Latest news with #SellAmerica
Axios
03-08-2025
- Business
- Axios
U.S. jobs data "very unreliable," top Trump econ adviser says
The labor statistics chief that President Trump fired Friday is a "terrific person," but the jobs data her agency produced has become "very unreliable," National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday. Why it matters: One of the top advisers to the leader of the world's largest economy is effectively saying one of the most crucial datapoints on that economy isn't particularly trustworthy, and hasn't been for years. Catch up quick: On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported weak job growth in July, with historic downward revisions to the May and June numbers that suggested the labor market was all but flat in recent months. Hours later, Trump claimed — without any evidence — that the report was rigged, and he fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer. What they're saying: "I don't think it was explained very well and I think that markets might be as much unsettled by the fact that the data are so noisy," Hassett told "Fox News Sunday." "So imagine if the revision in the data — so the correction of errors — is five times bigger than the number itself. Then that makes you wonder 'well can I believe this number at all?' And I think that that's actually something that needs to be fixed, it needs to be fixed fast," Hassent said. "I think that the president is right to call for new leadership. I think Erika is a terrific person, but I think that it's time for someone to get in there and fix this," Hassett said, arguing that the data never recovered from problems that began during the pandemic. "If the data aren't that good, then it's a real problem for the U.S. And right now the data are — have become very unreliable with these massive revisions over the last few years." Zoom in: Hassett, in a subsequent interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," said Trump wanted his own people running BLS to achieve "more transparent and more reliable" data. "If there are big changes and big revisions — we expect more big revisions for the jobs data in September, for example — then we want to know why," he said. But pressed repeatedly for hard evidence that the data were rigged or manipulated for political reasons, Hassett would say only that the revisions proved the data were wrong. The big picture: There is little precedent for the government's senior economic leaders openly questioning the fundamental quality of the nation's core macroeconomic data. It comes as international investors have just started regaining confidence in the U.S., following the emergence of a tariff-driven " Sell America" trade earlier this year. The intrigue: Condemnation of Trump's move was swift, not just from Democrats, but from Republican lawmakers and economists. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), ordinarily a strong Trump supporter, told The Guardian that firing McEntarfer was "kind of impetuous" and added "it's not the statistician's fault if the numbers are accurate and that they're not what the president had hoped for." GOP Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) also reportedly spoke out against the move. William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner by Trump in his first term, said on CNN's "State of the Union" that "there's no way for" McEntarfer to rig the data, as Trump claimed last week. He added that the commissioner doesn't even see the final, fully calculated number until two days before its release and their job at that time is "to kind of do the edits on the text. So there's no hands-on at all for the commissioner." Beach also said that revisions to data are commonplace, since the initial jobs data is conducted like a survey and not all of the businesses turn their numbers in before the deadline. "BLS keeps the door open for two more months to get more information. So what you saw on Friday was the effect of trying to do a better job, getting more information," Beach said of the revisions for May and June in Friday's report. The bottom line: Beach said Trump firing McEntarfer "undermines credibility in BLS." "Suppose that they get a new commissioner, and this person, male, female, are just the best people possible, right? And they do a bad number. Well everybody's going to think 'well it's not as bad as it probably really is,' because they're going to suspect political influence," Beach said. What to watch: The next jobs report is in 33 days.
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The dollar posted its worst first-half performance since Nixon was president
The US Dollar Index fell 10.8% in the first half of 2025 — its worst performance since 1973. The decline is driven in part by the "Sell America" trade amid economic and political concerns. A weaker dollar boosts US exports but raises import costs and affects summer travel expenses. The dollar keeps getting deeper into the bear market as the summer travel season is in full swing. On Monday, the US Dollar Index ended the first half of the year 10.8% lower. That's its worst first-half performance since 1973, when Richard Nixon was president. At the time, the index fell 14.8%. On Tuesday, the US Dollar Index was 0.1% lower at 96.75 at 12:57 a.m. ET . The index measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies. The sharp decline is a surprising turn for a currency typically seen as a safe haven in uncertain times. Analysts have attributed King Dollar's slump to the "Sell America" trade, as investors dumped US assets, including stocks and Treasurys, in response to President Donald Trump's trade war. Slower economic growth, political uncertainty, and rising fiscal concerns have contributed to the dollar's slide. Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro research for Asia, excluding Japan, wrote on Tuesday that the greenback is under pressure from President Donald Trump's "big beautiful bill." The bill, which is pending a vote in the Senate, is stoking concerns about an additional $3.3 trillion to the US's deficits over a decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. "An unsustainable debt path is a key motivator of the 'Sell America' narrative that has compromised USD and USD assets," wrote Varathan. Meanwhile, pull factors in other parts of the world are enticing investors, according to Sami Pepin, a fixed-income strategist at Lombard Odier, a Swiss private bank. They include defense and government spending plans in the euro zone and better stock performances elsewhere. "Combined with broad-based concerns about global investors' high exposure to US assets, the result is strong negative USD sentiment, with limited respite," he wrote. Despite the dollar's weakness, US stock markets have recently hit record highs. Treasurys have also made some recovery since their selloff in recent months. The conflict is not irreconcilable, as investors appear to be hedging, not selling, the US market, according to Varathan. "A naked 'Sell America' position can be a costly endeavour," he wrote. "Hedging for US risks via a bearish USD while being invested in US equities and USTs may be the compelling play for a while yet," he added. A weaker currency isn't all negative for the US. It's good for exports, which translates into profits and sales for US companies overseas. However, it means imports could get more expensive — and even stoke inflation. More immediately, summer vacations abroad could get more expensive for travelers. The dollar's decline means that it has been losing ground against major currencies, including the euro and the British pound. On Monday, the dollar hit a four-year low against the euro. Asian currencies have also made broad gains against the dollar, with the Japanese yen 9.3% higher this year. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Axios
30-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trump trade whiplash sends investors abroad
While bulls are cheering the stock market record, it's flimsy compared with gains in the rest of the world. Why it matters: President Trump's flip-flop on trade with Canada last Friday is the type of policy volatility foundational to the Sell America trade, which is still driving gains in markets outside of the U.S Strategists see more room to run in the shift to international stocks. By the numbers: Take a look at the performance of some foreign indices year to date. The German DAX is up 20%. The Chinese Hang Seng Index is up 24%. Even Canadian stocks are mildly outpacing U.S. gains, up nearly 7% this year compared to the 5% gain in the S&P 500. What they're saying: A rotation out of the U.S. into the rest of the world, particularly to Europe and individual countries offering stimulative economic policies, is the consensus for the second half of this year. "The U.S. itself no longer the safe haven that it was in the past 20 years," says Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisors. It's not just that the U.S. is fading. The "aggressive fiscal stimulus" adopted by the rest of the world is set to drive further earnings growth elsewhere, he says. Yes, but: Thanks to big tech, most banks have maintained an overweight rating on both U.S. and European stocks through year end. About half of the gains in the S&P are driven by large-cap tech names. You don't have to believe in the entire U.S. to own the S&P. You may just have to believe in the tech trade. That trade is expected to be buoyed by continued earnings growth, cushioned by declines in the U.S. dollar.
Bloomberg
27-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Taiwanese Investors Flee US Bond ETFs as Currency Risks Mount
Taiwanese investors are unloading their holdings in US-focused exchange-traded bond funds at the quickest pace since the onset of the Covid pandemic, highlighting a 'Sell America' momentum that may further boost the island's currency. Such products listed in Taiwan — Asia's most active bond ETF market — have seen about $3.3 billion of outflows so far this year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. It's the largest half-year withdrawal since 2020 and outpaced other Asian markets, the data show.
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Investors still don't believe in Europe's defense buildup — but they should, Goldman Sachs says
Investors have been drawn to European markets due to the 'Sell America' trade and EU spending. But market skepticism remains about Europe's short-term defense spending and its growth impact. Goldman Sachs predicts EU defense spending will rise, driven by geopolitical challenges. Investors have flocked to European markets in recent months, fueled by the "Sell America" trade and bets that a ramp-up in EU government spending would drive growth. The enthusiasm sent leading European stock indexes surging — but investors are still not entirely convinced, wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a Tuesday note. "Market participants remain skeptical about Europe's ability to increase defence spending in the short term, questioning both the availability of funding and its effectiveness to boost growth," the analysts wrote. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is up 6.6% so far this year, while Germany's DAX index is up nearly 19% and trading near record highs. Goldman is even more optimistic. The Wall Street giant expects euro-zone and UK defense spending to rise to 2.7% and 2.5% of GDP, respectively, by 2027 due to geopolitical challenges and the US administration's demands for higher NATO contributions. In 2024, the EU spent 326 billion euros, or about 1.9% of its GDP, on defense. The UK spent 53.9 billion pounds, or 2.3% of its GDP, on defense that year. The Goldman analysts added that the region already has a strong industrial base to build on, since 25% of global arms production comes from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK. The analysts wrote that they expect most EU countries to ramp up defense spending alongside Germany from 2026, with Italy, Spain, and possibly France tapping the EU's 150 billion euro Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, credit line. But investors need more to gain more confidence in Europe's industrial turnaround, wrote the analysts. Specifically, they will need to see real, concrete spending from Germany and the rollout of SAFE. "Defence spending, because of its capital intensity and focus on R&D, is likely to be an essential element in shifting the narrative," they wrote. Goldman Sachs' assessment of Europe's defense spending plans comes amid the two-day NATO summit in the Netherlands that started on Tuesday. The allies are expected to announce a commitment to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and another 1.5% of GDP on related infrastructural and cybersecurity. Defense spending as a share of GDP has fallen since the 1980s to its lowest level in the last decade, when it went below 2%. In 2022 — following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine — military spending started to rise. In comparison, the US spends over 3% of its GDP on defense. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
