Tony Talk: Sarah Snook and Cole Escola remain strong in lead, but upsets loom in the featured play races

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05-06-2025

Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Two weeks away from the 2025 Tony ceremony on June 8, we offer our take on who will win four of the top acting trophies and comment on momentum shifts in the top races.
David Buchanan: Last week, we discussed the very close musical acting categories, so it feels fitting to pivot now to the play acting races. Before we do, though, we should touch on the Broadway League's Spring Road Conference, which is geared toward pitching this year's shows as future touring productions and garners a fair share of Tony voter attendees. What have you heard about how the major event might be shaping the top races?
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Sam Eckmann: The annual Spring Road Conference is perhaps the most important week of Tony campaigning. There are just over 100 out-of-town Tony voters, the majority of whom were in New York for this event. They are also seeing the nominated productions, attending post-show talk-backs, and hitting up swanky parties. These soirees also invite local voters in addition to the "road" voters. The biggest parties were the ones thrown by the two musicals that many voters have signaled are their top two contenders: Maybe Happy Ending and Death Becomes Her. The former took over the rooftop lounge at the Edison Hotel, while the latter filled Sony Hall. The stars and creatives were all in attendance, mingling with eager voters. The robots of Maybe Happy Ending still have the edge thanks to the musical's emotional pull, but Death Becomes Her has emerged as a surprising favorite for those who crave a bit of escapism within a splashy musical comedy. Gold Derby's odds only have it winning costume design, but I think upset victories in categories like Best Book of a Musical or Choreography are definitely possible now. Elsewhere, Oh, Mary! invited legendary playwright Tony Kushner to lead a talk-back, several great videos of which are circulating online. I guess that's a good place to segue into the acting races, since Cole Escola is still ahead by a mile (or at least the length of Mary Todd's hoop skirt) for Lead Actor in a Play. Do you think anyone can stop their march to the Radio City stage?
Buchanan: At this moment, I really don't see one clear, strong alternative to Escola. With the exception of one or two other performers, there really has not been anyone as buzzed and raved about this Broadway season as them, and deservedly so. It is a very, very different performance from the ones that often garner Tonys in this category, but we have had purely comedic victors this century (James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Kevin Kline, Present Laughter), and Escola's zany turn definitely ranks among them. I believe they'll triumph even if there's an unexpected, unlikely upset in Best Play. Assuming you agree about how strong Escola's chances are, who do you think would be the likeliest challenger?
Eckmann: Louis McCartney has earned admiration for his physically demanding role in Stranger Things: The First Shadow. I would rank him in second place because the level of difficulty is just so obvious. Daniel Dae Kim would become the first ever Asian-American winner of this category, after making history as the first such nominee. I think both of these nominees will get a smattering of votes, but Escola's performance is one-of-a-kind and has turned Oh, Mary! into the must-see event of the season. There is a similar lock in Lead Actress of a Play, where Sarah Snook has led our odds all season long for The Picture of Dorian Gray. I know Laura Donnelly has plenty of fans for her impressive dual roles in The Hills of California, but Dorian Gray is still running, and even voters who are mixed on the overall production are in awe of Snook's technical prowess on stage. Interestingly, I've talked to several voters who have waxed poetically about Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain. But after they finish telling me how powerful she was, especially in the play's final scene, they say that they're ultimately voting for Snook. Sink doesn't dominate her play the way Snook or Donnelly do in their productions, and I have to wonder if Sink could have had an easy victory if she submitted in featured actress instead of lead. Is anything swaying you away from predicting Snook here?
Buchanan: No, I think we're in lockstep in our predictions in this category, too. Were The Hills of California still running, I would rank Donnelly's prospects a lot higher, but I think the December closing date will be too challenging to overcome when there is such a buzzy, acclaimed performance in an open show for voters to choose. Sink is indeed exceptional in John Proctor, too, and I ultimately believe her category placement is the correct one, given that her character is the main topic of conversation in the scenes that occur before she arrives. Even if John Proctor garners a healthy number of votes in Best Play, I just don't quite think she can overcome Snook. The same goes for stage veteran LaTanya Richardson Jackson in Purpose. As with Sink, she could have been deemed eligible in featured and perhaps had a better chance of winning there. Speaking of Featured Actress in a Play, let's turn to that category, where Sink's costar Fina Strazza and Jackson's costar Kara Young are both strong contenders. Are you betting on one of them or going with the category frontrunner, Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day?
Eckmann: This is where things get interesting as all five women have a strong case. I've moved Fina Strazza into the first place position. I have encountered an enormous amount of voter love for John Proctor Is the Villain. With Oh, Mary! the box-office and zeitgeist juggernaut of the plays, John Proctor has flown comparatively under the radar. So it's the show that makes voters feel like they've discovered something cool. This sense of discovery is quite powerful in the world of awards voting. A similar thing happened with The Outsiders last year, which had relatively minimal buzz until the very end of the season when it surged for Best Musical. I knew The Outsiders was going to land a major surprise win, I didn't follow my gut, which told me Danya Taymor would pull off an upset for director. Now I feel like John Proctor is similarly poised for a surprise victory somewhere, and featured actress makes a ton of sense. English fans are passionate, but the equally excellent Marjan Neshat and Tala Ashe could split the vote. Kara Young's popularity with voters cannot be overlooked, but she just took home a Tony last year. In order to win back-to-back, I think the performance has to be absolutely undeniable. As thrilling as Young is in Purpose, we clearly have other viable nominees who have never won. Then there's Jessica Hecht who delivers what is easily one of the best monologues this season in Eureka Day. She's a true "actor's actor," a veteran who has never won and could easily take this. But Eureka Day has been closed for months and I don't feel like it made the same impact as some other fall and winter shows. That leaves me with Strazza, whose character is at the heart of John Proctor. We watch the actress chart a delicate journey from skeptic to believer in a truly committed performance that would make you believe this is her 20th Broadway show, not just her second. And the play is so beloved that voters will be looking for a place to reward it. Am I totally overthinking this and we should just call it for Hecht?
SEE Tony Talk: Predicting the tricky musical acting categories including Audra McDonald vs. Nicole Scherzinger
Buchanan: You're not overthinking the category at all! I love your prediction for Strazza. Beth is such a great character and she portrays her so well. The audience is immediately endeared to her perfectionism, but she pulls the rug out from under us in the second half of the play as we watch her grapple with big emotions and navigate an increasingly bad situation. But for now, I am actually predicting Young. As you said about John Proctor, I think voters may be looking for a place to reward Purpose, especially given that the nominators voted for five of its six ensemble members, and in many ways, Young fits that bill. I agree that the role of Aziza might not be undeniable, but there's no question Young has demonstrated incredible range with these two different characters from two different centuries. Her character is also the audience proxy into the world of the influential Jasper family of the play, and watching her increasing alienation from those she once revered made for a riveting watch. We've also seen two instances of back-to-back winners in the past decade-plus in the play categories (Judith Light and Laurie Metcalf), and I feel Young could easily follow in their footsteps, even though she hasn't been in the industry nearly as long. This could be an instance, though, where the frontrunner does prevail, as Hecht is also beloved in the industry and has been getting more and more opportunities to shine in recent Broadway seasons. Speaking of overthinking, let's touch on Featured Actor now. Conrad Ricamora has a very commanding lead there for his truly original performance as Abraham Lincoln in Oh, Mary!, but there's a sizable contingent of backers for Francis Jue in Yellow Face. How do you see this category unfolding?
Eckmann: I've had Ricamora out front all season, but it's not a lock. Normally, you would think that Ricamora would sail to victory since he is in the most popular show, which is still running during the voting period. He is also fully committed to all the wild twists and turns of Escola's script. Watching Ricamora's frustrated Abe try to control this demented Mary Todd Lincoln is one of the highlights of the season. But Jue is helped immensely by the PBS Great Performances broadcast of Yellow Face, which allows voters to remind themselves of all the nuances of his performance. As David Henry Hwang's father, Jue is a joyous presence, and the beating heart of the play. When his character is interrogated and his American dream shattered it's an absolute gut-punch. It's shockingly more relevant now than when the play debuted, thanks to the White House's crackdown on immigrants. Jue has also earned great admiration for years of beloved Off-Broadway performances like Soft Power and Cambodian Rock Band, so voters will feel good about rewarding a veteran of the New York stage. When I attended a special advance screening of Yellow Face, it was telling that Jue earned the biggest applause of the cast. Folks are quite endeared to him. I think the vote will be awfully close between these two men, though if a spoiler exists, I am once again going down the John Proctor route with Gabriel Ebert's charming but sneakily smarmy teacher. What's your read of the race?
SEE Latest Tony Awards odds: 'Maybe Happy Ending' and 'Oh, Mary!' maintain their leads, Best Actress in a Musical tightens
Buchanan: I am predicting Jue for many of the reasons you've noted. When I saw Yellow Face back in October, I walked away most impressed with his performance, from his grasp of the humor of the role and then the heartbreak in those final, harrowing scenes, especially the chilling interrogation. Yellow Face certainly doesn't need to pick up an acting prize to win Best Play Revival, but I think these two trophies could go hand-in-hand this year.
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