Latest news with #Slok
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Layoffs Coming for Trucking, Retail Ahead of Projected Recession, Report Says
Alternative asset management firm Apollo Global Management projects a summer recession onslaught by trade war-inflicted stagflation, according to a report published by Torsten Slok, the firm's chief economist. That spells trouble for U.S. retailers and logistics providers. Slok's report projects that in late May or early June, layoffs in the trucking and retail industries are likely to begin, just ahead of a summer recession. More from Sourcing Journal The projections come from a slew of data points about consumer sentiment, logistics activity following U.S. President Donald Trump's back-and-forth position on tariffs, causing widespread concern over the state of the global economy. The logistics side of the house Data from Apollo's report shows that, ahead of tariffs taking effect, inventories rose rapidly. That's likely because brands and retailers alike sought to frontload basic items at the lowest-possible entry rate, particularly as uncertainty loomed about the rate of tariffs in key production countries like Vietnam and Cambodia. Simultaneously, though, sales of heavy trucks declined 'significantly' in March, per Apollo's analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The Logistics Managers' Index, which measures industry trends and developments, also declined to 57.1 in March, down 5.6 points from February. Zac Rogers, analyst for the Logistics Managers' Index and an associate professor of supply chain management, said at the time that the slowdown can be attributed to the shifting of three core metrics dropping between February and March: inventory costs, warehousing prices and transportation prices. 'This suggests that supply chains revved up in February and early March to bring goods in, but have slowed in more recent weeks as more trade controls have been implemented,' Rogers wrote in the March monthly report. 'It will be critical to continue monitoring this situation over the next few months. Dynamics in the transportation market are often a leading indicator for movements in the overall economy. If we see a sustained pullback in freight, it may signal coming issues in the overall economy.' According to Slok's data, April has seen declining demand for cargo ships coming from China to the U.S.; he projects that in early-to-mid May, once container ships inbound to U.S. ports from China 'come to a stop,' trucking demand will also halt.
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Americans Really Dislike Trump. But They're About to Truly Hate Him.
Donald Trump's first 100 days in office may have been the longest, figuratively speaking, of any U.S. president in history. But we can also say definitively that they were the most disastrous, ever. His draconian deportations, destruction of the federal government, and insane tariff Tilt-a-Whirls have driven his approval numbers so low as to be a modern marvel; the last time a president was this disliked after 100 days, we were fighting a world war and the Slinky was the country's most popular toy. Trump has ended up here for no other reason than that he pursued the very policies he promised to pursue on the campaign trail. That's the story of his first 100 days: Americans elected a dumb asshole, and natural consequences followed. Now let's consider the next 100 days, which look to be even worse for all of us—including the president. As The New Republic's Alex Shephard wrote this week, there are a lot of good reasons to believe Trump's standing with the American people hasn't hit bottom yet, the main one being that the worst is yet to come. The president, Shephard writes, 'is still stubbornly clinging to tariffs, which inevitably will cause product shortages and rising costs in the near future—not to mention a potential recession, the odds of which are worryingly high.' Last weekend, Apollo Global economist Torsten Slok published a preview of coming attractions in the form of a report documenting what he's calling the imminent 'Voluntary Trade Reset Recession.' As Slok documents, Trump's economy—though quite sluggish—has been boosted by the fact that inventories rose rapidly as firms acted in anticipation of tariffs being imposed. Now that tariffs have arrived, the sugar high is over and collapse is on the way. The most straightforward way of looking at the future is on page 4 of Slok's report. What we have here is the prelude to the summer of scarcity, coming soon to a retailer near you. We are already well and fully in the stage where activity at our ports falls off a cliff. As TNR's Tim Noah wrote this week: This is how it begins. The recession has arrived in Seattle, with cargo shipments down 60 percent. Los Angeles will be next. As recently as November, the Los Angeles Times reported that cargo traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach reached record highs. But last week it quoted the port's executive director, Gene Seroka, predicting that 'in two weeks' time, arrivals will drop by 35 percent.' The reason, Seroka said, was that 'essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased, and cargo coming out of Southeast Asia locations is much softer than normal.' From here, Tim says, there will be less cargo to ship across the country, and inevitably, fewer people employed to do that work. Already, UPS has laid off 20,000 workers because of 'current macro-economic uncertainty' that I really think wasn't all that uncertain when Trump was reelected. This only highlights another grim reality: Even if Trump called off his tariffs tomorrow, much of the coming mayhem is baked into our future, as it would take a substantial amount of time to restart the global shipping machine. 'Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy,' says Slok. The latter half of that prediction may well be the more devastating part. As Marketwatch's Steve Goldstein highlighted, Slok said that 'small businesses that account for more than 80 percent of employment and capital expenditure don't have the working capital to pay tariffs.' In other words, Trumpnomics will soon be best known for that which is absent: products on the shelves of retailers, and businesses on the streets where you live, now shuttered. Here is where the Wall Street versus Main Street divide is going to be keenly illuminated as Trump's tariffs start the economic bloodletting. The White House has rather persistently explained away the turmoil its tariffs have wrought as a harm done only to high-flying financiers, and claimed that the benefits to ordinary people would soon emerge. A day after he got hit with a hundred dreadful evaluations of his first 100 days, Trump was spinning out on Truth Social, promising that the boom was on the wing. But even as the stock markets have pitched and yawed as investors cling to their naïve beliefs that Trump has a plan (he doesn't), those plying their trade on Main Street are planning for a different sort of boom. To hear Casey Ames—the founder of Harkla, a small, 10-person firm in Idaho that sells products for special needs children—tell it, Trump's tariffs have already forced him to make some grim considerations. Ames told the Idaho Statesman that his company was set to have a banner year. 'We had just hired more people, and we were forecasting a really good year, even with the initial Trump tariffs,' he said. Now, however, he's facing a massive hike in the amount of import taxes he'll have to pay, from $26,000 to $346,000. With no domestic manufacturer capable of supplying the same goods, and knowing that even modest price hikes could crater sales, Ames is suddenly facing a situation where he may have to lay off employees. Ames has garnered a lot of attention for sharing his experiences on social media, taking his audience behind the curtain to reveal what small-business owners have to expect as the summer of scarcity begins. Over at The New York Times, where they've been doing a long-running bit where Frank Luntz interviews the 14 dumbest voters in America, this fissure recently emerged: Meagan, the focus group's lone small-business owner, told Luntz that the tariffs were a 'very, very scary thing' and that she was, as a result, in 'crisis mode.' If reality has started to penetrate Luntz's Delulu Conclave, we're all in for a world of hurt. And that's probably the most dreadful reckoning, as we mark the 100th day of Trump's second term. Trump's collapse in public opinion polling—along with the fact that he's not likely to reverse many of his worst decisions or repair the things he's broken—has probably set his presidency on the road to ruin. But if Trump has truly sown the seeds of his own undoing, it will be ordinary Americans who reap the proceeds of that dire harvest first, in the form of lost livelihoods and scuppered wealth. It's going to be a rough summer—and many seasons thereafter, until one day we finally hit the nadir of Trumpian article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here. If you're a small-business owner with a story to tell about how tariffs are impacting your bottom line, contact my colleague Grace Segers.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
As US Credit Card Debt Soars, Record Number Of Americans Rely On Minimum Payments Amid Recession Fears And Trump Tariffs
A record-high percentage of U.S. households are making only minimum payments on their credit cards, according to new data released by Apollo Global Management Inc. Chief Economist Torsten Slok. What Happened: In a report titled 'How are U.S. consumers and firms responding to tariffs?' Slok highlighted Federal Reserve data showing the share of accounts making only minimum payments has climbed above 11% as of the first quarter of 2025, the highest level recorded since tracking began in 2012. Trending: 'Scrolling To UBI' — Deloitte's #1 fastest-growing software company allows users to earn money on their phones. The trend shows a clear upward trajectory over the past decade, with a brief dip during the early pandemic period in the second quarter of 2020, followed by an accelerated rise to current record levels. This growing reliance on minimum payments comes as Americans' collective credit card debt reached an unprecedented $1.21 trillion by the end of 2024, up 7.3% from the previous year, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis It Matters: Financial experts warn that making only minimum payments is a troubling sign of increasing consumer stress. A recent Experian survey found 40% of Americans mistakenly believe minimum payments are an effective debt management strategy. The credit strain coincides with recent warnings from major corporations about consumer spending pullbacks. Southwest Airlines Co. CEO Robert Jordan stated, 'I don't care if you call it a recession or not, in this industry that's a recession,' while PepsiCo Inc. CFO Jamie Caulfield admitted, 'Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren't feeling as good about the consumer now.' Meanwhile, Apollo's Slok has separately warned of a 90% chance of recession in 2025 if current tariff policies under President Donald Trump remain unchanged, potentially worsening consumer financial challenges in the coming months. Read Next: It's no wonder Jeff Bezos holds over $250 million in art — this alternative asset has outpaced the S&P 500 since 1995, delivering an average annual return of 11.4%. Here's how everyday investors are getting started. Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Many are rushing to grab 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.26/share! Image Via Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? This article As US Credit Card Debt Soars, Record Number Of Americans Rely On Minimum Payments Amid Recession Fears And Trump Tariffs originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Morocco World
29-04-2025
- Business
- Morocco World
US Expects Empty Shelves as Tariff Wars Slow Imports
The United States is expected to begin feeling the effects of President Donald Trump's tariff wars as early as May, with major ports bracing for a sharp decline in imports over the coming weeks. Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, announced last week that the San Pedro Bay Complex in California is projected to see a 44% year-over-year drop in vessel calls. Cordero warned that this downturn in cargo volume—largely driven by the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods—will likely persist into the third quarter of 2025 as the ports are heavily dependent on imports from China. A recent report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation further highlighted the economic threat posed by the tariffs, estimating that they endanger $500 billion in revenue and put 2 million local jobs at risk. The World Trade Organization also weighed in, cautioning that escalating trade tensions between the US and China could slash bilateral trade by as much as 80%. This has sparked alarm among business owners nationwide. US media outlets are now warning that the broader impact of these tariffs will soon be felt by everyday Americans, with economists predicting a recession by summer. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, explained that, given the time required for goods to ship from China, consumers could begin experiencing shortages by May. He likened the anticipated supply disruptions to those seen during the 2020 pandemic. Slok, along with the Port of Long Beach, noted that a wave of canceled or postponed sailings has already pushed shipping activity to levels not seen since COVID-19. 'The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and COVID-like shortages for consumers and firms relying on Chinese goods as intermediate products,' warned Slok. Read also: According to his projections, container ship arrivals at US ports could halt by early to mid-May. This would be followed by a sharp drop in trucking demand, leading to empty store shelves and declining corporate revenues. Layoffs in the trucking and retail sectors could begin by late May or early June, culminating in a recession by summer 2025. Donald Trump has long argued that his tariff policy would boost domestic manufacturing. He believes that making foreign goods more expensive will encourage companies to shift production back to the US, creating jobs and reducing dependence on overseas supply chains. Many observers and economists fear that American consumers will still face higher prices even if tariffs succeed in reshoring production. 'If production moves to the US, prices will be higher,' said Larry Harris, a professor of economics. 'The reason those goods aren't made in the US in the first place is because we can't produce them as cheaply as other countries can.' While American households are set to soon feel the consequences of the tariff wars at the checkout lines, Trump continues to downplay the risks and emphasize that any felt setbacks are just part of a transitional period. 'You just don't know it yet, but this is a tremendous success what's happening,' said Trump in a recent interview with Time Magazine. 'I don't believe it'll be inflation. I think it'll be a loss for our country,' he insisted.
Time of India
29-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Retail nightmare incoming? Donald Trump's trade policies may lead to empty shelves and full-blown recession by June
Experts warn that US President Trump's escalating trade war with China is set to significantly impact American businesses and consumers. Apollo Global Management predicts potential disruptions by mid-May, including halted freight transport and empty shelves. The National Retail Federation anticipates a substantial decline in US import cargo volumes, signaling a challenging economic period ahead. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Timeline Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Shipping Echoes the Pandemic Retailers Bracing for Impact FAQs A wave of economic uncertainty is sweeping over the United States as experts caution that US president Donald Trump's deepening trade war with China is poised to land a tough blow on American businesses and consumers this summer, as per a could start feeling the weight of the tariffs by mid-May, with empty shelves in stores, suspended freight transport, and a recession looming as early as June, according to a report published by management firm Apollo Global Management Apollo's head economist Torsten Slok explained the chronology; after Trump announced his "liberation day" tariffs on April 2, it takes about 20 days to 40 days for container ships to sail to the United States from China, so, Slok estimates that container ships coming to US ports could come to a stop by mid-May, as per Investor's Business Daily (IBD).Slok pointed out that, it then takes about 1 day to 10 days of transit time for trucking/rail to bring goods from the ports to cities, as per the report. Apollo Global Management forecasted that by late May, domestic freight demand will "come to a halt" and that there will be "empty shelves" with companies responding "to lower sales," reported to the report, Slok predicted that there will be layoffs in domestic freight by early June, and retail industries will be hit with recession in the US, this companies such as Flexport reported a decline in shipments from China to North America, with cancellation rates reaching 50%, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, as per revealed that the short-term outlook for shipment-volume growth from Southeast Asia to North America "remains muted," as per Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop said, "Ports are unloading above-average container arrivals in the past couple of weeks that were stocking up ahead of the tariffs," as quoted in the report. Kleintop mentioned that, "But for booking in the weeks and months ahead, we are seeing falling demand and high cancellation rates rivaling those of the pandemic," quoted National Retail Federation (NRF), whose members include large retailers such as Walmart and Target, has cautioned that US import cargo volumes would decline by at least 20% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, as per the report. This is mainly because US businesses are halting orders from China due to the trade tensions between both nations, according to have caused a major slowdown in shipping, with companies like Flexport reporting 50% cancellation rates for shipments from China, as per Investor's Business By late May, the domestic freight demand is predicted to halt, which means fewer goods will reach US cities, potentially leading to empty shelves in stores.
