Latest news with #SimonGaudreault
Yahoo
24-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
CFIB foresees recession in Canada, with economic contractions in Q2 and Q3
TORONTO — The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is forecasting a recession in Canada this year. A new report from CFIB shows it's forecasting that growth declined 0.8 per cent in the second quarter and will contract by a further 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. The group says an analysis of the impact of tariffs on supply chains highlights that most firms are anticipating long-term disruptions. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the uncertain trade situation is impacting business confidence, resulting in paused or cancelled investments. Private investment is expected to fall 13 per cent in the second quarter and continue to decline by 6.9 per cent in the third quarter. Despite the anticipated downturn, CFIB highlights that inflation remains stable, putting the Bank of Canada in a better position to consider easing borrowing costs in the second half of the year. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 24, 2025. The Canadian Press Sign in to access your portfolio
Toronto Sun
24-07-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
CFIB foresees recession in Canada, with economic contractions in Q2 and Q3
Published Jul 24, 2025 • Last updated 7 minutes ago • 1 minute read A worker welds steel in Burnaby, B.C., on Thursday March 29, 2018. Photo by DARRYL DYCK / THE CANADIAN PRESS The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is forecasting a recession in Canada this year. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account A new report from CFIB shows it's forecasting that growth declined 0.8 per cent in the second quarter and will contract by a further 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. The group says an analysis of the impact of tariffs on supply chains highlights that most firms are anticipating long-term disruptions. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the uncertain trade situation is impacting business confidence, resulting in paused or cancelled investments. Private investment is expected to fall 13 per cent in the second quarter and continue to decline by 6.9 per cent in the third quarter. Despite the anticipated downturn, CFIB highlights that inflation remains stable, putting the Bank of Canada in a better position to consider easing borrowing costs in the second half of the year. Read More Sports Ontario Canada World Golf
CTV News
24-07-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Canada's economy to see negative growth amid Trump tariffs: CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business expects to see negative growth in Canada's economy. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) expects to see negative growth in Canada's economy as businesses face low confidence driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war and its impact on supply chains. The advocacy group, representing Canadian owners of small and mid-size businesses, released a report Thursday, based on responses from 719 CFIB members. 'While we forecast a contraction in the economy, at the same time certain indicators point out that it is normalizing in some ways,' said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, in a news release. 'Inflation remains stable which puts us in a favourable position to contemplate easier monetary policy for the second half of the year. However, with Canada seeing a 1.9 per cent inflation and unexpectedly adding jobs in June, the Bank of Canada may now decide to maintain its interest rate on July 30.' Statistics Canada's consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation, slowed to 1.8 per cent in the second quarter and is expected to rise slightly to 1.9 per cent in the third quarter. The CFIB states the overall deceleration in prices was mainly driven by falling energy costs and lower prices for travel services, while increases in food and shelter costs provided some upward pressure. The CFIB said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.8 per cent in the second quarter and is expected to decline further by another 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. It said the contraction reflects persistently low business confidence, driven by trade tensions, and weakness in manufacturing, particularly in the transportation, machinery, and oil and gas sectors. Canada–U.S. trade tensions causing high uncertainty The group highlighted a Statistics Canada report that notes 48 per cent of businesses experienced supply chain disruptions over the past three months, and 64 per cent expect conditions to worsen. The CFIB anticipates private investment will nosedive by 13.0 per cent in the second quarter and further drop by 6.9 per cent in third quarter. The national private sector job vacancy rate held steady at 2.8 per cent in the second quarter representing 397,00 unfilled positions. 'The one step forward, on step back trade situation is driving low business confidence, translating into paused or cancelled investment,' said Gaudreault. 'As trade tensions drag on, more businesses will be slowly adjusting to tariff threats and finding alternatives.' The highest vacancy rates were in personal services and construction. On a yearly basis, information, arts and recreation (-0.8), agriculture (-0.8), personal services (-0.6), and natural resources (-0.6) saw the biggest drop in their vacancy rates. Manufacturing was the only sector reporting an increase (+0.1). Retail sales slowed in the second quarter, growing by 4.6 per cent. The CFIB said many businesses and organizations wanted to place orders ahead of the tariffs' implementation. They said growth is expected to moderate to increase by 2.0 per cent in third quarter. T The organization said wholesale and manufacturing businesses reported the highest impact from Canada-U.S. border delays, at 42 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. A proportion of 39 per cent of firms in personal services also reported disruptions, largely due to delays affecting repair shops for vehicles, household and commercial goods. Significant shares of businesses operating in retail (36 per cent) and construction (35 per cent) reported border delays, showing that supply chain bottlenecks affect both distribution networks and project-based work. In contrast, service-oriented sectors reported fewer disruptions as they rely less on cross-border logistics. Facing growing tariff-related pressures at the border, the CFIB said 62 per cent of small and medium enterprises have shifted to domestic markets. Nonetheless, supply chain disruptions remain widespread, revealing that the problem is not limited to international trade, but affecting internal logistics as well.
Cision Canada
24-07-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Canadian economy to contract in the second and third quarters of 2025 Français
TORONTO, July 24, 2025 /CNW/ - The Canadian economy is expected to see negative growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, finds the latest Main Street Quarterly report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). Key highlights of the Q2 2025 edition of the Main Street Quarterly report CFIB's estimates and forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest Canadian economy fell 0.8% in Q2 and will further contract by 0.8% in Q3. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 1.8% in the second quarter and is forecasted to rise slightly to 1.9% in Q3. After contracting in Q1, private investment is estimated to nosedive by 13.0% in Q2 and further drop by 6.9% in Q3. The national private sector job vacancy rate held steady at 2.8% in Q2 2025. This represents 397,500 unfilled positions. A special analysis on the impact of tariffs on supply chains highlights that most businesses expect long-term supply disruptions, both abroad and domestically. More firms have been affected by supply chain challenges since March 2025, with wholesale and manufacturing sectors most impacted by Canada-U.S. border delays. The quarterly sectoral profile reveals that the lack of optimism in the wholesale industry reflects the significant decrease in the number of wholesale businesses with employees and also the steep decline in self-employed over the past decade. They are facing major challenges and are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to supply chain disruptions, rising input costs, and trade uncertainty. Conclusions by CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, Simon Gaudreault: While we forecast a contraction in the economy, at the same time certain indicators point out that it is normalizing in some ways. Inflation remains stable which puts us in a favourable position to contemplate easier monetary policy for the second half of the year. However, with Canada seeing a 1.9% inflation and unexpectedly adding jobs in June, the Bank of Canada may now decide to maintain its interest rate on July 30. The "one step forward, one step back" trade situation is driving low business confidence, translating into paused or cancelled investments. As trade tensions drag on, more businesses will be slowly adjusting to tariff threats and findings alternatives. About AppEco AppEco is a consulting firm specializing in economic and strategic analysis. It possesses in-depth technical expertise and delivers first-class services in applied economics: economic impact studies, surveys and polls, cost-benefit analyses, modelling, econometrics, pricing, etc. Its mission is to provide useful services that contribute to economic growth and the success of clients' projects. AppEco works with firms of all sizes, from small to multinationals, as well as governments and non-profit organizations. Learn more at About CFIB The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada's largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners' chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at
Globe and Mail
24-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
CFIB economic forecast predicts significant contraction in second quarter
A forecast by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business estimates the economy saw muted growth in the first three months of the year and predicts a significant contraction for the second quarter. The report estimates the Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year. However, it forecasts the economy will contract at an annualized rate of 5.6 per cent in the second quarter. The report, based on the CFIB's most recent monthly business barometer data, says the drop comes from a historically low long-term business sentiment in the context of the trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has hit Canada with a broad range of tariffs, while Ottawa has responded with its own set of tariffs on goods coming from the U.S. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the raging trade war will likely drive up the costs of doing business and lead to inflation.
