Latest news with #ShuliRen
The Star
3 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Hong Kong has all but abandoned the dollar peg
Borrowing costs in Hong Kong have collapsed despite the dollar peg. — Bloomberg INTEREST rates in Hong Kong have been eerily low, raising the question of whether the city's dollar peg is now in name only. Hong Kong surrendered its monetary autonomy decades ago, thanks to a unique mechanism that restricts its currency fluctuation to a narrow band of 7.75 and 7.85 per dollar. That means the city's borrowing costs move in lockstep with those in the United States, which are dictated by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate policies. Currency traders have been staring at an anomaly. The one-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate or Hibor, has collapsed since early May. The gap with the US secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is at an unprecedented level of more than three percentage points. Investors are now asking what caused this divergence and whether Hibor will stay lower for longer. Borrowing costs in Hong Kong have collapsed despite the dollar peg. The first part of the story is well understood. Last month, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) purchased the greenback amid a global dollar rout to prevent its currency from strengthening beyond 7.75. HKMA's balance sheet ballooned while a flood of new local money pushed down Hibor. But such glaring bifurcation from SOFR should only be temporary. When local funding costs are significantly lower, traders can borrow Hong Kong dollars and sell them against the higher-yielding US counterpart. This, in turn, will lift the city's currency and rates over time. The fact that this rate gap has not narrowed shows there's little appetite to earn dollar carry trades. Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further. In addition, there's talk of an Asian Financial Crisis in reverse, marked by a violent rally in local currencies such as the one Taiwan witnessed in early May. What if HKMA all of a sudden decides to move the currency peg to a stronger range? Gains from the carry trade would be instantly wiped out. Investors are right not to lose sight of the big picture. After all, Taiwan dollar's 8% melt-up last month proved painful for under-hedged insurers and exporters. On an economic level, this trend can be a huge boon for a financial hub that is trying to regain its footing. In recent years, businesses have complained about the dollar peg, saying that Fed rate hikes unnecessarily tightened the city's financial conditions and hamstrung its economic recovery. Hong Kong's anaemic residential real estate, for one, could see a rebound if the current trend continues. The prevailing new mortgage rate would be only 2.1%, versus 3.5% in early May. For a 30-year loan with a 70% loan-to-value ratio, monthly payments could be cut by about 15%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The value of underwater mortgages would fall as well. — Bloomberg Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets. The views expressed here are the writer's own.
Bloomberg
20-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: APAC Markets Follow S&P Rally; CATL Debut Highlights Hong Kong Revival
Asian shares rose for the first time in four days, mirroring gains in the US that placed the S&P 500 index on the brink of a bull market. A regional stock gauge gained 0.5% after the S&P 500 index climbed for a sixth straight day. Shares in Hong Kong advanced 0.3%, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. jumping 13% in its local debut. Treasuries were steady after whipsawing on Monday with the downgrading of US debt by Moody's Ratings. US equity-index futures edged down while gold dipped 0.1% as haven demand ebbed. We break down the market reaction with Rob Williams, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist at Sage Advisory Services. Plus - could Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub may be entering a new phase? With major listings like CATL and Hengrui Pharmaceuticals drawing significant foreign inflows, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren joins to discuss how the city is offering Chinese firms a path to global capital while sidestepping geopolitical flashpoints.
Bloomberg
22-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Big Take Asia: The Chinese Toy Defying Tariffs
Chinese toy company Pop Mart is one of the hottest stocks this year thanks to the wild popularity of its Labubu dolls and other blind box toys. On today's Big Take Asia podcast, host K. Oanh Ha talks to Bloomberg Opinion's Shuli Ren about how the company's business model could help it ride out the trade-war storm.
Bloomberg
11-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Can America Fight a Tech War and a Trade War at Once?
This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a multi-strategic hodgepodge of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Now that we know all this Trump trade turmoil is really about China, Shuli Ren would like to say that the US will be missing out not just on cheap consumer goods from Shein and Temu but the inexpensive yet chic fashion, bags, cars and electronics that have been evolving in the Mainland since the recessionary Covid years. Says Shuli: '[L]ocal brands have had to improve their products to hold onto their customers. But alas, thanks to Trump, Americans don't get to take advantage.'
Bloomberg
26-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Chinese Tech Volatility
On today's episode, we dissect the forces driving volatility in Chinese tech stocks. Despite the recent pullback in Chinese equities, some Wall Street investors remain bullish. Morgan Stanley strategists raised their 2025 year-end index targets for Chinese stocks indexes, after seeing signs of fourth-quarter earnings beats. Similarly, strategists at Goldman Sachs expect more fundamental upside to the recent rally as more positive earnings revisions should be coming. We speak with Shuli Ren of Bloomberg Opinion for a closer look. Plus - Asian stocks posted modest gains on Wednesday as investors searched for a clear direction amid weaker US consumer confidence, tariff uncertainty and a late rally in US equities. We get some insights on the US economy from Bill Campbell, Global Bond Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine.
