Latest news with #ScottLivermore
Khaleej Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Gulf countries may explore income tax plans after Oman lays out 'roadmap'
Following Oman's decision to impose income tax in 2028, other Gulf countries can also explore income tax to diversify their revenues, say experts. As reported by Khaleej Times on Sunday, Oman will implement five per cent income tax from January 2028 on residents earning 42,000 Omani riyals (Dh400,000) annually. 'While other Gulf states currently have no plans to levy personal taxes, we anticipate that some form of income taxation — whether targeting higher earners, expatriates, or remittances — will be explored as an income stream in the medium term. "As governments across the region continue seeking to diversify their tax bases away from oil dependency, Oman's approach may well provide a roadmap for similar reforms elsewhere in the Gulf,' said Scott Livermore, ICAEW economic advisor, chief economist and managing director, Oxford Economics Middle East. He added that Oman's decision to levy income tax 'could serve as a testing ground, with the potential for expanded coverage in the coming years depending on its economic and social impact.' Oman is the first country in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region to levy personal income tax, positioning it as a fiscal policy pioneer among its GCC peers, he added. 'Oman's introduction of a five per cent personal income tax represents an initial but significant step in the Gulf state's fiscal diversification strategy. While the move has limited coverage and revenue-raising potential in its current form – affecting only the top 1 per cent of earners – it demonstrates that Oman's authorities are willing to pursue policies that might still be considered radical elsewhere in the region,' said Livermore. Rachel Fox, partner of taxation at Al Tamimi & Co., said details on precisely what sources of income would be considered as taxable for the purposes of the income tax, as well as which deductions may be permitted will only become clear once the legislation is published. 'However, it is anticipated that deductions will be permitted for education and healthcare expenses, zakat contributions and charitable donations, among other items,' she said in a statement to Khaleej Times. Fox added that the income aims to strengthen the public finances of Oman, while aligning with the broader goals of Oman Vision 2040. 'Revenues generated from the tax will be used to fund Oman's social protection system and diversify its economy,' she said. 'As the first Gulf state to impose personal income tax, this marks a significant development in the region. It remains to be seen whether any of the other states will follow suit. At present, no other Gulf state has signalled an intention to introduce personal income tax. "However, tax policy in the region is clearly evolving and the impact of this new tax is likely to be watched carefully by other states,' he said. Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, said exemptions and deductions will be allowed for significant costs, including zakat, education, healthcare and endowment. He added that other exemptions include initial one-time exemption from income earned outside Oman for two years; one-time exemption for income from the sale of a secondary residence; inherited income and gifts. Deduction will also be allowed for interest in financing the construction of primary residence (one-time effect only); the taxable income thus will be the gross income minus all the exemptions, deductible expenses, and losses. ' GCC nations have already enacted indirect taxation reforms … Looking at the initial guidelines of the proposed taxation rules, the overall structure looks more progressive, with only the top 1 per cent of the working class getting taxed. Furthermore, the provisions for the number of deductions and exemptions provide a proper way of tax planning for the taxpayers,' added Valecha.
Muscat Daily
17-06-2025
- Business
- Muscat Daily
GCC economic growth projected at 4.4% despite trade tensions
Muscat – GCC economies are set for stronger-than-expected growth this year, despite rising global trade tensions and subdued oil prices, according to the latest ICAEW Economic Insight report for the second quarter, prepared by Oxford Economics. The report highlights upgraded regional forecasts, with the GCC region's GDP now expected to expand by 4.4% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 4.0%. While global GDP growth has been downgraded to 2.4% – the slowest pace since 2020 – the GCC is bucking the trend. This resilience is being driven by a quicker rollback of OPEC+ production cuts, which has lifted oil sector growth forecasts from 3.2% in March to 4.5%. However, the ICAEW report noted that with Brent crude expected to average $67.30 per barrel in 2025, the GCC faces increasing fiscal pressures. Only Qatar and the UAE are projected to maintain fiscal surpluses in 2025, underscoring the challenge of balancing growth ambitions with budget constraints. The report also stated that the impact of the 10% US tariff on imports from GCC countries is expected to be limited, given the region's relatively low export exposure to the US and the exemption of energy products. 'Non-oil sectors in the GCC are forecast to grow 4.1% this year, supported by strong domestic demand, investment momentum, and diversification initiatives. The region is also well positioned to absorb any trade rebalancing resulting from tariff pressures and geopolitical tensions,' the report said. In a press statement, Hanadi Khalife, Head of Middle East at ICAEW, said, 'The GCC economies are showing remarkable adaptability amid shifting global trade dynamics. Investments in tourism, technology, and infrastructure continue to pay dividends, strengthening resilience and laying the groundwork for long-term growth.' Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Adviser and Chief Economist and Managing Director at Oxford Economics Middle East, added, 'We have upgraded our GCC forecast due to faster OPEC+ output increases and sustained non-oil momentum in key economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While uncertainty and trade shifts may place pressure on fiscal policy, the region's two leading economies are expected to continue progressing towards economic diversification and attracting global capital at an accelerated pace.' Saudi Arabia's oil economy is now forecast to grow by 5.2% in 2025, up sharply from 1.9% projected in March, reflecting increased oil output and economic momentum. Production is averaging 9.7mn barrels per day, while non-oil sectors – led by construction and trade -continue to expand. The UAE economy is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, driven by a recovery in oil output, a 4.7% rise in non-oil GDP, deepening trade ties, and improved market access. Tourism remains a key driver, with international visitor spending expected to contribute nearly 13% of GDP in 2025.
Zawya
17-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
GCC economies buck global downturn; GDP to hit 4.4% in 2025
Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are bucking the trend of downgraded growth, with regional gross domestic product (GDP) poised to expand by 4.4% this year, an upgrade from previous forecasts. The stronger-than-expected growth will be driven primarily by higher oil output and robust non-oil sectors, especially in the region's two largest economies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to ICAEW and Oxford Economics. "We have upgraded our GCC forecast due to faster OPEC+ output increases and sustained non-oil momentum in key economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE," said Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor and Chief Economist and Managing Director, Oxford Economics Middle East. Last week, the World Bank slashed its projection for global GDP to 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the forecast in the beginning of the year. The downgrade was attributed to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Saudi, UAE economies Saudi Arabia is now expected to see its oil economy grow by 5.2% in 2025, a sharp increase from 1.9% previously, as oil output averages higher at 9.7 million barrels per day and non-oil sectors continue to expand, ICAEW and Oxford Economics noted. The kingdom's non-oil activities are projected to grow by 5.3%, while investor sentiment remains upbeat, with S&P recently upgrading the country's credit rating to A+. In the UAE, the economy will expand by 5.1% on the back of an oil output recovery, a 4.7% growth in non-oil GDP and deepening trade ties. The growth will also be driven by strong tourism, with international visitor spending expected to account for nearly 13% of GDP in 2025. "The GCC economies are showing remarkable adaptability amid shifting global trade dynamics. Investments in tourism, technology and infrastructure continue to pay dividends, strengthening resilience and laying the groundwork for long-term growth," said Hanadi Khalife, Head of Middle East, ICAEW. (Writing by Cleofe Maceda; editing by Seban Scaria)
Zawya
25-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Qatar: Revamp of PPP laws to boost foreign investment in non-energy sectors
Doha: The revamp of important laws concerning bankruptcy and public-private partnerships (PPP) is anticipated to attract greater foreign direct investment, bolstering growth in non-energy sectors. In an interview with The Peninsula, Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor, and Chief Economist and Managing Director, Oxford Economics Middle East, said "The proposed overhaul of key laws related to bankruptcy and PPP is expected to drive stronger foreign direct investment inflows, bolstering growth in non-energy sectors." Qatar introduced a 50 percent discount on leasing rates in industrial, logistics, and commercial zones last month. The decision was implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and Manateq to foster national economic growth, enhancing the private sector's role, and encouraging entrepreneurship and investment in value-driven sectors. This was followed by a 90 percent reduction in application fees for licensing an entity on its platform by the Qatar Financial Centre. The country has made significant strides in reducing its dependence on the oil and gas sector, with initiatives aimed at bolstering key industries such as infrastructure, real estate, finance, health, and education. The government's efforts to implement economic reforms, such as introducing favourable business policies and regulatory changes, have further contributed to the growth outlook. Livermore said, 'Qatar's economic growth trajectory is poised to remain strong, with a continued focus on diversification and innovation, positioning the country for long-term stability and success.' He highlighted strong performance in the transport and storage, accommodation and food services, real estate, health, and education sectors. 'The authorities continue to take steps to attract investment and broaden diversification,' Livermore said. On the other hand, Qatar's non-energy sector has been experiencing robust growth, driven by the government's strategic diversification efforts. While reliant on oil and gas revenues, Qatar has increasingly focused on expanding sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, finance, healthcare, education, and technology, to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons. The finance and real estate sectors have seen significant development, with new initiatives aimed at attracting international businesses and investors. As Qatar continues its diversification efforts, the non-energy sector is expected to become an increasingly important driver of economic growth. The industry expert said, 'This implies a similar pace of growth as last year; available GDP data for 2024 show a 2.9 percent expansion across non-energy sectors in the first three quarters.' The official also highlighted that the tourism sector has provided significant support to non-energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment. 'The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance this year, lifting the number of arrivals to 5.3 million,' he said. Livermore further added 'The GCC is not at risk of targeted US tariffs and the US will remain a key trade partner for the region, with recent announcements pointing to strengthening economic ties, if anything. That said, the global trade uncertainty in the face of Trump's tariff policies clouds the outlook for external demand.' © Dar Al Sharq Press, Printing and Distribution. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. ( The Peninsula Newspaper
Zawya
19-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Bahrain economy projected to hit 2.8% GDP growth in 2025
Bahrain's economy is projected to gather pace, reaching 2.8 per cent GDP growth in 2025, even with global economic headwinds, according to the latest Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) Economic Insight report, prepared by Oxford Economics. This positive outlook aligns with the broader GCC resilience, which is forecast to experience 4pc growth, up from an estimated 1.8pc in 2024. According to ICAEW economic adviser and Oxford Economics Middle East chief economist and managing director Scott Livermore, the GCC's projected 4pc growth in 2025 highlights the region's ability to withstand external pressures while advancing its diversification efforts. On Bahrain, the report highlights the kingdom's successful diversification efforts, with the non-oil sector contributing 86pc to overall GDP in 2024, demonstrating the country's progress in moving away from oil dependency. Notably, non-oil GDP growth is anticipated to reach 3.1pc in 2025, driven by strong performances in sectors like accommodation and food services, financial activities, and insurance. The island nation's strategic initiatives, such as the Gateway Gulf event, which secured $12 billion in deals across key sectors, underscore its commitment to diversification. Ongoing projects, including a $427 million waterfront development and the $221m Exhibition World Bahrain convention centre, operating since November 2022, are set to bolster tourism, a vital growth engine. To attract foreign direct investment (FDI), Bahrain is establishing new industrial free zones in Muharraq, near Bahrain International Airport, targeting the foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, and garments industries. Initiatives like the Golden Licence, introduced in 2023, have already proven effective in attracting FDI into financial services, manufacturing, and technology. While oil GDP contracted by 2.4pc in 2024, the report forecasts a 0.9pc growth in 2025, driven by the $6 billion Bapco Modernisation Programme, which aims to increase refining capacity to 400,000 barrels per day by end-2025. Bapco Energies' successful $500m funding for the Bahrain Field Expansion and Development Programme further reinforces this positive outlook. However, the report also notes that lower oil prices, forecasted to average $70.5 per barrel in 2025, may constrain the sector's fiscal impact, given the kingdom's higher breakeven price. The GCC region's non-energy sectors are projected to grow by 4.4pc this year, up from an estimated 3.9pc in 2024, with regional PMI data firmly in expansionary territory. Following recent Opec+ policy shifts, oil production will gradually increase from April, boosting oil-sector growth to 3.2pc. 'Despite softer oil prices, the gradual easing of Opec+ production cuts will support energy sector growth after two years of contraction,' explained Mr Livermore. Inflation in Bahrain is projected to rise to 2.8pc in 2025, potentially impacting consumer spending. The fiscal balance is expected to remain in deficit, with debt levels exceeding 100pc of GDP. However, initiatives like the 15pc domestic top-up tax for multinational enterprises and a multi-year fiscal consolidation plan aim to enhance economic sustainability. The report also acknowledges the potential impact of US trade policies, particularly under President Trump. While the US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement could strengthen economic ties, potential tariff shifts could introduce uncertainties, even as the GCC remains largely sheltered from direct tariff impacts. The kingdom's workforce is set to expand, driven by rising migration trends and updated UN population projections. This growth will be crucial for enhancing productivity and furthering diversification efforts across core sectors. Commenting on the regional outlook, ICAEW head of Middle East Hanadi Khalife said: 'The business landscape across the GCC continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of global economic uncertainty. We're seeing strong investment in key sectors like tourism and infrastructure, which are creating new opportunities for growth.' avinash@
