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New York Times
23-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL trade grades: Ducks cut bait on Trevor Zegras, selling low to the Flyers
By Corey Pronman, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman Philadelphia Flyers get: F Trevor Zegras Anaheim Ducks get: F Ryan Poehling, 2025 second-round pick (No. 45), 2026 fourth-round pick Corey Pronman: Zegras' time in Anaheim was tumultuous. After a sterling rookie year where he dazzled, he hit some bumps and had frustrated his coaching staff over the past few years. He's a player with elite skill and hockey sense. NHL scouts have wondered if he can be a consistent 70- to 80-point player with how ridiculously skilled and creative he is. He can be a legit top-six forward and benefit a power play. But he also has noticeable warts in his game. He's a below-average NHL skater who takes too many shifts and games off and rubs people the wrong way. Philadelphia has been searching for a center, and while Zegras has played center before, it's questionable if he can pivot in a major role on a good NHL team. Advertisement It's a dramatic decline in value as well for a player Anaheim was hoping to get a high first-round pick or major young asset in return for when it first put him on the market. Zegras supporters will argue it's a potential buy-low scenario for the Flyers, given his massive potential, NHL track record and reasonable contract. His critics will say he's not a 'winner' and it's addition by subtraction for the Philadelphia while opening up opportunities for the Ducks' plethora of talented young forwards. I understand the latter argument, but the caliber of player plus the low price paid for him seems a little off. This is a nice gamble by the Flyers, who gave up very little, and if it doesn't work out they could simply move him again in a rising cap environment. Owen Tippett had similar issues in Florida, and the Flyers did good work turning him into a useful NHL forward. Ryan Poehling is a 2026 free agent. He's a hard-working center with good skill, but he's not dynamic in terms of his pace or creativity. He's a bottom-six forward. Flyers grade: A- Ducks grade: C+ Sean Gentille: In the summer of 2023, Zegras was 22 years old and coming off his second straight season with at least 20 goals and 60 points — one in which he shared the cover of EA's NHL 23. Not bad. Around that same time, Ryan Poehling was non-qualified by the Pittsburgh Penguins, the equivalent of a team saying 'thanks, but no thanks.' Not good. Now, somehow, three years later, Poehling was the primary player the Ducks brought back in a trade that, on their end, was more about dumping Zegras' salary than anything else. The fact that Anaheim moved on from Zegras — Michigan goals and all — shouldn't surprise anyone. He's been too frequently injured and too frequently ineffective for most of the past two seasons, killing his momentum on and off the ice. Playing for Dallas Eakins and Greg Cronin probably didn't help; Zegras is an imperfectly electric player, and ditching too much of that on the road to two-way responsibility feels like it was a Pyrrhic victory. Zegras' name has been part of trade rumors for years. If this is what he's worth, one line of logic goes, this is what he's worth. Advertisement Still, if you assume that to be true, the question for Anaheim should be, 'why bother?' Why bother moving a 24-year-old with high-end offensive upside and (dampened) star power if the return is a decent fourth-line center, the 45th pick in one draft and a fourth-rounder from another? The best argument is that Zegras counts $5.75 million against the cap for one more season and future contract talks, given his career arc, could get bizarre. The Ducks also have extensions for other young forwards — namely Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish — to consider down the line. On the other hand, they're still more than $36 million under the salary cap, according to PuckPedia. With only Pittsburgh starting the summer in traditional 'seller' mode, why not wait and see how the market looks in a week or two? It's hard to imagine it being worse. That fact alone makes it impossible to give Anaheim anything other than a mediocre mark here. It's not just about the underwhelming return; it's about the road that brought them to it. The Flyers, meanwhile, got themselves a lottery ticket with solid odds. If Zegras' health holds up, his worst-case scenario probably lands him as an offense-only middle-six winger with power-play utility. His upside: the exact sort of high-end, top-six center that they've been unable to add during their rebuild. The Athletic, pre-trade, put their center depth chart at second from the bottom in the NHL. No matter what, Philadelphia desperately needed another potential offensive star to pair with Matvei Michkov, maybe on the same line, maybe not, and Zegras has a shot at filling the bill. Those sorts of players are best added through the draft. If that's not an option — and for the Flyers, it doesn't seem to be — then it's time to seek a different route. There's plenty to like about the one they've chosen. It's not just about the player; it's about the fit. Flyers grade: A Ducks grade: D+ Shayna Goldman: The big question around Zegras over the past few years is whether he has the chops to be a true franchise cornerstone to build around. At this point, it doesn't seem to be the case. But that doesn't mean the Ducks should have shipped him off in an imbalanced deal. Zegras has his flaws — he isn't a perfect play-driver and has some real defensive gaps in his game. After making some improvements in his own zone in a condensed 2023-24, he took a step back this past season with the Ducks, allowing 0.26 more expected goals against per 60 relative to the rest of the team. And unlike years past, the offense wasn't enough to make up for it. Defense is a team-wide problem in Anaheim, and it seems to be overwhelming Zegras at this point. Pair that with some of the comps for Zegras at 25 years old — from Robby Fabbri and Chris Tierney to Sam Gagner — and there is reason to worry about his trajectory from here. Advertisement But even if Zegras isn't worth the same hype that he once was, it doesn't make enough sense to sell this low. Even if management wanted a deal done sooner than later, to go into next season with a clean slate, there is still an entire offseason ahead. Ryan Poehling addresses the Ducks' bottom-six need for more defensive upside, but him plus a second-rounder doesn't thread the needle enough. Because even if Zegras isn't meant to be the No. 1 center of a contender, his offensive strengths can be worth betting on in a different top-six capacity. Playoff teams still need complementary talent around their big guns, and there are signs that Zegras can be that. His creativity and puck-moving ability, which still tracks well according to AllThreeZones, are worth investing in. Even though Zegras' value has declined, it makes sense for a rebuilding team like the Flyers. Philadelphia has defensive structure and strong two-way forwards, like Noah Cates and Sean Couturier. What they need is more high-octane offensive skill around Michkov and more depth down the middle, so he checks both of those boxes. No matter what, this is still a gamble for the Flyers. But it's a low-risk, high-return bet worth investing in. Flyers grade: B+ Ducks grade: C-
New York Times
04-06-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Times
Stanley Cup Final predictions, NHL playoff format, officiating, 2026 Olympics and more
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff No, it's not 2024. It might feel that way, however, as the Florida Panthers continue their quest to win a second straight championship on Wednesday night when they open a rematch of the Stanley Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers. Advertisement A familiar matchup calls for something different, which is why we knew we had to go deeper, make this more interesting, more fun than just picking the winner and who will get the Conn Smythe Trophy — don't worry, we do that, too. Beyond that, we had The Athletic's NHL staff give their opinions on playoff officiating, the idea of changing the postseason format, the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics and next year's Stanley Cup champion. Here are the results of the survey, with analysis and critique from senior writers Sean Gentille, James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger. Let's get into it. Figures are rounded and some staff comments have been edited for length and clarity. Lazerus: A coin flip sounds just about right, though I still lean Florida based on the Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Stuart 'Box of Chocolates' Skinner. Also, if Darnell Nurse or Evan Bouchard try to break anyone's foot in the final, something tells me Florida will actually respond. This will be a very different series for Edmonton than the Western Conference final. Florida is mean, nasty, physical, tested and remarkably rested for a team entering its third straight Stanley Cup Final — everything Dallas wasn't. Gentille: I told myself at the start of all this that whichever team won the first-round matchup between Florida and Tampa Bay would make the final, and that I couldn't trust Skinner to hold up over the course of a full postseason. That all still checks out — but most of all, I'm done picking against the Panthers until they lose another series. They have to show that they can't do it. Granger: Tampa Bay looked like perhaps the most complete team in the league entering the playoffs, and the Panthers steamrolled them. Carolina was playing so well, I believed in the Hurricanes more than ever before heading into the Eastern Conference final, and Florida demolished them. Edmonton is a great team, but this Florida squad has made a habit of making great teams look bad. Advertisement Mirtle: All right, I'll admit it, I'm going Oilers in seven. Something about the way Edmonton has decimated three good teams in a row just says team of destiny to me this year. Or more like a player of destiny, given how focused and determined Connor McDavid looks. Goldman: I have picked against the Oilers every round and have been wrong, but … I still am picking against them here. I think the series goes seven again, and maybe in less dramatic fashion than last year. The Zach Hyman injury is what holds me back, despite McDavid hitting that next level in Round 3 that I think we were all waiting to see. Lazerus: Sam Bennett leads the postseason with 10 goals and influences the game as much as any player on the Panthers. Perhaps no individual player is a better fit for his team than Bennett and the Panthers. If he pops a game-winning goal or two in this series, we're all going to look pretty silly when he wins the Conn Smythe. (And some GM is going to look even sillier when he gives him a seven-year, $77 million contract.) Gentille: I went with Aleksander Barkov. That took some degree of projection, but he's the leading scorer on the team I think is going to win the series, and he's a name-brand guy who's already had a couple of major moments in the playoffs thus far, most recently in the third period of Florida's clincher against the Hurricanes. Granger: Bobrovsky leads all goalies with 40 playoff wins over the last three seasons. The next-closest is Jake Oettinger with 29. He also leads all goalies with 36.71 goals saved above expected over that span, more than 10 clear of the next goalie. If Florida wins, he should get his Conn Smythe to sit next to his two Vezina trophies. Mirtle: Leon Draisaitl feels low to me, given how close he's been to McDavid for a lot of this run. And McDavid won last year, so maybe that sways a few voters to change it up a little if they're close. Goldman: Echoing Sean on this one with Barkov, but for a slightly different reason: if Florida wins again, it's likely because Barkov's line has slowed down McDavid or Draisaitl. That's what could separate him from someone like Bennett in voting. A bad call in the playoffs always gets big attention, and this year, the hockey world is buzzing every time the rule book seems to be ignored in a game. Our panel did not go easy on their grading. 'As bad as usual. Inconsistent rule book with the added bonus of prison rules in high-leverage games. By 'letting them play,' the officials create an advantage to the team that breaks the most rules when the games matter most. No other sport treats the rule book as optional.' 'They're officiating the score and situation, not the rules. A penalty is a penalty; it doesn't matter when it happened in a game or if a team is ahead or behind. This isn't new. It's always this way. And it's no secret the whistles will be in Saskatchewan and Cuba instead of Edmonton and Sunrise for the Cup Final. The 'let them play' motto is nonsense. Let them play under the rules.' 'The lack of consistency from game to game and series to series makes it very difficult for players to understand where the line is.' 'I don't know if following the rule book to the letter would actually create a game most people want to watch. Players do take advantage of that wiggle room in the playoffs, and when 'letting them play' goes against a team you're invested in, there are understandably intense emotions and reactions in such high-stakes games. But I think consistency is more the key measure to grading officials, and I haven't had major issues with the refs in these playoffs by that standard. It has been interesting to see some embellishment calls — that was not something I would have anticipated, and it feels like a particularly difficult call to be consistent on. The officials will never be perfect, of course, and there is usually a call or two in each game worthy of scrutiny. But that's part of the game and the fine margins of playoff hockey.' 'Don't we complain about officiating every year? And it's still bad? At this point, apathy has long set in over officiating.' 'It's far from perfect, but the officials have also become the whipping boys for every fan base that's sour about how the postseason went. 'We want consistency!' No, you want the calls to go your way, just like everyone else. At least own it.' Advertisement Lazerus: Hey! I wrote about this! Gentille: It's been worse. Also, after decades as a fan and then someone who covers the league, I've lost the capacity to get all that mad over officiating, barring something egregiously awful at a terrible time. Which means we're about to get something egregiously awful at a terrible time. Goldman: The problem is that the bar is so low with NHL officiating — we all expect a lot of mistakes, and this year is no different. There's been controversy in pretty much every series Florida has been a part of because of how they walk the line, and that conversation is bound to continue in the final. I think the big difference from years past is that there haven't been as many controversies surrounding things such as goalie interference because most of the challenges have been questionable in the first place. A first-round matchup of two heavyweights in this year's playoffs, the Avalanche and Stars, reignited the debate on whether the NHL should change its playoff format. So we polled our writers. Eight staff members simply wrote '1 vs. 8.' 'Bring back the 1 vs. 8 format. Never found an issue with it when it was changed to division-based to supposedly inject existing rivalries with rocket fuel. I like the occasional variance that playoff matchups brought with 1 vs. 8.' 'They should seed each side 1-8, and they never should have stopped doing that.' 'Everyone in the league and 95 percent of fans — I know this because I asked on social media — want the 1 vs. 8 format. It shouldn't be this hard.' 'I've been in favor of the divisional rivalries. But this format has led to too much repetition among conference finalists. NHL should adopt the NBA format, including the play-in for seeds 7-10. There's nothing wrong with stealing a good idea. It won't dilute the playoffs. And it rewards the top six teams with time off at the start of the playoffs.' 'I don't need a play-in or anything like that — there aren't enough good teams to justify that — but it should be seeded 1-8.' 'I never minded 1 vs. 8 when that was the format and don't have a huge opposition to it, but I think there's a little too much blame being placed on the format/seeding for certain teams' outcomes. Sure, Tampa and Toronto would have been better off not drawing the Panthers in the first or second round, but they were going to have to play them eventually to make a serious run. Going 1 vs. 8 in the West would have kept us from matching up two favorites in Dallas and Colorado in Round 1, but two of the Western Conference series would have remained the same, and a 1 vs. 8 format would have still pitted the Stars against the Oilers (the eventual conference final) in that first round as a 3 vs. 6 matchup. The eventual East final (Carolina vs. Florida) would have also been a first-round 4 vs. 5 matchup. In hindsight, the short series would indicate maybe that would have been better in this case. But with enough good teams, someone is always in what feels like 'too hard' of a first-round draw. Getting tough, dramatic series in the first round is a good thing, not something to be wished away, even though the short conference finals were disappointing. And while certain teams surely can get tougher early matchups than seems 'fair' based on the regular-season standings, the bottom line is if you can't win that matchup, you can't win the Stanley Cup.' 'The 82-game regular season should matter and the fans want a return to 1 vs. 8. The current playoff format has not worked. It's time to reward the work that players put into the regular season and to respond to the fans for a change.' 'The divisional alignment is pitched as rivalry-forming, but I don't think NHL players need an extra pretense to compete with each other over the course of a seven-game playoff series. In practice, it creates high-quality matchups earlier in the playoffs instead of saving them for the conference finals. Is this better for TV revenue? Is this better for selling outsiders on the wonder of playoff hockey? Or just a meaningless way of devaluing regular season performance in the name of a divisional rival storyline that few people seem to care about?' Advertisement Lazerus: Conferences mean so little these days. Let's just go 1-16 already. Gentille: I also want to see a test drive of a seeds 7-10, NBA-style play-in tournament. It rewards better teams, creates stakes down the stretch, adds revenue and works well as a TV event. Granger: I disagree with you both and want my old 1 vs. 8 back in both conferences. And while we're at it, move Detroit back to the West. Mirtle: Add the play-in, go 1 vs. 8, and suddenly there's a nice advantage to having a good regular season again. Goldman: Mostly on the same page as Mirtle; 1-8 is absolutely the way to go, but the play-in, I think, needs to be very limited: seeds eight and nine have a three-game wild card series. Any other playoff expansion waters it down way too much. Looking ahead, the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics are scheduled for next year and after this year's 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, there is a lot of intrigue. Rosters will begin to roll out on June 15, with each country expected to name its initial six players, and the rest of the roster expected in December. Lazerus: I still don't trust Canada's goaltending, but Connor Hellebuyck in the second round and Jake Oettinger in the third round didn't exactly fill Americans with confidence, either. Gentille: Hellebuyck and Oettinger could've gotten their teams swept and I still wouldn't have picked against the U.S. here. Granger: After that 4 Nations Face-Off, I'm just pumped to watch the Tkachuk brothers as teammates again, and hope the Olympic-style rules don't dampen the fun. Mirtle: I'm outnumbered here! Until Canada loses a best-on-best, they're winning them all on paper. Especially while Sidney Crosby is around. Goldman: Maybe losing 4 Nations will light a fire under Team USA … but I can't see Crosby losing in what is likely his last Olympics. To close things out, we went back to where we started — Lord Stanley — and asked who will win the Stanley Cup next season? Lazerus: This was harder than I expected. While I'm sure Florida and Edmonton will be in the mix again, it's tough to pick yet another deep run for each of them. Picking Dallas or Carolina, as usual, feels like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football. And after that, every team has a lot of question marks. It could be a wide-open field next year. Or it could be between the same few teams again. Advertisement Gentille: Someday, we'll all be right about the Stars. Granger: The Panthers have some major pending UFAs this summer. Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, Nate Schmidt and deadline rental Brad Marchand are all on expiring deals. Plus, Bobrovsky will be 37 before the season begins. Having said all of that, my money is still on Florida. Mirtle: Let us at least see free agency first … feels like mass upheaval is coming this offseason with so many teams with tons of cap room. Points to whoever was picking the Wild, as they're finally out of buyout jail. Goldman: I'll buy the Stars if someone else is behind the bench … until then, I'm super curious to see what a team like Tampa Bay does to keep its window open for another year. Here's how our first-, second- and third-round predictions held up, with the actual result of the series, the percent of voters who picked the right team and the percent who picked the right team and number of games: (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Patrick Smith, Harry How / Getty Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL Western Conference final preview: Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman Everyone loves a rematch until things start to go stale — and this year's Western Conference final is a nice blend of holdover talent, new blood and fresh storylines. Edmonton's megapowers are back … but all of a sudden, they have a more well-rounded supporting cast. Dallas' deep cast of quality NHL players is mainly intact … and now they have a new alpha dog leading the pack. Advertisement Can Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl hurdle Dallas on their way to another Stanley Cup Final? Will Mikko Rantanen and co. flip the script? It's time to see who's the best in this year's West. You guessed it, folks — it's another close series. Half the series in these playoffs have featured 55-45 odds or tighter. It's coin-flip city, and the clash between the Stars and Oilers likely will be no exception. Maybe it comes down to luck, maybe it comes down to who wants it more, maybe it comes down to which team brings its best at the right time. From the outset, though, it's anybody's to lose. Sorry if that's boring analysis, but that's how it often is at this stage of the playoffs — and the hockey is better for it. Series aren't won on paper, but that's especially true when two teams are so closely matched. At full strength, the Oilers are probably the better team and carry a slight edge for a reason. They showed as much last spring and could do so again this year, given how they've rolled recently. But the Oilers won't be at full strength to start and the Stars have home-ice advantage. That could be enough for revenge. Few teams can stack up to the Stars' plus-36 Offensive Rating. The Oilers are one of the few; their plus-50 Offensive Rating leads the entire playoff field. The Oilers were one of the best offense-generating teams at five-on-five in the regular season; their 2.88 xGF/60 ranked second to the Hurricanes. But Edmonton struggled to convert those chances into goals, especially after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. That hasn't been a problem this postseason, though. The Oilers have flipped a switch and poured on offense against their opponents through two rounds, converting at a rate of 2.99 GF/60. That five-on-five offense helped make up for a power play that only converted once in Round 2. After a few years of being unstoppable on the advantage, the Oilers' power play was a lot more human this year. It was a difference-maker in Round 1, but wasn't nearly as effective against Vegas. Advertisement The story is the opposite for the Stars — a red-hot power play has helped make up for their less-than-stellar five-on-five scoring, despite an uptick in expected goal creation against the Jets. The gap closes between these two teams defensively. Regular-season numbers work against the Stars, who struggled post-4 Nations with Miro Heiskanen sidelined. Dallas was far from perfect in its own zone against the Avalanche, but tightened up in Round 2. Jake Oettinger stood tall behind that defense, especially in short-handed situations. The Oilers had the slight edge in expected goal suppression in the regular season. But there was even less separation between these teams at five-on-five in Round 2, both in terms of expected and actual goals against. The penalty kill is a different story; despite making improvements between rounds, Edmonton's goalies haven't been as stout. Can Mikko Rantanen tilt the scales in Dallas' favor after last year's loss? In the 2024 Western Conference final, Edmonton outscored Dallas 17-14. That gap, as we've seen on a couple different occasions this spring, is a period's worth of work for Rantanen — so the answer here, on some level, is an obvious 'yes.' Thanks, everyone. We can move on. Forget being glib, though. Rantanen is a needle-mover, a big-game player, a capital-G Guy — any bit of shorthand used to describe someone who can swing the result of a playoff series applies to Dallas' newest foundational piece. He was the difference in Round 1 against Colorado, leading Dallas in goals (five) and assists (seven), and putting up a hat trick in Game 7. In Round 2 against the Jets, he again led them in points (seven) and had a larger impact at five-on-five; the Stars won his minutes 6-1, up from 5-3 against the Avalanche. If Dallas could build a time machine and port Rantanen over to last year's matchup, they'd have made the Stanley Cup Final. In that series, Dallas got outclassed in terms of top-end talent. McDavid and Draisaitl, as they are in most instances, were in a galaxy unto themselves. The Stars' top line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Tyler Seguin drove play (74 percent expected goal share, 42-30 edge in attempts), but Dallas only won their minutes 3-1. With an elite finisher such as Rantanen on Hintz's right wing, it's easy to imagine a handful more of those chances turning into goals. Advertisement What really hurt the Stars, though, was that they got beat in depth scoring. Seven Stars scored goals, compared to 11 for the Oilers. Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski — crucial top-six pieces — were both kept off the scoresheet entirely. The Hintz line drove play but couldn't score enough, Dallas' other two primary lines (Wyatt Johnston between Logan Stankoven and Jamie Benn, Duchene between Mason Marchment and Pavelski) were chasing the puck too frequently, and the Duchene line was a mess. An unquestioned first-liner such as Rantanen helps everyone else slot in a bit more comfortably. A big part of the reason Edmonton eliminated Dallas in six was also, of course, the power play; Dallas put up a goose egg in 28 minutes at five-on-four, didn't do a good job of creating chances (2.25 expected goals) and gave up a short-handed goal. Their counterparts scored four times in 14:36. It's tough to win with that sort of disparity. This spring, Dallas has the No. 3 power play in terms of efficiency (30.8 percent success rate) and goals/60 (11.4), both up dramatically from 2024. Rantanen, naturally, is a big part of that, tying with Thomas Harley for the team lead in power-play points. None of this is meant to say that Rantanen makes Dallas a lock. Far from it — with Carolina and then initially with the Stars, we saw him struggle to combine play-driving and finishing. It was, at times, one or the other. If he maintains his level from the first two rounds, though, odds are good that this year's version of Stars-Oilers follows a different path. Can Edmonton's depth keep shining? Star power leads the way in hockey, especially in the playoffs. But any team with hopes of going on a deep run needs some scoring depth. This year's regular-season team didn't have it. It was McDavid, Draisaitl and a cast of Other Guys. McDavid and Draisaitl both crossed the 100-point threshold. No other forward even reached 50. It was a throwback to past iterations of the Oilers who had fallen short. Advertisement That said, there's a lot more support to go around this postseason. Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman are back to being reliable contributors. Connor Brown's speedy play has chipped in another seven points. Corey Perry has scored five goals so far, while Adam Henrique added another three. Even Kasperi Kapanen, who was inserted into the lineup for Game 5, has made an impact with the series-clinching goal in Game 6. The players are picking up the pace around their core, and coach Kris Knoblauch has pushed the right buttons with lineup adjustments to deepen this team's approach. Going into the playoffs, the Oilers were projected to have only four above-average forwards based on their Net Rating. Instead, they have 11 through two rounds. If the depth can keep clicking, it should help move the needle against an opponent as deep as the Stars. On paper, we know the key arguments for both sides. The Oilers have the best players in the series; the Stars have more good players beyond them. That's at least how it's supposed to go, and while it may still go that way, the script has been flipped so far. The best player in these playoffs is arguably playing for the Stars. The deepest team in these playoffs is arguably the Oilers. For both sides, it feels like a new wrinkle, one that reveals a path to prevail. It also means the usual strengths have room for improvement. For McDavid and Draisaitl, we're speaking in relative terms. With a Net Rating north of plus-4.0 in these playoffs, both players have been just as valuable as Rantanen on the other side. In fact, they've been exactly as good as you'd expect, playing right in line with their projected pace. They're not quite as offensively prolific, but are doing more than enough defensively to make up for it, Draisaitl especially. His plus-1.4 Defensive Rating leads all forwards. McDavid and Draisaitl have been exceptional. As usual. As expected. But in the playoffs, they have a reputation for being otherworldly, elevating their games to heights that felt impossible. Per 82 games, McDavid's Net Rating jumped 10.6 goals in the playoffs over the last three years. Draisaitl's jumped 7.6 goals. We haven't seen that same elevation in these playoffs. Not yet, anyway. Advertisement It's an unfairly high bar, but for the two best players in the world, it might be one they have to rise to, again, in order to beat Dallas. On the other hand … knowing what they're capable of, knowing they haven't hit that point, and knowing what's at stake is a terrifying trifecta. Expect greatness in this series. That means Dallas' strengths have to be equal to the task, and there's a lot more to worry about on their side of the ledger. Aside from Rantanen, the Stars' plethora of talented forwards have not been good enough. Hintz, riding shotgun next to Rantanen, has been solid enough. That he's second among forwards with 10 points — nine back of Rantanen — is troubling. During the regular season, the Stars had nine forwards scoring at a 50-point pace or higher. During the playoffs, they have just three. And Johnston, with eight points in 13 games, only barely qualifies. Mikael Granlund at seven is close, too. It's a low bar given the talent the Stars have, one that their talented forward group has struggled to clear. Duchene, who scored 30 goals and 82 points this year, has zero goals and five assists. Seguin has five points in 13 games, Marchment has four and Benn has only three. Robertson has a lone secondary assist in his six games since returning. We can cut Seguin and Robertson some slack, given they're coming off serious injuries and probably aren't 100 percent. But this team is supposed to be deep enough to withstand that. So far so good, but it can't just be the Rantanen show against Edmonton. Part of the struggle is Dallas' blue line, which was a bit of a horror show before Heiskanen's return. Harley has been a revelation and a key factor to Dallas surviving Heiskanen's injury, but the rest of the group didn't hold up well. Now that the team's top steed is back — and back to his usual level after his Game 6 heroics — it's possible that changes. It's tough to create offense without a back end that's able to support it. With Heiskanen back, things fall into place. Having him and Harley running things is a big deal. Having two top-10 defensemen is a major competitive advantage. They'll need more out of Esa Lindell in a shutdown role, though. Yes, he's playing tough minutes. Yes, he's doing it with Cody Ceci as his partner. And yes, the Stars have limited goals-against despite that. But they're also playing with some serious fire considering the chances the shutdown pair has allowed. Against McDavid and Draisaitl, the Stars need Lindell to be a lot closer to his regular-season self. Advertisement This is also where the Oilers have a decent edge, especially with the impending return of Mattias Ekholm. While the Oilers may not appear deep up front on paper (though they're certainly playing that way), they are deep on the back end. Evan Bouchard was arguably their best player against Vegas and continues to be a playoff dawg. But more important is how the rest of the group has played in Ekholm's absence. Jake Walman and John Klingberg have formed an unbelievably strong pair, with the latter looking like his vintage self. That duo has earned 66 percent of actual and expected goals during the postseason and even took on the toughest matchup in Game 5 against Jack Eichel. That's a major development, one that has allowed the Oilers to heavily control the pace of play. Brett Kulak has been a defensive rock, too. If Darnell Nurse can get back to his regular-season form, look out. The great equalizer for the Stars is Oettinger, who has obvious series-stealing potential. With 10.4 goals saved above expected and a .919 save percentage, he's been one of the best goalies during the playoffs. His game comes alive in the postseason, and there's no doubt he's ready to avenge last year's duel against Stuart Skinner. All due credit to Skinner for how his game turned around against Vegas in relief, and he's a great goalie when he's on. But Oettinger is the obviously safer bet between the pipes. Given how the Oilers have looked since Game 3 of the first round, he'll need to be at his very best. Mattias Ekholm vs. Miro Heiskanen The Oilers and Stars went into the postseason with a similar problem: finding a way to survive without one of their top defensemen. Ekholm, like Heiskanen, isn't the flashiest defenseman but makes an impact on both ends of the ice. Filling that void hasn't been easy — Nurse has been leaned on more in his absence, along with deadline-add Walman. The Oilers will be without the injured Ekholm for at least another two games, though. Advertisement That's what gives the Stars an edge in this matchup. Heiskanen, their No. 1, is already back in action and up to speed. Not only does Dallas benefit from his high-caliber play — and in Game 6 against Winnipeg, he dominated with a 46-13 edge in shot attempts in his five-on-five minutes and a 92 percent expected goal rate — his return means the coaches don't have to deploy lesser defenders, such as Ceci and Ilya Lyubushkin, in meaningful minutes as often. The path to victory seems clear for both teams. Dallas needs Oettinger to limit the damage done by McDavid and Draisaitl and for Rantanen to keep the train rolling. Edmonton needs its all-world duo to step up and for its depth players to fill in the gaps. Drop the puck. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL playoff predictions 2025: Conference final winners, Stanley Cup champion and MVP
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff The NHL's final four is set. The Florida Panthers continue their quest to win a second straight Stanley Cup on Tuesday night as they open the Eastern Conference final against the Carolina Hurricanes, and Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers kick off the Western Conference final on Wednesday night against the Dallas Stars for a second straight spring. Advertisement The Stars opened the second round as The Athletic NHL staff's favorite to win the Cup. Are they still our top pick? And who do we see taking the East after our pre-playoff pick — the Tampa Bay Lightning — got eliminated? What about Conn Smythe favorites? Here are the results of our staff survey after the second round, with analysis and critique from senior writers Sean Gentille and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger. Figures are rounded. Gentille: The Panthers are the defending champs, so I get why there's a gap … but they were also just pushed to the brink by the Toronto Maple Leafs. How good could they really be? (This is half a joke.) Goldman: Just like Leafs-Panthers, this is going to be a closer series than it was in 2023. The Canes are a better team, but so are the Panthers … who just so happen to be the reigning champs. It makes sense that they have the edge in voting, but at least we all think this one is going deep. Lazerus: As good as the Canes have been for the last several years, they haven't won a single conference final game in this era, having been swept by the Bruins in 2019 and by the Panthers in 2023. None of us expects that to happen again. But Carolina, relentless and impressive as it is, still can't measure up to the Panthers in terms of high-end finishers and goaltending. Granger: For once, I think Carolina actually does measure up well in the goaltending department. Frederik Andersen has been the best goalie in the postseason, and he's been exceptional on shots from right in front of the net (Florida's specialty). Given his history and the Panthers' tendency to be … physical … with the opposing netminder, it's a big 'if,' but if Andersen stays healthy, I like Carolina a lot in this one. Gentille: I like Dallas in this one, but a 54.8 percent edge seems high. Edmonton made pretty light work of the Golden Knights. It might be a case of 'out of sight, out of mind' for our voters. Goldman: I think it's been pretty easy to talk yourself out of the Oilers each round — it was the best version of the Kings, the Golden Knights are filled with shutdown talent, and the Stars are one of the deepest teams now that they're actually healthy. But Edmonton has come to play this postseason, and there are only four games separating them from a return to the Final. Advertisement Lazerus: While I went with Dallas, too, I'm a little shocked by this disparity. The Oilers have two very impressive series victories so far in this postseason and have reminded everyone why they were the trendiest Stanley Cup pick back in October. But there's just no world in which I can bet on Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard against Jake Oettinger. This is the spring in which Oettinger finally gets recognized as one of the game's truly great goaltenders. Granger: What a heavyweight bout this is to crown the best in the West. Not only is it a rematch of last year's conference final, but at least one of these two teams has played in this series in five of the last six seasons. Gentille: More proof that I jumped off the Stars bandwagon at the absolute wrong time. Also, Western Conference bias is clearly in effect. Goldman: It actually surprises me that voting for the Panthers is down after Round 2 — sure, it took them seven games, but look at how they dominated Game 7. Lazerus: I guess it comes down to whether you think it's a positive thing that Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin and several others have not been producing at all in the playoffs (they're due!) or if you think it's a negative thing (Mikko Rantanen can't do it all himself against a team that scores at will like Edmonton!). Y'all believe. (I can say 'y'all' now, because I basically live in Texas now.) Granger: The Stars certainly feel like the most well-rounded team. They have the star power up front (with Rantanen delivering in a big way). The blue line is dangerous with Miro Heiskanen back in the fold and Thomas Harley currently second in the playoffs for points by a defenseman. Oettinger is rock solid in net. It's really hard to find a reason this team loses outside of 'Pete DeBoer has come close so many times and never won a Cup.' Maybe this is Pete's year. Gentille: The most impactful player and leading scorer is the overall favorite. No need to get cute here. Andersen is a decent dark horse, though. Zero Hurricanes skaters getting a vote is kind of wild, too. Goldman: I get the Andersen hype; he has earned it, but I think Andrei Svechnikov and Jaccob Slavin should be in the mix for the Canes. And if the Panthers claw their way to the top again, Brad Marchand probably is high up on that list. Advertisement Lazerus: Don't sleep on Oettinger here. Rantanen has one point in his last three games and one goal in his last five. That run he had was spectacular, but Oettinger was the key to the Winnipeg series, and he's been far and away the most consistent Stars player. Granger: I'm loving all of this goalie discussion for Conn Smythe, considering how this postseason has gone for the vast majority of netminders. With the league average save percentage sitting at a cool .898 in these playoffs, Oettinger and Andersen have more than earned the hype with their steady play. Here's how our first- and second-round predictions held up, with the actual result of the series, the percent of voters who picked the right team and the percent who picked the right team and number of games: (Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Jeff Bottari, Ashley Potts, Jared C. Tilton, Peter Joneleit / Getty Images)
New York Times
06-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL playoff preview: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars
By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille It's always fun to see Stanley Cup playoff series exceed their expectations. That, somehow, is what we got from both Central Division matchups. That's saying quite a bit; when the Dallas Stars-Colorado Avalanche series began, it felt like one of the most heavily anticipated first-round series in recent memory. Elite teams. Human drama. Couldn't ask for much more, and both teams came through. The Winnipeg Jets, meanwhile, avoided disaster spectacularly behind an in-series redemption arc starring the best regular-season goalie on the planet. Tough acts to follow. We believe in them, though. The odds If odds set expectations, expect more drama in the Central. This series — between the Presidents' Trophy winners and a team many pegged as the one to beat after a massive deadline add — is about as tight as it gets. As has been common in these playoffs, where not much separates the top teams on paper, this looks close to a pick 'em. That should mean a tightly contested battle between the Jets and Stars that could go the distance. There are a lot of caveats to that analysis, more than arguably any other series in recent memory. Will Connor Hellebuyck bounce back? Has Mikko Rantanen's game returned for good after a post-trade lull? How many games will the Stars and Jets get from their currently injured star players? All questions without concrete answers (though we'll give our best guess). Those considerations make this a difficult series to peg, where a toss-up slightly shaded to the Stars feels safest. All we know is this series should be a battle. The numbers On paper, this is the closest Round 2 matchup, with just a plus-2 Net Rating separating these teams. The Jets established themselves as a defensive powerhouse this season, giving Hellebuyck more support than he has had in years. At five-on-five, Winnipeg was stingy, only giving up 2.34 xGA/60. With Hellebuyck between the pipes, the team allowed a league-low 1.72 GA/60. But a lot of that defensive zone stability slipped in Round 1. Technically, the Jets allowed a lower rate of expected goals against at 2.17 per 60, but there were more glaring slip-ups, especially on the road. Winnipeg allowed some dangerous looks off the rush and left their goaltender exposed to a lot of screened shots, which he responded to really poorly. The Stars' offense may create trouble for the Jets' back end in Round 2. Dallas' five-on-five offense was top-seven in the league in both expected and actual goal creation over the regular season. That slipped in Round 1 against the Avs, but could rebound as this group gets healthier. Defense is a potential weak point for Dallas until Heiskanen returns. That became glaring after the 4 Nations Face-Off and remained a problem in Round 1, with the team giving up 3.24 xGA/60 in seven games. The Stars' penalty kill wasn't perfect in terms of shot quality, but goaltending made up for it. The opposite was true for the Jets in Round 1; the team gave up very little but didn't always get timely saves. That's something to watch in this series, considering how high-octane the Stars' power play was against Colorado. The big question Can Connor Hellebuyck bounce back? Playoff reputations are not etched in stone. They can follow a player for years and get stickier with each new disappointment. Redemption, though, is always a possibility. Narratives can change. There is no denying that Hellebuyck, over the last three playoffs, has not been good enough. That's his narrative: He is not a big-game player, he can't handle the heat. His work against the St. Louis Blues was particularly unfathomable; it was Hellebuyck's worst series yet, with some truly unconscionable goals allowed. But the Jets are still alive. They survived one of the worst goaltending playoff performances we've ever seen, and that's a testament to the team in front of Hellebuyck. It's what's supposed to make Winnipeg different this year. It gives Hellebuyck the opportunity to change his narrative. Every new series is a chance for redemption, and no player needs it more than he does. One year removed from allowing 6.5 goals above expected in five playoff games against the Avs (or 9.1 per seven games), Hellebuyck allowed 9.8 goals above expected against the Blues — the most he has ever given up in any given seven-game sequence ever. His previous low, minus-7.6, came back in 2017. Over his last two Vezina seasons, Hellebuyck had 111 distinct seven-game sequences during the regular season. In those, Hellebuyck was below average just five times and his lowest mark is just minus-2.1 goals allowed. That's who Hellebuyck should be. Who he's been during the season and who he's been in the postseason could not be more different. What Hellebuyck offers to us is an extreme lesson in goalie volatility — and its ability to snowball to truly unbelievable places when the temperature rises. His playoff work goes well beyond general small-sample goalie wackiness. It is so extreme that it cannot be chalked up to 'stuff happens.' Stuff like this defies any ounce of logic. It should not happen. But to Hellebuyck, it has. League-best regular seasons followed up by league-worst playoffs, to these extreme degrees, is not normal. And that makes for a very tricky conundrum regarding expectations for the Jets in this series. Winnipeg's 50-50 shot against Dallas depends heavily on a Hellebuyck redemption, which does not feel like a safe bet. While the model did downgrade Winnipeg's Defensive Rating (from plus-46 to plus-39), it's clear there is a wide range of possibilities for the Jets depending on which version of Hellebuyck shows up. Hellebuyck's projected Net Rating of plus-28 is the base case, one built on regressing his last five regular seasons (with more weight on the last two), where the expectation is he saves 0.37 goals above expected per game. If he can reliably be counted on to repeat this season's 0.64 per game, Winnipeg's odds shoot up to 64 percent. If, however, Playoff Hellebuyck has another unfortunate performance and allows one goal above expected per game (his average over the last three playoffs), Winnipeg's odds would drop all the way down to 9 percent. Yes, 9 percent. More than any other team, Winnipeg's success hinges greatly on the impact of one player — a player whose current impact could not be more unpredictable and whose downside looks tremendous. That the Jets got by the Blues was miraculous. The Stars — a loaded offensive team — are a different beast. Stopping the high-flying Stars in their tracks is a great place for Hellebuyck's redemption arc to start. It's also where things can spiral further downward. It's on Hellebuyck to decide where his narrative goes next. The X-factor How will injuries shift the balance of this series? The key to winning a Central Division matchup in the opening round? Play Game 7 without one of your best forwards and No. 1 defenseman, naturally. Credit to both the Jets and Stars for pulling that off — it's no small feat. Especially given the circumstances both teams found themselves in, down by two in the third period. But pulling that off for a long stretch of time against better competition is a tall task. In this series, at least to start, the Stars and Jets are in the same boat. The point at which either team will reach shore with a healthy roster is what makes projecting it so tricky. Without firm timelines on Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, we're left guessing on that return. What we can tell you is the worst-case scenario for each team. At full health, the Jets would be favored in this series at 52 percent due to their having home ice advantage. If Dallas starts fully healthy, Winnipeg's chances would drop to 47 percent without Scheifele, 42 percent without Morrissey and 38 percent without both. That's for the whole series, which feels unlikely. The more games Scheifele and Morrissey play, the better the outlook. On the flip side, the Stars (starting at 48 percent) are at 43 percent without Robertson, 42 percent without Heiskanen and 37 percent without both. None of that is to say neither team can manage without its stars, just that the road to the conference final becomes that much more challenging. We're expecting the Stars duo back sooner, which is what gets the series to 50-50, but even that forecast is clear as mud. Whatever happens, this series is so close that whoever returns first (and closest to 100 percent) could end up being the difference. The rosters The Stars had two primary problems heading into the playoffs. The right side of the defense was a liability without Heiskanen, and Rantanen, who they brought in to be The Guy at the top of the lineup, had yet to hit his stride, which was extra concerning with Robertson injured. Rantanen came into this year with a Net Rating of at least plus-19 in each of the last three seasons. He was around a plus-17 at the time of the first trade, with an average Game Score of 1.27, but ended the year at about a plus-10. A few things contributed to that drop-off: a lack of scoring with the Canes despite promising underlying numbers, poor play-driving in Dallas and less ice time since leaving the Avs. With the Canes, his average Game Score plummeted to 0.66; in Dallas, it was 0.70. But after an up-and-down season with a lot of change and adjustments, Rantanen came to play when it mattered most and eliminated his former team in the process. After scoring a Game 7 hat trick, he ended Round 1 with five goals and 12 points and an average Game Score of 1.37, and paced at a plus-24 Net Rating. Rantanen is finally adjusting to his surroundings in Dallas and finding chemistry on an all-Finn line with Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund. That could be a sign he is on track to return to his pre-trade caliber. If this is the Rantanen Dallas can expect going forward — the Rantanen they paid a lot for — we're probably underestimating their chances here. Rantanen, at a plus-17 Net Rating, swings the series odds four percentage points in the Stars' favor. The Stars' forward depth gives them their biggest edge in the playoff field, which helped them weather Robertson's absence. Tyler Seguin's return reunited a productive second line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, which outscored Colorado 2-1 in Round 1. After a slow start to the playoffs, Wyatt Johnston found the scoring touch that made him stand out last spring. If he can keep that up, he should help turn around a third line with Jamie Benn, who had mixed results against the Avs. Considering some of the Jets' injury woes, the matchups may not be as daunting, either — the Stars' third line got a heavy dose of Nathan MacKinnon's line in Round 1 and had to fight through those minutes with Esa Lindell and Cody Ceci on the back end. Not only does it hurt the Stars to be without Heiskanen's two-way skill, but it also forces other defensemen out of their depth. Ceci has been tasked with playing matchup minutes, and in Round 1, the team gave up an xGA/60 of 4.0 with him and Lindell on the ice at five-on-five. Oettinger stopped the bleeding and kept their actual goal rate down to 1.75 per 60, but that may not be sustainable. Heiskanen's return will help reset the Stars' defense and give Thomas Harley more top-four support, whether they are reunited or split across two pairs. But the team has to get by until then. The Jets got reinforcements back in Round 1 with the return of Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, but Scheifele's status is uncertain. Scheifele and Connor were dynamic together to open the series. Connor, tied with Rantanen as the league leader with 12 points, comes into this series with a plus-11 Net Rating to lead the Jets forwards. But can he keep that up against the Stars without a true 1C? Connor started Game 7 with Vladislav Namestnikov, but ended up spending most of the night with Adam Lowry, whose plus-3 Defensive Rating leads all forwards in this series. Lowry doesn't thread the needle offensively, but could help Connor win his minutes against the Stars' best. Year after year, Ehlers stands out as one of the Jets' top forwards in the regular season but wilts in a playoff environment. He proved that wasn't the case in Game 7, with a gutsy lateral pass to Connor that set up Cole Perfetti's game-tying goal. It was shaky on the way there, but at the biggest moment, Ehlers delivered. After being scratched through most of last year's postseason, Perfetti is showing he can thrive in a playoff environment. He is a shooting threat and is driving to the quality areas, which helped set up both of his Game 7 goals. With Ehlers and Namestnikov, the Jets' second line earned a 54 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-14 in the regular season — that's the kind of production, at minimum, this team needs to counter the Stars' middle six. As long as Lowry stays with Connor, the third line won't be as defensively sound. But if Sunday's in-game tweaks hold, Vilardi could make it more of a scoring threat. On the back end, the Jets must also prepare to play without Morrissey, whose status is uncertain. In Game 7, Dylan DeMelo spent a lot of time with shutdown defenseman Dylan Samberg, and the two were lights-out in 10:37 five-on-five minutes. The Jets attempted 15 shots, limited the Blues to two against and earned 94 percent of expected goals. But that likely leaves the team's defense too top-heavy against a deep opponent. Samberg and Neal Pionk, who take on top competition, become the de facto top pair without Morrissey. But the bottom-four configuration is tricky, considering how much the third pair already burned the Jets in Round 1. Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn were crushed in their third pair minutes against the Blues; St. Louis earned a 60 percent expected goal rate in their minutes and outscored the Jets 4-1. Haydn Fleury can help there and looked composed in Game 7, but he's no savior — the third pair is still a point of weakness that can be exploited. Against a Stars team with a loaded top nine, it gets even dicier and creates even more problems for a shaky Hellebuyck between the pipes. The key matchup Connor Hellebuyck vs. Jake Oettinger At some point last week, when Hellebuyck and the Jets were at their low point, it felt like we were getting an early referendum on Team USA's starting goaltender at the 2026 Olympics. How could you go with Hellebuyck in a high-stakes environment over Oettinger, who was in the process of adding to his (already impressive) case for No. 1? Now, thanks to his final four periods or so in Game 7, Hellebuyck has re-entered the conversation. Oettinger's reputation doesn't need that level of rebuilding, though. In his last four postseasons, he 1) had one of the best series by a goaltender in recent history, against Calgary in 2022; 2) led Dallas to consecutive conference finals in 2023 and 2024, though he was certainly better the second time around; and 3) got them out of a series in which they missed their No. 1 defenseman and All-Star winger. Oetttinger didn't allow a third-period goal against the Avs until Game 6, then shut Colorado down for the final 19:29 of Game 7, a stretch in which Dallas took the score from 2-0 to 4-2. That's big-game, resume-building stuff, and Oettinger now has the opportunity for even more of the same. The bottom line Between key injuries and Hellebuyck's playoff demons, the deck is stacked against the Jets right now. Winnipeg's star power is lacking, while the Stars are just heating up. But these teams are more than what they did in Round 1. The Central Division has been a battle all season long, and this series will likely be no different. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Jake Oettinger and Connor Hellebuyck: Matthew Stockman and Cameron Bartlett / Getty Images)
