Latest news with #SimonGaudreault
Globe and Mail
24-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
CFIB economic forecast predicts significant contraction in second quarter
A forecast by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business estimates the economy saw muted growth in the first three months of the year and predicts a significant contraction for the second quarter. The report estimates the Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year. However, it forecasts the economy will contract at an annualized rate of 5.6 per cent in the second quarter. The report, based on the CFIB's most recent monthly business barometer data, says the drop comes from a historically low long-term business sentiment in the context of the trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has hit Canada with a broad range of tariffs, while Ottawa has responded with its own set of tariffs on goods coming from the U.S. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the raging trade war will likely drive up the costs of doing business and lead to inflation.
Hamilton Spectator
24-04-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
CFIB economic forecast predicts significant contraction in second quarter
OTTAWA - A forecast by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business estimates the economy saw muted growth in the first three months of the year and predicts a significant contraction for the second quarter. The report estimates the Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year. However, it forecasts the economy will contract at an annualized rate of 5.6 per cent in the second quarter. The report, based on the CFIB's most recent monthly business barometer data, says the drop comes from a historically low long-term business sentiment in the context of the trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has hit Canada with a broad range of tariffs, while Ottawa has responded with its own set of tariffs on goods coming from the U.S. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the raging trade war will likely drive up the costs of doing business and lead to inflation. This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 24, 2025.
Winnipeg Free Press
24-04-2025
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
CFIB economic forecast predicts significant contraction in second quarter
OTTAWA – A forecast by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business estimates the economy saw muted growth in the first three months of the year and predicts a significant contraction for the second quarter. The report estimates the Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year. However, it forecasts the economy will contract at an annualized rate of 5.6 per cent in the second quarter. The report, based on the CFIB's most recent monthly business barometer data, says the drop comes from a historically low long-term business sentiment in the context of the trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has hit Canada with a broad range of tariffs, while Ottawa has responded with its own set of tariffs on goods coming from the U.S. During Elections Get campaign news, insight, analysis and commentary delivered to your inbox during Canada's 2025 election. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the raging trade war will likely drive up the costs of doing business and lead to inflation. This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 24, 2025.
Cision Canada
24-04-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Canadian economy to contract in Q2 2025 as tariffs weigh on small businesses Français
TORONTO, April 24, 2025 /CNW/ - The Canadian economy is estimated to see muted growth in Q1 2025 and expected to see significant contraction in the second quarter of the year, finds the latest Main Street Quarterly report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). Key highlights of the Q1 2025 edition of the Main Street Quarterly report CFIB's estimates and forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest the Canadian economy grew by 0.8% in Q1 but is expected to significantly contract in Q2. The total Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.4% in Q1 2025 and is expected to further increase to 2.7% in Q2 on a yearly basis. After seeing good recovery at the end of 2024, private investment is estimated to see a major drop of 13.9% in Q1, with the Q2 forecasted even lower at -19.1%. Private sector job vacancy rate held steady at 2.8 in Q1 2025. This represents 393,400 unfilled positions. A special analysis highlights that SMEs are under growing pressure from weak demand and rising input costs. Exporters are the least able to pass on tariff-related costs, while importers have more flexibility to adjust prices. The quarterly sectoral section highlights how different industries are coping with these pressures. Manufacturing and wholesale firms are the hardest hit by low demand due to their trade exposure. Agriculture, hospitality, and arts, recreation and information businesses are less able to pass on costs and more likely to absorb them fully. One-third of wholesale firms have already increased their prices. Moreover, two-thirds of firms in hospitality and construction plan to increase their prices once supplier costs stabilize. Conclusions by CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, Simon Gaudreault: Small businesses are feeling the pinch. The raging trade war will likely drive up the costs of doing business and lead to inflation. While the Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate, it will take bold policy changes for small businesses to feel meaningful relief. That would include reducing taxes and adopting full mutual recognition of each other's rules, permits and regulatory regimes. Given how the long-term business confidence is at historically low levels, it's not surprising that small businesses are pausing their capital expenditures. It's nearly impossible for owners to plan expansions or investments when they're not sure if their business will even be open in six months. Governments at all levels urgently need to balance the economic environment, so SMEs have the capacity to withstand the impacts of the trade war. About AppEco AppEco is a consulting firm specializing in economic and strategic analysis. It possesses in-depth technical expertise and delivers first-class services in applied economics: economic impact studies, surveys and polls, cost-benefit analyses, modelling, econometrics, pricing, etc. Its mission is to provide useful services that contribute to economic growth and the success of clients' projects. AppEco works with firms of all sizes, from small to multinationals, as well as governments and non-profit organizations. Learn more at About CFIB The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada's largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners' chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at
Yahoo
20-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's small business confidence plunges to record low
Confidence among small businesses plummeted to an all-time low in March, with sentiment lower now than anytime during the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis or in the aftermath of 9/11, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). The CFIB's Business Barometer long-term index fell 24.8 points to 25 as confidence across all sectors fell. 'Small business owners are feeling pessimistic about their business's perspectives for the next few months or even beyond,' Simon Gaudreault, CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, said in a release. To recoup losses from Canada's trade war with the United States, small businesses are planning to raise prices by an average of 3.7 per cent, cut wage increases and consider layoffs. 'It's hard to make critical decisions for the long, medium or short term when so much can change within a matter of hours,' Gaudreault said. 'No one knows when the tariff war will end, and businesses are worried the worst is yet to come.' Product demand has also reached a new low, with 59 per cent of small businesses impacted by weak demand, which is more than the pandemic high of 53 per cent. The agriculture sector arguably faces the biggest challenge. On top of U.S. tariffs, the sector is dealing with 100 per cent Chinese tariffs on canola oil, pork and seafood, which came into effect Thursday. 'Chinese tariffs are coming at the worst possible time given the ongoing uncertainty in our trading relationship with the United States,' Gaudreault said. Corinne Pohlmann, executive vice-president of advocacy at CFIB, said small businesses 'need all the help they can get' to weather this storm. 'Now is the time to show strong support to small businesses,' she said. The CFIB is calling for the federal government to make carbon tax rebates for small businesses tax free, increase the lifetime capital gains exemption and create support systems for those hurt by tariffs. Two weeks ago, the federal government announced $6 billion in aid for businesses hurt by tariffs and $1 billion in financing for the agricultural sector. In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford pledged to defer $10 billion in business taxes for six months and offer $3 billion in payroll tax relief. Other provinces are offering relief as well. For example, Manitoba is also deferring provincial sales taxes and payroll taxes for three months, while New Brunswick is allocating $4 million to support its seafood industry, $5 million for small businesses and $40 million to help the long-term sustainability of its large exporters. At the front lines of the trade war: what's exempt, what isn't Business groups say trade uncertainty has done damage Small business investment set to shrink in blow to productivity Quebec is offering funds to help businesses diversify away from the U.S. and provide loans up to $50 million for local export companies in the manufacturing and primary sectors, and Prince Edward Island has begun a financial relief program for affected businesses, offering up to $500,000 over six years. • Email: bcousins@
