Latest news with #SentryRiskTable
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Chances of asteroid impact change: what it means
(INTERNATIONAL) — We've been following reports of an asteroid that scientists said was going to make impact with Earth in 2032. But the news has now changed for the better. In January, asteroid 2024 YR4 was reported to have a one in 88 chance of impacting the Earth. Then, on Feb. 17, the chance of impact almost doubled to a one in 32 chance. This was notable because not only did the chances almost double, but according to NASA, the asteroid became the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies Sentry Risk Table. However, NASA now says they took more data and measurements recently, and as of Saturday, Feb. 22, the chance of impact has been lowered to one in 360, or a 0.28% chance. This brings 2024 YR4 down from a three on the Torino Hazard Impact Scale, where it would merit attention, to a one, meaning no threat at this time. In addition, the report indicated that this chance could actually go down to zero by the end of February as more orbital data comes in. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA lowers impact risk of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67 (phew!)
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. If you've been worrying about reports of a possible asteroid impact in 2032, we have very good news! NASA has dropped the probability of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67. NASA announced the reduced impact risk on its X feed at around 5:00 p.m. EST (2200 GMT) on Wednesday (Feb. 19). The updated assessment was based on new orbital data for the asteroid, which is estimated to be around 180 feet (55 meters) wide, collected overnight between the Feb. 18 and Feb. 19. The radical drop in impact risk for 2024 YR4 came just a day after its risk factor was increased to 1 in 32 or 3.1%. This increase saw 2024 YR4 become the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table was introduced. Despite the extreme drop in impact risk, 2024 YR4 still sits at the top of the Sentry table. The next riskiest asteroid on the table is 1950 DA, which has a 0.039% chance of impacting Earth in 2880. Regarding the drop in 2024 YR4's impact risk on Dec. 22, 2032, NASA wrote: "New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%. "Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted." As NASA dropped the impact risk of 2024 YT4, the European Space Agency (ESA) also reduced the asteroid's risk of impacting Earth in 2032 to 1.38% or around 1 in 73. Of course, this is an opportunity for readers to tell their friends, "I told you so," about a drop in the impact risk of 2024 YR4!We've been talking to asteroid hunter David Rankin, who first "precovered" (short for pre-discovery recovery) asteroid 2024 YR4 in data from the Catalina Sky Survey (meaning he was able to find images of the space rock in archival data that was gathered prior to its official discovery) since it hit the top of the Sentry Risk Table. He's been predicting that it's only a matter of time until the odds of an impact dropped significantly. Rankin has been reassuring readers of all along that the risk of 2024 YR4 would climb rapidly and then begin to decrease as astronomers collect more data about the asteroid. The asteroid hunter from the Catalina Sky Survey previously explained how uncertainty in the path of 2024 YR4 arises with an analogy. "Imagine holding a stick that is a few feet long. If you move the stick in your hand a fraction of an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end," the researcher said. "Now imagine that stick is many millions of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an inch will cause dramatic changes on the other end." "In this case, that 'fraction of an inch' is tiny uncertainties in the positional measurements of the asteroid from the telescopes' images that can arise from small timing errors and small positional errors," Rankin continued. "It's not possible to get a 'perfect' measurement of the asteroid from any telescope." Even if 2024 YR4 misses Earth in 2032, there remains a small chance, about 1 in 125 or 0.8%, that the asteroid could strike the moon. Of course, by far, the most likely outcome is this asteroid missing Earth and its lunar companion and continuing on its path around the sun. Related Stories: — Earth's mini-moon has finally departed. Will it ever return as a 'second moon?' — Asteroid the size of 3 million elephants zooms past Earth — Astronauts could mine asteroids for food someday, scientists say We might have to wait a while until we have more solid info on 2024 YR4's passage through the inner solar system. The asteroid is currently heading away from Earth, but it is set to swing back toward our planet in 2028, once again becoming visible to ground-based telescopes. Even if 2024 YR4 doesn't impact Earth, its scientific impact, as it offers a chance to see an asteroid up close and personal, is immense.
Yahoo
29-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA spots asteroid as wide as 747 with 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth
Scientists have spotted an asteroid as wide as a Boeing 747's wingspan that has a one-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth. 2024 YR4 is heading towards the Earth and will arrive in December 2032. The asteroid is 60meters wide and is currently 27million miles away. It will arrive on December 22 and will make a 'very close approach' - passing somewhere within 66,000 miles of the planet, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). Factoring in orbital uncertainties, there is a 1 in 83 chance of a collision - creating an airburst or a crater. 2024 YR4 has now been placed at the top of the European Space Agency's Near Earth Object Impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table. READ MORE: Thieves targeted charity and stole cars which were driven away 'in relay' READ MORE: Cardiff councillor charged with crime he denies is suspended from political group Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever." Asteroid 2024 YR4 was found by NASA's ATLAS project using the Rio Hurtado telescope in Chile. Rankin told "People should absolutely not worry about this yet. Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us." Scientists are waiting for 2028, when they will get a closer look at the asteroid as it swings past Earth at about 5 million miles. They will then be able to take better measurements of its size, orbit and speed as well as composition. The asteroid is about the same size as the Tunguska meteor. In 1908, a meteor exploded over the Russian Tunguska River with a detonation that may have been as large as 50 megatons. It flattened an area of 80 million trees across 830 square miles. The Tunguska event is the largest impact event on Earth in recorded history. Rankin said: "If [asteroid 2024 YT4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground. If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater."
Yahoo
29-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in December of 2032. The asteroid is estimated to be 196 feet (60 meters) wide, and it is currently 27 million miles away. The near-Earth object (NEO) discovered in 2024, which is around half as wide as a football field is long, will make a very close approach to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. It's estimated to come within around 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on that day, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). However, when orbital uncertainties are considered, that close approach could turn out to be a direct hit on our planet. Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst," or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground. This is enough to see asteroid 2024 YR4 leap to the top of the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table. "Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83," Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."Amateur astronomer Tony Dunn shared a simulation of the asteroid approach on his X feed. The asteroid is rated three on the Torino risk scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants close attention from astronomers and an over 1% chance of impact. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially found by a NASA-funded project called ATLAS, using the project's telescope located in Rio Hurtado, Chile. Rankin was then able to recover the asteroid from data collected by the Catalina Sky Survey. reached out to Rankin to learn more about asteroid 2024 YR4. His initial message was clear: "People should absolutely not worry about this yet," Rankin told "Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us." Rankin added that, currently, the "risk corridor" for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to South Africa. "It is just important to keep in mind that its orbit is still too uncertain to know if it will hit, and right now, the most likely outcome is a miss," he said. "This impact corridor estimation will eventually go stale with new observations and better orbit calculations." And, he says, even if 2024 YR4 does hit Earth, this isn't an immediate cause for great concern. There is still a great deal astronomers don't know about this asteroid, and many of these characteristics have a significant influence on the damage it could cause. "Size and composition are big players in possible damage, along with impact location," Rankin said. "It's hard to constrain size and composition with the current orbital situation, as it's outbound. Typically, the best way to constrain size is with radar observations and those are not possible right now."He says that astronomers will have a shot at estimating these characteristics in 2028 when 2024 YR4 will make a less risky close approach to Earth, passing within around 5 million miles (8 million kilometers) of our planet. Astronomers can calculate the size of a distant asteroid based on the amount of light it reflects, or its "absolute magnitude." The problem is, however, that asteroids have varying surface compositions. They can be dark or shiny, and that impacts light-related size estimates."Based on the calculated absolute magnitude, it's about 196 feet (60 meters) wide, but that assumes a certain surface reflectivity," Rankin said. "If the asteroid has a darker surface, that number is too small; if it has a more reflective surface, that number is too high."That is why they need that radar data to be more sure of the size of asteroid 2024 YR4. Let's say the data we have on asteroid 2024 YT4 is currently correct. What kind of risk does an impact by this asteroid pose to Earth? "It is likely around the same size as the 1908 Tunguska rock or the Meteor Crater rock," Rankin said. "So, while impact effects would be more localized than regional, it certainly has the potential to do serious damage to the area it hits." Tunguska is currently the largest recorded asteroid strike event in human history, though we know of many greater impacts in prehistoric times. The most notable of these is the catastrophic Chicxulub impact, which happened around 66 million years ago and wiped out two-thirds of life on Earth and ended the reign of the dinosaurs. Tunguska was less dramatic, but was no slouch in terms of damage. Releasing the same energy as the detonation of up to 50 million tons of TNT when it exploded in the atmosphere over a sparsely populated region of Russia, the blast flattened an estimated 80 million trees over an area of 830 square miles ( 2,150 square km) and possibly killed three people. "If [asteroid 2024 YT4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground," Rankin said. "If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical." Related Stories: — Earth's mini-moon has finally departed. Will it ever return as a 'second moon?' — Asteroid the size of 3 million elephants zooms past Earth — Astronauts could mine asteroids for food someday, scientists say Rankin and astronomers across the globe will now endeavor to learn as much as they can about asteroid 2024 YT4 before 2032. "We will have the opportunity to continue to track this rock through February with 8-meter class telescopes, which we plan on doing at Catalina Sky Survey," Rankin said. "It is possible that even after February, we will not know for sure if it will hit or miss in 2032. We should be able to determine that better by 2028, when it should be visible again."
