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Asia Times
10-04-2025
- Asia Times
US Navy's carrier drone delay handing the domain to China
As the US Navy cautiously inches toward carrier-based unmanned aircraft, China is racing ahead with stealthy naval drones, threatening to tilt the balance of power in the Pacific. This month, The War Zone (TWZ) reported that Rear Admiral Michael 'Buzz' Donnelly of the US Navy's Air Warfare Division outlined a restrained approach to Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) at the recent Sea Air Space symposium in Washington, DC. While working with the US Air Force and Marine Corps, the Navy prioritizes the MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone and its operational integration over carrier-based CCAs. Donnelly explained that the Air Force leads in air vehicle and autonomy development, while the Marines emphasize manned-unmanned teaming via the F-35B. The Navy, trailing its US military counterparts, focuses on infrastructure and autonomy insights gained from the MQ-25. Carrier-specific integration challenges continue to hinder deployment despite the high potential of CCAs. Donnelly projected that initial CCA designs might emerge by the 2030s, contingent on the MQ-25's operational success. He noted the Navy favors more affordable, disposable drones over the Air Force's costly high-end CCAs. However, progress on classified Navy drone initiatives remains largely opaque. China's rapid advances in stealth unmanned carrier-based aircraft underscore the urgency for the US Navy to accelerate its efforts. Donnelly's remarks also raise concerns about the timeline for the F/A-XX sixth-generation fighter, envisioned to operate alongside CCAs. The delays reflect broader challenges in adapting unmanned systems to naval aviation. According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, the Navy's CCAs will share a common architecture with the Air Force to enable greater interoperability. Yet, the unique demands of carrier operations present serious obstacles. In a November 2022 article for the Drones peer-reviewed journal, Zixuan Liu and co-authors underscore that aircraft carrier decks are more constrained, risk-prone and complex than land-based airfields. They note the necessity for precise coordination of aircraft categories, support equipment, and launch-recovery sequences to reduce collision risks, which are magnified when incorporating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Liu and colleagues stress that these constraints will require highly automated and optimized scheduling systems, especially as UAVs become more autonomous and numerous in carrier environments. Despite these challenges, the US Navy is taking preliminary steps toward integration. In August 2024, the Navy Times reported that the USS George H W Bush was outfitted with the first Unmanned Air Warfare Center (UAWC) to support MQ-25 operations. Similar upgrades are planned for the USS Carl Vinson, USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Ronald Reagan, signaling an institutional shift toward unmanned platforms. Following the MQ-25's full integration into carrier operations—projected for 2026—a 'Stingray to the Fight' program will expand the drone's capabilities, including the addition of an internal mission bay, according to Sam LaGrone in an April 2023 USNI News article. In the long term, the Navy aims for drones to comprise up to 60% of its carrier air wings, as Rear Admiral Gregory Harris noted in an April 2021 TWZ article. For now, the MQ-25 is the lynchpin of the Navy's unmanned aviation efforts. In a January 2025 TWZ article, Lew Callaway emphasizes the MQ-25's tanker role as critical to extending the range and persistence of carrier-based strike aircraft like the F/A-18. He points out that China's sophisticated air defenses and long-range missiles make traditional aerial tankers and island-based refueling stations increasingly vulnerable. The MQ-25 offers a more survivable alternative to sustain carrier operations deep into contested areas of the Pacific. However, the MQ-25's limitations as a strike platform are equally significant. In a July 2023 Proceedings article, Josh Hano notes that the drone was not designed for speed, stealth, or agility. While the aircraft could theoretically carry precision weapons in an internal bay, its structure and systems are ill-suited to evolve into a frontline unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). Hano instead argues that the MQ-25 should evolve into a multirole support platform—performing anti-submarine operations (ASW), electronic warfare (EW), intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), or even acting as a decoy launcher to confuse enemy defenses. Strategically, the delay in the F/A-XX program casts a shadow over CCA development. Developing a complementary unmanned wing without the F/A-XX as a manned command aircraft doesn't make strategic sense. The F/A-XX is planned to replace the F/A-18 and serve as the backbone of future US carrier air wings, which are expected to enter service in the 2030s, but its timeline faces uncertainty. In March 2024, Breaking Defense reported that the Navy deferred approximately US$1 billion in FY2025 funding for F/A-XX research and development, citing a need to prioritize current fleet readiness. The decision reflects a broader struggle to balance immediate operational needs with long-term modernization. Part of the reluctance to commit significant funding may stem from recent procurement misfires. In a December 2024 article for 1945, Robert Farley links US Navy caution on the F/A-XX to a string of troubled programs, including the Columbia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), Zumwalt-class destroyers, Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), and Constellation-class frigates. These projects were all plagued by cost overruns, shifting requirements and underwhelming performance, making policymakers wary of another costly gamble. Farley also suggests that the future of the F/A-XX is entangled with existential questions about aircraft carrier relevance. He references lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, where large warships proved vulnerable and manned aircraft had limited operational impact. Such developments fuel skepticism about investing heavily in a carrier-based fighter that might lack a viable mission. The delays and hesitations risk handing the technological initiative to China. In a February 2022 Pacific Forum article, Loro Horta writes that no military now integrates drones as systematically as the People's Liberation Army (PLA). China treats drones as integral to its combat architecture, using them to compensate for weaknesses in manned platforms and to saturate adversaries with cost-effective systems. Conversely, US Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks acknowledged in a MIT Technology Review interview this month that the US faces difficulties in integrating drones into joint force operations and scaling production at the level China can achieve. In December 2023, TWZ reported that China's GJ-11 Sharp Sword UCAV had been observed at a PLA carrier test facility near a mockup of the Fujian-class carrier. The GJ-11's stealth profile, large internal bays and mission versatility (ISR, EW and strike) indicate it is a key element in China's naval drone plans. Launching such aircraft would require catapult-equipped carriers, such as the Fujian. PLA Navy (PLAN) destroyer commander Chi Jianjun, quoted in The Maritime Executive in January 2025, confirmed that drone platforms are being deployed across China's warships—from carriers and destroyers to amphibious assault vessels like the Type 75 and Type 76 classes. This widespread rollout reflects a coordinated effort to integrate unmanned systems into naval operations fully. As the US Navy treads carefully, slowed by strategic caution and budgetary friction, China's aggressive pursuit of stealthy naval drones threatens to redefine carrier warfare. Without a more decisive shift, the US risks falling behind in a domain it once dominated.
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Yahoo
Navy Isn't Scrambling To Field Loyal Wingman Drones Like The Air Force
We just got a clearer picture of where the Navy's air arm stands when it comes to its progress — or lack thereof — in developing and fielding carrier-based Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) that will fly primarily alongside the service's fighter aircraft in a force-multiplying role. Rear Adm. Michael 'Buzz' Donnelly, Director of the Air Warfare Division (N98) within Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, was asked about when CCAs will be integrated into the carrier air wing and what their primary focus will be during a panel at the annual Sea Air Space symposium in Washington, D.C. today, at which TWZ was in attendance. His response paints a picture of how the Navy is not heavily focusing on this capability right now. Instead, it is putting more effort into its MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone, and its supporting infrastructure, while allowing the other services, especially the USAF, to prove out the CCA concept. In other words, don't expect CCAs on supercarrier decks anything soon. Donnelly stated: 'The United States Navy is in a tri-service memorandum of agreement and understanding with our sister services, the U.S. Air Force, as well as the Marine Corps, and we are developing that capability together. Each of us are focused on a different aspect of that. The Air Force is leading and very forward leaning in the development of the actual air vehicle and the autonomy that goes in those for execution of mission. Marine Corps is working closely to develop manned-unmanned teaming between platforms such as the F-35, the F-35B being the baseline for their aviation capability right now. And the United States Navy is working based on our pathway of unmanned into the fleet with MQ-25. The baseline architecture that will be required to enable those capabilities, as well as the ground control station that we are currently utilizing for MQ-25 we expect to become the standard for all of these systems. As we work together for the United States Navy, I will tell you that we are definitely in the follow of those three services as we look to see how Air Force is developing and fielding things, quite frankly, in a more simple operational environment than what is required for a ship-based system. We know that we're going to leverage what we learned in MQ-25 as a pathway of unmanned into the Carrier Air Wing and operating in the fleet over the next coming years, and then between what we see as mission capability, understanding of autonomy and the function of that in the mission capabilities, and what we've learned with MQ-25, I think it's foreseeable that we're going to see initial designs and capabilities fielding to the fleet in the 2030s.' So, while we have indications that the Navy may not be moving as quickly on CCAs as the USAF, this is our most comprehensive update on the service's thinking. Basically, the Navy is looking to leverage the other services' trials and errors and will make informed decisions based on that data down the line. Just integrating the MQ-25 into the air wing is a huge hurdle to overcome, and some of those lessons and technologies could also feed in the opposite direction, back into the USAF and Marines' CCA programs. Rear Adm. Donnelly is certainly right about how integrating CCAs onto a carrier is a tougher proposition than doing so at a large static airfield. At the same time, one could easily argue that there is no better application for CCAs and advanced unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs) in general than the carrier. Mixing manned and unmanned capabilities on the same vessel is arguably harder than just deploying unmanned capabilities alone. It's worth noting that China is racing ahead with its advanced carrier-based unmanned capabilities, jumping right into stealthy UCAVs capable of independent and cooperative operations, and not just for its fixed-wing carriers but also its largest amphibious assault ships. The United States has no analog for this capability. Carrier-based UCAVs that were supposed to have been procured over a decade ago were axed entirely in one of the strangest moves in modern military history that you can read all about here. For the Navy, its multi-role stealth UCAV was replaced with what is now the MQ-25 tanker. Promotional video for the shipborne version of the GJ-11 drone shown by the AVIC at the China Air Show. — 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) October 7, 2021 The Navy is currently looking to have its air wings made up of more drones than manned aircraft by sometime in the later end of the 2030s, so CCAs and similar systems are still likely to come. But for now, the service is concentrating on getting the drone it has already ordered — which is late and over budget — integrated into the carrier environment while taking more of a wait-and-see approach for others. Of course, this is taking Donnelly's statement at face value. It's unclear what the Navy is doing in the classified domain. Still, his remarks today were very clear and blunt on the issue. This also calls into question the F/A-XX sixth-generation fighter aircraft the service is supposedly about to award a contract for anytime now. That aircraft has been slated to work alongside CCAs as a key feature. The timing of its development and the Navy's eventual movement on that capability remains murky at best. Since Navy and Air Force fighter aircraft will be able to use each other's CCAs, it's possible that leveraging Air Force types could be a gateway early on in the naval fighter's service if the Navy's own CCA drones have not arrived in force on carrier decks by that time. Still, the carrier not having its own CCAs would severely limit the utility and applicability of the F/A-XX's manned-unmanned teaming capabilities. Finally, from much of what we have seen, the Navy seems to be interested in cheaper and more disposable CCAs than the Air Force, which is pursuing a much higher-end capability with unit costs in the tens of millions. This came up again today at the conference, with the possibility of buying CCAs with very short airframe life at lower costs being an attractive option for the service. So, while much of the command and control architecture and some of the tactics, logistics and procedures may port over, the USAF may end up with a very different CCA vision than the Navy and possibly the USMC. We'll have to see how this all plays out, but it seems clear that the Navy thinks it has enough drone challenges on its hands at this time with the MQ-25 and that it can wait to take on more. Contact the author: Tyler@
