Tony Talk: Our final winner predictions in all 26 categories, including competitive Best Actress in a Musical and Best Play Revival

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2 days ago

Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. In the final week of the 2024-2025 Broadway season, we debate our winner predictions for the biggest prizes and in the most hotly contested categories for one last time. The Tony Awards air Sunday on CBS and Paramount+.
David Buchanan: We are now just days away from the Tony Awards, so it's time for us to offer our (nearly) final predictions! For such an incredible season on Broadway, it seems like a lot of the top categories have coalesced around one contender. I think we're both in agreement that Maybe Happy Ending is far and away the favorite for Best Musical. I know there has been growing support for Death Becomes Her in the past two weeks, but not enough to displace those beloved Helperbots, right?
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Sam Eckmann: Yes, I'm feeling super confident about Maybe Happy Ending taking Best Musical. Death Becomes Her has become a popular alternate, but with no actual guaranteed wins, it isn't favored enough to overcome the androids in one of the biggest Broadway success stories of the season. Speaking of unlikely successes, I'm also certain that Cole Escola's radically queer camp-fest Oh, Mary! will take Best Play. It's one of the strongest lineups we've ever seen in this category, but that's also why it's so hard for anything to surpass Mary Todd Lincoln here: voters are in love with them all and not coalescing around a single alternative. Do you think the revival races are as clear cut?Buchanan: I agree on Oh, Mary! for Best Play. There are two potential challengers — Purpose and John Proctor Is the Villain — and if voters go somewhere else, I think it would be for Branden Jacobs-Jenkins, who has been doing a lot of press in support of his Pulitzer Prize winner. But a zeitgeist-capturing show like Oh, Mary! is hard to beat. The revival races are a bit murkier. Of the two categories, I'm more confident in Best Musical Revival, where I have Sunset Boulevard out front. I've made this comparison before, but this year strikes me as similar to the Oklahoma! versus Kiss Me, Kate contest in 2019, where the more divisive, riskier production pulled off a victory over a more straightforward, conventional staging. Did Gypsy's win at the Drama Desk Awards change your prediction?
Eckmann: I've spoken with voters who have returned for a second viewing of Gypsy this spring and found that many elements of the production have clicked into place in a way that they said didn't happen in the fall. So the show is experiencing an upswing. Still, I think George C. Wolfe's omission in the directing category plants Gypsy firmly in second place to Sunset Boulevard. Even those who aren't enamored with Jamie Lloyd's directorial concept say they respect the uniqueness of the show. The closer race is Eureka Day vs. Yellow Face for Best Play Revival. David Henry Hwang and company have certainly run the larger awards campaign, with countless voter screenings of the PBS video capture of Yellow Face. And yet, Eureka Day claimed the Drama League, Drama Desk, and Dorian Awards when both plays went head-to-head. It's likely due to the timeliness of its vaccine-mandate storyline as measles cases pop up across the country. I'm still going with Yellow Face, but I think this will be one of the closest races of the night.
Buchanan: I am similarly sticking with Yellow Face, though the awards run for Eureka Day has been impressive. Manhattan Theatre Club very astutely released video of the 16-minute Zoom scene from the latter production for voters to consider, and that is truly a standout moment of the Broadway season which could help the show pull off a victory. This is the one of the four production categories that I will be rethinking and updating until Tony night.
But there is no greater contest or closer race this year than Best Actress in a Musical. You and I have been firmly predicting Gypsy's Audra McDonald for the entire season, and the six-time Tony winner has been on an upswing with other theater awards, winning the Drama Desk and the Dorian Award. But for the first time since the Tony nominations, Sunset Boulevard's Nicole Scherzinger has taken the lead in Gold Derby's combined odds and has that coveted Drama League Award win. Plus, there's Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk victor Jasmine Amy Rogers from Boop! The Musical ready to surprise like some other newcomers in recent years. As I've expressed in earlier columns, McDonald's performance is far and away my favorite of the Broadway season and has emotionally walloped me all three times I've seen her, so I am not wavering in my prediction that she wins a historic seventh trophy. What is your final proclamation on this contest?
Eckmann: Scherzinger had a slight edge in this battle after she won the Drama League, but the winds have shifted. The recent controversy stirred up by Patti LuPone, in which she spoke disparagingly about Kecia Lewis and McDonald, has earned the Gypsy star palpable good will in the theater community. That doesn't mean this is a done deal for McDonald, however, as there is a massive surge for Rogers as Betty Boop. There are definitely voters hesitant to give McDonald a seventh trophy and are instead being won over by the 'star is born' narrative for Rogers. McDonald won the Dorian Award, Rogers won the Outer Critics Circle Award, and they both shared a win at the Drama Desks. All three actresses enter this final week with serious hardware in tow. I personally think our odds are off and Rogers has surpassed Scherzinger for second place behind McDonald. I'm still betting on this six-time winner to break her own Tony record, but it remains a nail-biter. Shall we move to Best Actor in a Musical, where I think the race has settled to a more manageable two-person heat?
Buchanan: I am predicting Darren Criss, as he is the face of Maybe Happy Ending and the musical should likely perform exceptionally well on Tony night. But I don't think this is a slam-dunk victory just yet. The contest could likely come down to his equal-parts technically precise and heartwarming performance versus the charismatic burst of energy from Jonathan Groff in Just in Time. I know historically there has never been a lead actor to win two consecutive trophies in this category, but I don't think Tony voters really know or care about those statistics like we do, and there's almost nobody as beloved or endearing as Groff in the industry right now. Just In Time also did well with nominations overall, and this could be the opportunity to reward it. Are those the two men you had in mind? I'd also flag Tom Francis of Sunset Boulevard, who is campaigning just as vociferously as the others, has the standout performance of the title song in Shubert Alley, and could possibly upset if his show exceeds our expectations.
Eckmann: Francis and Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) both have ardent supporters, but I think the focus has narrowed to Criss and Groff. Regarding the stat about back-to-back victories, there has hardly been any meaningful opportunities in Tony history for consecutive winners in this category. So it's a non-factor, really. Groff has the showier role and could absolutely win. But, I'm betting Criss takes it (by only a hair) because of the overall popularity of Maybe Happy Ending, and because his performance tugs at the heart more than any of his fellow nominees.Buchanan: In contrast to these lead musical races, the contests for Best Actress in a Play and Best Actor in a Play appear pretty sewn up for Sarah Snook (The Picture of Dorian Gray) and Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!), don't they? There are other performers in these two categories who would make extremely deserving winners, but I'm not sensing any major changes in sentiment that would lead me to actually predict an upset.
Eckmann: Agreed on Escola and Snook. Though I will fangirl over Laura Donnelly in The Hills of California until the day I die. At least she got a Drama Desk win! Upsets are more likely elsewhere. Featured Actor in a Play has become a true coin toss between Conrad Ricamora of Oh, Mary! and Francis Jue of Yellow Face. I was previously thinking Jue, but have switched to Ricamora since he is in the more favored show, but I don't feel confident in it. Featured Actress in a Play remains a wild ride. The fact that presumed frontrunner Jessica Hecht wasn't even nominated at the Drama Desk, Drama League, or Outer Critics Circle for her amazing role in Eureka Day gives me pause. So I still have a crazy hunch that Dorian-winner Fina Strazza is going to pull off the biggest upset of the night as a way to reward John Proctor is the Villain. We all need one gutsy prediction right?
Buchanan: My thinking in the featured races may evolve depending on where I land in Best Play Revival. Yellow Face doesn't need an acting win to pull off a victory, but if it does prevail, then I think Jue likely goes along for the ride for what I consider the best performance in that production. I'm tempted to go along with you and predict Strazza, but at this point in the Tony countdown, I'm going to stick with my instinct and predict Kara Young from Purpose to repeat. My belief in her was buoyed by her win at the Drama Desk Awards, not because these voting bodies have a lot of overlap, but because it is clear she continues to be cherished throughout the industry, and that sentiment sometimes propels you to consecutive prizes at the Tonys just as Judith Light and Laurie Metcalf experienced not so long ago. Fortunately, the Featured Actor in a Musical and Featured Actress in a Musical contests seem much steadier, as we're both still hanging onto Jak Malone from Operation Mincemeat and Natalie Venetia Belcon for Buena Vista Social Club.
Let's pivot to some other confounding categories that we haven't discussed before! You and I both made a pretty big switch this week in Best Director of a Musical when we bumped Jamie Lloyd out of our first spot in favor of Michael Arden for Maybe Happy Ending. Are you getting a sense like I am that even if Sunset wins Best Revival, the production might be too different and too divisive to carry visionary Lloyd across the finish line, whereas few will quibble with Arden's work on the Best Musical frontrunner?
SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the tricky musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger
Eckmann: As recently as one week ago I would have told you that Lloyd had director in the bag for Sunset Blvd. But Arden has completely overtaken the conversation this past week. Voters have been enamored with his pitch-perfect work in Maybe Happy Ending all season, but were hesitant to reward him so soon after his Parade victory two years ago. If you talk to any voters now though, they clearly overcame their hesitation. Arden has been a constant presence on the awards circuit and successfully snatched the momentum. He's won the Drama League, Drama Desk, and Outer Critics Circle Awards. I'd actually be shocked if anyone else took the Tony at this point. I also feel fairly confident that Sam Pinkleton will take Best Director of a Play for Oh, Mary! Danya Taymor will put up one hell of a fight for John Proctor Is the Villain, and would be the rare person to win consecutive trophies after her victory for The Outsiders last year. But voters have gotten the message that Pinkleton's work is just as essential to Oh, Mary! as Escola's script.
Buchanan: Since we now both predict Maybe Happy Ending to nab Directing, will it sweep and pick up wins for Best Original Score and Best Musical Book? Our current odds have it running the table and a lot of experts agree, but in such an exceptionally strong year for original musicals, I'm keenly looking out for a surprise. I surmise we're diverging on these categories significantly because I'm going against the grain on score and predicting Dead Outlaw. David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna have written the ear-worm of the season with "Dead" and delivered a true genre-spanning, Americana, rollicking collection of songs that infuse a lot of grit and heart into the true story of Elmer McCurdy. I also think folks underestimate how well-respected Yazbek is in the industry, and this is far and away his strongest offering since The Band's Visit, if not one of the best of his career. Our odds once had Pulitzer finalist Itamar Moses winning for Dead Outlaw's book but have recently switched to Maybe Happy Ending, and I made the move with them. Are we 0-for-2 matching each other's predictions here?
Eckmann: I understand your point about Yazbek, but I don't think everyone is unanimously in love with Dead Outlaw. I feel overly confident that Will Aronson and Hue Park have Score in the bag for their tuneful music in Maybe Happy Ending, which will pair well with its Best Musical win. Best Book of a Musical feels more rife for an upset. Moses brought the most unique concept to life, so he is certainly in the hunt. Comedic books can also land here, as was the case for Tootsie and Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder. So this could be a place where voters throw a bone to Death Becomes Her and Marco Pennette's hysterical reinvigoration of the classic movie. I'm waffling between the funny bone of Death Becomes Her and the bleeding heart of Maybe Happy Ending, likely choosing the latter. Speaking of waffling, can we dish on the design categories? Sunset Boulevard appears to be the likely winner for both Musical Lighting Design and Musical Sound Design, and Dane Laffrey will surely win Musical Scenic Design. But I can't seem to choose between Death Becomes Her or Boop! The Musical for costumes. Boop! has the potential to spoil the race in all three of its nominations! Where are you leaning?
SEE Tony Talk: Sarah Snook and Cole Escola remain strong in lead, but upsets loom in the featured play races
Buchanan: That is an extraordinarily tough contest for Musical Costume Design between Gregg Barnes for Boop! and Paul Tazewell for Death Becomes Her! Both would make for deserving winners and Tazewell has had an extraordinary year with his historic Academy Award win for Wicked, but I have landed on Boop! for the upset win. My decision is mostly derived from the utterly brilliant work he did on the Act Two opener, "Where Is Betty?," in which the entire ensemble wears half black-and-white and half technicolor costumes and alternatively turn 180 degrees to instantaneously transport the audience between Betty's cartoon world and New York City. It is the kind of old-school theatrical design sleight of hand that screams to be recognized. Despite the cleverness of that number and of the Boop! opening, "A Little Versatility," where we see Betty perform in different short films, I'm going with Buena Vista Social Club for Best Choreography. Justin Peck has been irresistible to Tony voters thus far and the work he and his wife Patricia Delgado did bringing these iconic Cuban songs to life on stage is pulse-pounding. Speaking of that indelible music, we're both aligned on it taking the prize for Best Orchestrations, too.
For the four play design categories, it looks like the technical marvel Stranger Things: The First Shadow will very likely gobble up three for Play Scenic Design, Play Lighting Design, and Play Sound Design, but how about that tricky Play Costume Design category? Will Mary Todd Lincoln's hoop skirts or Sarah Snook's two dozen different looks prevail?
Eckmann: Stranger Things should indeed prevail in three of its four categories thanks to its monstrously impressive stagecraft. But the costume design race is a different story. Our odds favor Oh, Mary! and it certainly helps that the show is a wildly popular Best Play nominee. But I believe The Picture of Dorian Gray costumer Marg Horwell will handily buck our odds and place a Tony on her shelf next to the Olivier she won for the same show. Her outfits, and their ability to rapidly transform in front of the audience, are an essential piece of Sarah Snook's 26-character magic trick. Now let's see how smart, or foolish, we look when the winners are unveiled this Sunday.
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