Latest news with #ScowcroftMiddleEastSecurityInitiative
Indian Express
5 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Russia's Trojan horse moment and why Ukraine's ‘Operation Spider's Web' upends scope of drone warfare
In an audacious attack that was planned for over a year and half, Ukraine carried out large scale drone attacks on multiple Russian air bases, including one in Siberia that was some 4,000 km away from the frontlines. Under its 'Operation Spider's Web', a swarm of Ukrainian drones were unleashed on June 1 that attacked at least five military airbases deep inside Russia's borders and left some 41 bomber aircraft in flames. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the operation as 'an absolutely brilliant result' and said the Ukrainians' actions will 'undoubtedly be in the history books'. He said planning for the operation began 18 months ago, and those involved 'were withdrawn from Russian territory in time'. The attack comes close on the heels of a stepping up of Russia's bombing of Ukrainian cities and was timed just ahead of crucial talks between the two sides. A new round of peace talks is scheduled to start in Istanbul on June 2. Sources say specialised drones called FPV drones were smuggled into Russia, along with mobile wooden cabins. The cabins were carried by trucks with the drones hidden inside. The cabin roofs opened remotely – and then the drones took off, zoned in on the nearby bases to precisely mount the attacks. Ukraine claimed the attack caused $7 billion in damage, with multiple combat planes destroyed in the attack. The Russian defence ministry on Sunday said Ukraine launched FPV drone attacks on five airbases across the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions, adding that all strikes on the Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur airfields were successfully repelled. '(For) All the long range missiles and fighter jets, but it was 150 drones in shipping containers or trucks that took out a reported 1/3 of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and unmanned surface drones that neutered the Black Fleet. Warfare as we knew it just a decade ago, is over,' according to Alex Plitsas, a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs' Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative who leads the Initiative's Counterterrorism Project and was formerly associated with Bridgewater Associates and NorthropGrumman. There are at least five reasons why the attack changes the rules of battlefield engagement: It was one of significant raiding actions in modern warfare, given that the mission was planned for 18 months. This differed from the sort of attacks Ukraine has mounted so far – larger fixed-wing drones attacking at night, closer to areas adjoining Russia's border with Ukraine. This upends that pattern entirely, given that small drones were used this time during the day, and this was done far away from the front lines and deep into Russian territory. In Irkutsk province in eastern Siberia, thousands of kilometres away from Ukraine, locals posted footage of small quadcopter drones emerging from the roof of trucks and then flying toward a nearby airfield, followed by the smoke after impact. The attacks at these Russian airfields are said to have destroyed 41 aircraft, including A-50 early-warning planes and Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, most of which are now out of production and extremely difficult to replace. Russia is estimated to have less than 100 strategic bombers, and around a third of that fleet is impacted with this attack. These attacks were carried out by the SBU, Ukraine's main security agency. The agency released footage in which its chief, Vasily Maliuk, said: 'Russian strategic bombers… all burning delightfully.' Commentators on X aligned to Ukraine's security services indicated that over a 100 quadcopter FPV drones with bombs were smuggled into Russia for the operations. These were then meticulously housed in specially-built wooden cabins, loaded on top of lorries and then released after the roofs of the cabins were retracted remotely. FPV or first-person view drones are smaller in size and have cameras built in on the front, which sends live video to the operator. This enables precise flying and manoeuvrability by the operator from a remote location, almost like an aircraft. The Economist reported that these drones used Russian mobile-telephone networks to relay their footage back to Ukraine, much of which then shared on social media. It is entirely possible that the drivers of the trucks did not know what they were carrying. In that respect, analysts said this operation was similar to the 2022 attack on Kerch bridge, where a bomb concealed in a lorry destroyed part of the bridge linking Crimea with the Russian mainland. The planning was elaborate. A source quoted by The Economist said that the Russians were first encouraged to move more of their planes to particular bases by Ukrainian strikes on other ones. Three days before this drone attack, dozens of planes were moved to the Olenya airfield in Murmansk province, according to reports published at the time. It was precisely here that the most damage was done after the June 1 attack. The fact that Ukraine was able to destroy such a large number of Russia's aircraft deep inside Russia territory demonstrates the effectiveness of such deep-strike programmes and taking the possibilities of drone warfare to another level. According to Thomas Shugart, an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Defense Programme at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and someone who served for over 25 years in the US Navy, where he last worked in the Defense Department's Office of Net Assessment: 'Imagine, on game-day, containers at railyards, on Chinese-owned container ships in port or offshore, on trucks parked at random properties…spewing forth thousands of drones that sally forth and at least mission-kill the crown jewels of the [US Air Force]… would be 'entirely feasible'. The America-specific warning issued by Shugart, who has previously written about the threat to airfields from drones and recommended specifically that key aircraft such as bombers should also have hardened shelters for just this sort of attack, could now resonate across geographies, including India. Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More
Straits Times
17-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Trump's Middle East visit raises Israel's anxieties
US President Donald Trump (left) looks on as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets the crowd during the Saudi-US investment forum in Riyadh on May 13. PHOTO: AFP WASHINGTON – One of the most eye-catching images from President Donald Trump's three-nation Arabian Gulf tour was the sight of Saudi, Emirati and Qatari fighter jets soaring alongside Air Force One , escorting the US presidential plane across the blue skies. It sent a clear message : Trust between America and its wealthy Gulf partners is deepening. Notably, Mr Trump's four-day itinerary excluded Israel, a move that has raised brows among foreign policy experts and pro-Israel advocates about the perceived repositioning of the US-Israel relationship. The tour was viewed with great concern in Israel, said Mr Shalom Lipner, a former official who has served several Israeli premiers – including incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu – at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem. Impressions matter, he told The Straits Times . 'Even if the president's primary focus is on doing business in the Gulf, not making a stop in Jerusalem is being perceived as a message in itself,' said Mr Lipner, who is now a senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council. The omission, which underscores the apparent divergence of opinion on how best to address regional challenges in Iran, Syria, Yemen and other places, appears all the more surprising given the enduring influence of the powerful and famous pro-Israel lobby in Washington. 'Famed or not, no interest group is, or was ever, omnipotent,' Mr Lipner said, remarking on the broad network of individuals, organisations and interest groups that seek to influence the US government and Congress to advance the interests of Israel. With a shift in American public opinion amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the rise of progressive and left-wing organisations, the lobby's influence has dipped. Now, it is often openly criticised. The discourse in Washington has changed greatly, noted Mr Lipner. 'Trump is in the driver's seat, and there's little room for discussion or dissent,' he said. 'There is room only to devise a path of accommodation with his objectives or to risk going it alone, without being able to depend credibly upon US support.' Israel was a stop in Mr Trump's first overseas trip of his first term but sidestepped in his second-term strategy, which has prioritised transactional diplomacy, experts said. Hundreds of billions of dollars in trade and defence deals were announced during his stops in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha this week . On Iran, the divergence is particularly stark. Both Washington and Jerusalem view Iran's nuclear ambitions as a major threat, but the Trump administration has leaned towards diplomatic engagement. The word in DC is that former national security advisor Mike Waltz was ousted at least partly due to his advocacy of total dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear programme. Mr Trump and some of his key Cabinet members reportedly support Iran having access to some kind of enrichment that allows a civilian nuclear programme. In contrast, Israel had hoped to secure Washington's support for pre-emptive military measures on nuclear sites of Iran, a country it views as an existential threat. The recent US understanding reached with the pro-Iran Houthi terrorist group is also not to Israel's liking. On May 5, the US and the Houthis agreed not to target each other, after seven weeks of US strikes on Yemen in response to Houthi missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis had shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and fired at ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier. The strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about US$1 billion ($1.3 billion) in the first month alone, US media has reported. But their deal to end the firing did not include an end to attacks on Israel, which has conducted retaliatory strikes on the Houthis. If the Trump administration is going to deal with the Houthis that leaves the Israelis out, the Israelis are going to be clear that they are not bound by it, said Dr Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). 'We saw Israel's spectacular raid on the airport in Sanaa. And I would expect that we'll see something like that again,' he said during a briefing on Mr Trump's trip. This is not the best moment in US-Israel relations, noted Mr Elliott Abrams, who was a Special Representative for Iran in Mr Trump's first term. 'I wouldn't call it a breach. Tensions rise and fall under every president,' said Mr Abrams, who is also a senior fellow at CFR. 'There's a concentration now because there may be disagreements about Gaza, Iran and the Houthis.' During his trip, Mr Trump also unveiled an arms sales package to Saudi Arabia worth nearly US$142 billion, with the White House calling it 'the largest defence cooperation agreement' in American history. Although it did not specify which arms the US would sell Saudi Arabia, F-35s are reportedly on the table. This has also stirred concern in Israel where observers point out that the US law requires that Israel maintain a 'Qualitative Military Edge' over its neighbours in the Middle East. Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East operating the F-35s. The space for Arab opinion in US policymaking has expanded, Dr Cook said. 'Think about it, the Saudis are playing a role in mediating with the Ukrainians and the Russians. The Emiratis have been instrumental in bringing Americans wrongfully imprisoned in Russia home. The Qataris have had a big role to play in Gaza and are trying to get to a ceasefire there. And now you have the Omanis, who are deeply involved in not only the nuclear negotiations but also the Houthis,' he said. 'It seems that the Trump administration sees America's partners in the Gulf as their kind of trusted interlocutors, not treaty allies in Europe or other partners. And it's a different look for American foreign policy to go to these Gulf states as mediators on issues, both within the region and beyond.' While Israel is increasingly anxious about being sidelined in regional calculations, the US focus has also prompted questions on the impact on China, which has been trying to position itself as an alternative broker for economic and diplomatic engagement in recent years. Mr Trump's visit is the first direct attempt to halt China's momentum and reestablish the US as the principal outside power shaping the future of the Gulf, said Ms Zineb Riboua, a research fellow at the Centre for Peace and Security in the Middle East, at the Hudson Institute. Mr Trump's decision to make his first major foreign visit to Riyadh rather than Brussels, London, or Tokyo is a deliberate signal that the US sees the Middle East as a vital theatre of strategic competition with China, she wrote in a Hudson Institute report . This shift is also visible in the administration's approach to Syria, she noted, calling Mr Trump's May 13 decision to lift sanctions on Damascus 'not a random concession' to the post-Assad regime. 'Rather, it is an attempt to re-enter a strategic theatre that the Obama administration ceded to China, Russia, and Iran,' she said. 'For years, Beijing has shielded (former president) Bashar al-Assad's Syria at the UN and positioned itself to lead post-war reconstruction efforts alongside Russian firms,' she said. 'The sanctions' removal signals a renewed American effort to prevent Beijing from monopolising a strategically central part of the Middle East.' Attention has also focused on Washington's readiness to allow Saudi Arabia access to advanced US semiconductors. This could be intended to shut China out of future Gulf infrastructure in artificial intelligence , surveillance, and cloud computing, according to Ms Riboua. 'These agreements are part of the administration's strategy to push back on China's expanding influence by making digital sovereignty central to US security partnerships,' she said. Mr Trump was less subtle about his messaging to the Arab nations. 'They were being coaxed very strongly by China, because this solved China's fuel problem forever,' he said in a May 16 interview with Fox News, referring to the Arab nations that supply about half of China's crude oil imports. 'They were going to China and that was going to be their 'parent,'' he said. 'And that's not happening any more.' Bhagyashree Garekar is The Straits Times' US bureau chief. Her previous key roles were as the newspaper's foreign editor (2020-2023) and as its US correspondent during the Bush and Obama administrations. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Roya News
13-05-2025
- Business
- Roya News
Trump arrives in Saudi Arabia for Gulf tour
Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday on the first leg of a Gulf tour that will also take him to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, eyeing business deals even as accords on the Middle East's hotspots will likely be harder to reach. The trip marks the US president's first major visit abroad of his second term, with the White House saying he looked forward to a "historic return" to the region. Eight years ago Trump also chose Saudi Arabia for his first overseas trip as president – when he memorably posed with a glowing orb and participated in a sword dance. His decision to once again bypass traditional Western allies to travel to the oil-rich Gulf states underscores their increasingly crucial geopolitical role – along with his own business relations in the region. Saudi fighter jets escorted Air Force One as Trump landed in the capital Riyadh. The Saudi royal family plans a lavish welcome for the 78-year-old billionaire, who will also address an investment forum. Trump will take part in a summit of Gulf Arab leaders Tuesday before heading to Qatar. In the days before the trip, the White House has played an instrumental part in hammering out a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, the release of an American captive in Gaza and holding another round of nuclear talks with Iran. Those initiatives came after a surprise announcement by Trump last week of agreeing to a truce with the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. 'Deals' But the focus during the tour of the Gulf will likely be locking down business agreements. "White House sources have indicated that the president will focus on 'deals'," wrote Daniel B. Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Trump will promote a vision where "extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges". The Gulf states have positioned themselves as key diplomatic partners during Trump's second term. Doha remains a major broker for negotiations between Hamas and 'Israel', while Saudi Arabia has facilitated talks on the war in Ukraine. Talk of returning to the kingdom has been circulating for months, with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowing to pour USD 600 billion into US trade and investments. "I'll be asking the crown prince, who's a fantastic guy, to round it out to around one trillion. I think they'll do that because we've been very good to them," Trump said in response to the offer. According to a Saudi official close to the defence ministry, Riyadh will push for securing the latest US F-35 fighter jets along with state-of-the-art air defence systems worth billions of dollars. "We will condition that the deliveries take place during Trump's term," the source told AFP. Efforts to push Saudi Arabia to recognise 'Israel' are not likely to feature high on the agenda this trip, with Riyadh insisting a Palestinian state must be established before a deal can be brokered. Iran, meanwhile, is likely to feature prominently during the visit, following a fourth round of talks in Oman over the weekend. Temporary 'gift' Controversy is also swirling over the president's plans to accept a luxury Boeing jet from the Qatari royal family for use as Air Force One. Late Sunday, Trump went on the offensive amid a wave of criticism, saying the plane was a temporary "gift".
Int'l Business Times
13-05-2025
- Business
- Int'l Business Times
Trump Starts Gulf Trip In Saudi Eyeing Deals
Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday on the first leg of a Gulf tour that will also take him to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, eyeing business deals even as accords on the Middle East's hotspots will likely be harder to reach. The trip marks the US president's first major visit abroad of his second term, with the White House saying he looked forward to a "historic return" to the region. Eight years ago Trump also chose Saudi Arabia for his first overseas trip as president -- when he memorably posed with a glowing orb and participated in a sword dance. His decision to once again bypass traditional Western allies to travel to the oil-rich Gulf states underscores their increasingly crucial geopolitical role -- along with his own business relations in the region. Saudi fighter jets escorted Air Force One as Trump landed in the capital Riyadh. The Saudi royal family plans a lavish welcome for the 78-year-old billionaire, who will also address an investment forum. Trump will take part in a summit of Gulf Arab leaders Tuesday before heading to Qatar. In the days before the trip, the White House has played an instrumental part in hammering out a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, the release of an American hostage in Gaza and holding another round of nuclear talks with Iran. Those initiatives came after a surprise announcement by Trump last week of agreeing to a truce with the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. But the focus during the tour of the Gulf will likely be locking down business agreements. "White House sources have indicated that the president will focus on 'deals'," wrote Daniel B. Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Trump will promote a vision where "extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges". The Gulf states have positioned themselves as key diplomatic partners during Trump's second term. Doha remains a major broker for negotiations between Hamas and Israel, while Saudi Arabia has facilitated talks on the war in Ukraine. Talk of returning to the kingdom has been circulating for months, with Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowing to pour $600 billion into US trade and investments. "I'll be asking the crown prince, who's a fantastic guy, to round it out to around one trillion. I think they'll do that because we've been very good to them," Trump said in response to the offer. According to a Saudi official close to the defence ministry, Riyadh will push for securing the latest US F-35 fighter jets along with state-of-the-art air defence systems worth billions of dollars. "We will condition that the deliveries take place during Trump's term," the source told AFP. On the ground in Saudi Arabia, residents expressed mixed feelings about what the trip would mean. "I expect that this visit will result in political decisions that will matter to the whole region," Khalifa Oneizi, a 47-year-old Riyadh resident, told AFP. Others were less confident. "I am not optimistic about this visit or its results," said Hamad Shahrani, a 62-year-old Saudi national. Efforts to push Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel are not likely to feature high on the agenda this trip, with Riyadh insisting a Palestinian state must be established before a deal can be brokered. Iran, meanwhile, is likely to feature prominently during the visit, following a fourth round of talks in Oman over the weekend. Controversy is also swirling over the president's plans to accept a luxury Boeing jet from the Qatari royal family for use as Air Force One. Late Sunday, Trump went on the offensive amid a wave of criticism, saying the plane was a temporary "gift". He later called the deal "a very public and transparent transaction", and on Monday said before leaving Washington for his trip: "I would never be one to turn down that kind of an offer."
New Indian Express
13-05-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
Trump heads to Middle East eyeing deals amid diplomatic offensive
'Deals' But the focus during the tour of the Gulf will likely be locking down business agreements. "White House sources have indicated that the president will focus on 'deals'," wrote Daniel B. Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi are expected to roll out the red carpet with a lavish royal welcome for the 78-year-old billionaire. "The president looks forward to embarking on his historic return to the Middle East" to promote a vision where "extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges", Trump's spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said ahead of the trip. The Gulf states have positioned themselves as key diplomatic partners during Trump's second term. Doha remains a major broker for negotiations between Hamas and Israel, while Saudi Arabia has facilitated talks on the war in Ukraine. Talk of returning to the kingdom has been circulating for months, with Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowing to pour $600 billion into US trade and investments. "I'll be asking the crown prince, who's a fantastic guy, to round it out to around one trillion. I think they'll do that because we've been very good to them," Trump said in response to the offer. According to a Saudi official close to the defence ministry, Riyadh will push for securing the latest US F-35 fighter jets along with state-of-the-art air defence systems worth billions of dollars. "We will condition that the deliveries take place during Trump's term," the source told AFP. Temporary 'gift' On the ground in Saudi Arabia, residents expressed mixed feelings about what the trip would mean. "I expect that this visit will result in political decisions that will matter to the whole region," Khalifa Oneizi, a 47-year-old Riyadh resident, told AFP. Others were less confident. "I am not optimistic about this visit or its results," said Hamad Shahrani, a 62-year-old Saudi national. Efforts to push Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel are not likely to feature high on the agenda this trip, with Riyadh insisting a Palestinian state must be established before a deal can be brokered. Iran, meanwhile, is likely to feature prominently during the visit, following a fourth round of talks in Oman over the weekend. Controversy is also swirling over the president's plans to accept a luxury Boeing jet from the Qatari royal family for use as Air Force One. Late Sunday, Trump went on the offensive amid a wave of criticism, saying the plane was a temporary "gift." He later called the deal "a very public and transparent transaction", and on Monday said before leaving Washington for his trip: "I would never be one to turn down that kind of an offer."
