka Day gives me pause. So I still have a crazy hunch that Dorian-winner Fina Strazza is going to pull off the biggest upset of the night as a way to reward John Proctor is the Villain. We all need one gutsy prediction right? Buchanan: My thinking in the featured races may evolve depending on where I land in Best Play Revival. Yellow Face doesn't need an acting win to pull off a victory, but if it does prevail, then I think Jue likely goes along for the ride for what I consider the best performance in that production. I'm tempted to go along with you and predict Strazza, but at this point in the Tony countdown, I'm going to stick with my instinct and predict Kara Young from Purpose to repeat. My belief in her was buoyed by her win at the Drama Desk Awards, not because these voting bodies have a lot of overlap, but because it is clear she continues to be cherished throughout the industry, and that sentiment sometimes propels you to consecutive prizes at the Tonys just as Judith Light and Laurie Metcalf experienced not so long ago. Fortunately, the Featured Actor in a Musical and Featured Actress in a Musical contests seem much steadier, as we're both still hanging onto Jak Malone from Operation Mincemeat and Natalie Venetia Belcon for Buena Vista Social Club. Let's pivot to some other confounding categories that we haven't discussed before! You and I both made a pretty big switch this week in Best Director of a Musical when we bumped Jamie Lloyd out of our first spot in favor of Michael Arden for Maybe Happy Ending. Are you getting a sense like I am that even if Sunset wins Best Revival, the production might be too different and too divisive to carry visionary Lloyd across the finish line, whereas few will quibble with Arden's work on the Best Musical frontrunner? SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the tricky musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger Eckmann: As recently as one week ago I would have told you that Lloyd had director in the bag for Sunset Blvd. But Arden has completely overtaken the conversation this past week. Voters have been enamored with his pitch-perfect work in Maybe Happy Ending all season, but were hesitant to reward him so soon after his Parade victory two years ago. If you talk to any voters now though, they clearly overcame their hesitation. Arden has been a constant presence on the awards circuit and successfully snatched the momentum. He's won the Drama League, Drama Desk, and Outer Critics Circle Awards. I'd actually be shocked if anyone else took the Tony at this point. I also feel fairly confident that Sam Pinkleton will take Best Director of a Play for Oh, Mary! Danya Taymor will put up one hell of a fight for John Proctor Is the Villain, and would be the rare person to win consecutive trophies after her victory for The Outsiders last year. But voters have gotten the message that Pinkleton's work is just as essential to Oh, Mary! as Escola's script. Buchanan: Since we now both predict Maybe Happy Ending to nab Directing, will it sweep and pick up wins for Best Original Score and Best Musical Book? Our current odds have it running the table and a lot of experts agree, but in such an exceptionally strong year for original musicals, I'm keenly looking out for a surprise. I surmise we're diverging on these categories significantly because I'm going against the grain on score and predicting Dead Outlaw. David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna have written the ear-worm of the season with "Dead" and delivered a true genre-spanning, Americana, rollicking collection of songs that infuse a lot of grit and heart into the true story of Elmer McCurdy. I also think folks underestimate how well-respected Yazbek is in the industry, and this is far and away his strongest offering since The Band's Visit, if not one of the best of his career. Our odds once had Pulitzer finalist Itamar Moses winning for Dead Outlaw's book but have recently switched to Maybe Happy Ending, and I made the move with them. Are we 0-for-2 matching each other's predictions here? Eckmann: I understand your point about Yazbek, but I don't think everyone is unanimously in love with Dead Outlaw. I feel overly confident that Will Aronson and Hue Park have Score in the bag for their tuneful music in Maybe Happy Ending, which will pair well with its Best Musical win. Best Book of a Musical feels more rife for an upset. Moses brought the most unique concept to life, so he is certainly in the hunt. Comedic books can also land here, as was the case for Tootsie and Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder. So this could be a place where voters throw a bone to Death Becomes Her and Marco Pennette's hysterical reinvigoration of the classic movie. I'm waffling between the funny bone of Death Becomes Her and the bleeding heart of Maybe Happy Ending, likely choosing the latter. Speaking of waffling, can we dish on the design categories? Sunset Boulevard appears to be the likely winner for both Musical Lighting Design and Musical Sound Design, and Dane Laffrey will surely win Musical Scenic Design. But I can't seem to choose between Death Becomes Her or Boop! The Musical for costumes. Boop! has the potential to spoil the race in all three of its nominations! Where are you leaning? SEE Tony Talk: Sarah Snook and Cole Escola remain strong in lead, but upsets loom in the featured play races Buchanan: That is an extraordinarily tough contest for Musical Costume Design between Gregg Barnes for Boop! and Paul Tazewell for Death Becomes Her! Both would make for deserving winners and Tazewell has had an extraordinary year with his historic Academy Award win for Wicked, but I have landed on Boop! for the upset win. My decision is mostly derived from the utterly brilliant work he did on the Act Two opener, "Where Is Betty?," in which the entire ensemble wears half black-and-white and half technicolor costumes and alternatively turn 180 degrees to instantaneously transport the audience between Betty's cartoon world and New York City. It is the kind of old-school theatrical design sleight of hand that screams to be recognized. Despite the cleverness of that number and of the Boop! opening, "A Little Versatility," where we see Betty perform in different short films, I'm going with Buena Vista Social Club for Best Choreography. Justin Peck has been irresistible to Tony voters thus far and the work he and his wife Patricia Delgado did bringing these iconic Cuban songs to life on stage is pulse-pounding. Speaking of that indelible music, we're both aligned on it taking the prize for Best Orchestrations, too. For the four play design categories, it looks like the technical marvel Stranger Things: The First Shadow will very likely gobble up three for Play Scenic Design, Play Lighting Design, and Play Sound Design, but how about that tricky Play Costume Design category? Will Mary Todd Lincoln's hoop skirts or Sarah Snook's two dozen different looks prevail? Eckmann: Stranger Things should indeed prevail in three of its four categories thanks to its monstrously impressive stagecraft. But the costume design race is a different story. Our odds favor Oh, Mary! and it certainly helps that the show is a wildly popular Best Play nominee. But I believe The Picture of Dorian Gray costumer Marg Horwell will handily buck our odds and place a Tony on her shelf next to the Olivier she won for the same show. Her outfits, and their ability to rapidly transform in front of the audience, are an essential piece of Sarah Snook's 26-character magic trick. Now let's see how smart, or foolish, we look when the winners are unveiled this Sunday. SIGN UP for Gold Derby's free newsletter with latest predictions Best of GoldDerby 'Maybe Happy Ending' star Darren Criss on his Tony nomination for playing a robot: 'Getting to do this is the true win' Who Needs a Tony to Reach EGOT? Sadie Sink on her character's 'emotional rage' in 'John Proctor Is the Villain' and her reaction to 'Stranger Things: The First Shadow' Click here to read the full article.
