US Expects Empty Shelves as Tariff Wars Slow Imports
The United States is expected to begin feeling the effects of President Donald Trump's tariff wars as early as May, with major ports bracing for a sharp decline in imports over the coming weeks.
Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, announced last week that the San Pedro Bay Complex in California is projected to see a 44% year-over-year drop in vessel calls.
Cordero warned that this downturn in cargo volume—largely driven by the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods—will likely persist into the third quarter of 2025 as the ports are heavily dependent on imports from China.
A recent report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation further highlighted the economic threat posed by the tariffs, estimating that they endanger $500 billion in revenue and put 2 million local jobs at risk.
The World Trade Organization also weighed in, cautioning that escalating trade tensions between the US and China could slash bilateral trade by as much as 80%. This has sparked alarm among business owners nationwide.
US media outlets are now warning that the broader impact of these tariffs will soon be felt by everyday Americans, with economists predicting a recession by summer. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, explained that, given the time required for goods to ship from China, consumers could begin experiencing shortages by May. He likened the anticipated supply disruptions to those seen during the 2020 pandemic.
Slok, along with the Port of Long Beach, noted that a wave of canceled or postponed sailings has already pushed shipping activity to levels not seen since COVID-19. 'The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and COVID-like shortages for consumers and firms relying on Chinese goods as intermediate products,' warned Slok.
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According to his projections, container ship arrivals at US ports could halt by early to mid-May. This would be followed by a sharp drop in trucking demand, leading to empty store shelves and declining corporate revenues. Layoffs in the trucking and retail sectors could begin by late May or early June, culminating in a recession by summer 2025.
Donald Trump has long argued that his tariff policy would boost domestic manufacturing. He believes that making foreign goods more expensive will encourage companies to shift production back to the US, creating jobs and reducing dependence on overseas supply chains.
Many observers and economists fear that American consumers will still face higher prices even if tariffs succeed in reshoring production.
'If production moves to the US, prices will be higher,' said Larry Harris, a professor of economics. 'The reason those goods aren't made in the US in the first place is because we can't produce them as cheaply as other countries can.'
While American households are set to soon feel the consequences of the tariff wars at the checkout lines, Trump continues to downplay the risks and emphasize that any felt setbacks are just part of a transitional period.
'You just don't know it yet, but this is a tremendous success what's happening,' said Trump in a recent interview with Time Magazine. 'I don't believe it'll be inflation. I think it'll be a loss for our country,' he insisted.
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One: Setting the rules of the game and initiating a new timetable for the conduct of future negotiations. This is a technique aimed at turning the page on candid previous relationships to shake up the status quo and express the need to find different alternatives. Two: Prioritizing issues in asymmetrical relationships where the minor actor is summoned to reconsider his priorities and adapt them to those of the major actor. Otherwise, he is urged to look elsewhere while bearing the consequences of his choice. Three: Clarifying positions by bringing in the media, the involved parties, and the public as witnesses. The exercise is an eloquent demonstration of manipulation in broad daylight. It is indirectly accompanied by the demystification of the alleged charismatic image of certain leaders in the eyes of their own people. Four: Challenging media outlets known for their sensational scoops. They are caught off guard and, through unyielding reporters, seek to avoid being sidelined. The scene of the reporter asking President Trump a tricky question about the story of the Boeing 747-8i (an impressive version of the jumbo-jet) offered by Qatar, to defuse the chaotic situation in which the South African President finds himself, tells more about biased (and dichotomous) relationships between media and politicians. Sword of Damocles Hoovering President Trump doesn't back down and calls the reporter incompetent for trying to divert the audience's and the public's attention from the ordeal he is subjecting his South African guest to. He confirms that he has no problem accepting such an offer. For the record, two Boeing 747-200Bs have been in service for the American presidency since 1990. President Trump intends to replace them. Five: Delineating the scope of visits by foreign heads of state and government to the White House. Unless they prepare well and come with a clear agenda negotiated in advance and in the finest details, they are advised to stay at home. 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Similarly, the error on the geographical and political map is a strong signal regarding the host country's position in relation to a regional conflict in which the country of the head of state visiting is involved. Seven: Justifying a political and diplomatic decision that does not seem to have been well understood. This stance is aimed at the so-called traditional allied countries that are reluctant to admit that their privileged status is being challenged. A new breeze is in the air, favoring realism and pragmatism, and they have to get it or leave the stage. Most of the criteria mentioned above can be witnessed, to some extent, in the style of Mohammed VI, King of Morocco. One: The use of the media to convey messages is done through appropriate media. King Mohammed VI very seldom speaks directly to the media. He seems to prefer not to engage in the question-and-answer game, which can lead to misunderstandings and unnecessary subtleties. Two: Clarity in ideas and mastery in responding to urgent questions. The King uses a top-notch instrument, rational, clear, and straightforward: speeches. They are concise and get straight to the point. In terms of foreign policy, the speeches are clear, and the targeted actors are identified. Three: The deep care given to timing and context. The King makes it a cornerstone of the message he intends to deliver. This is a coherent approach in line with the outlined priorities. Four: The delineation of the scope of future negotiations with partners and other countries interested in serious relationships with Morocco. National interest comes first. No concessions regarding sovereignty in its political, diplomatic, economic, and security dimensions are accepted or imposed. Five: The accuracy and relevance of the political and strategic vision. In this respect, two speeches and messages are worth mentioning. Diplomacy: Transparency Means Business First, the speech delivered on April 20, 2016, on the occasion of the Morocco-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit. King Mohammed VI draws attention to the dangers facing the Arab world, particularly the attempts to change regimes and fragment Arab states. He warns against the new alliances aimed at creating conditions of disorder that threaten stability in the region and the viability of sovereign states. A year later, a coalition of five countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Yemen, and Egypt) rises against Qatar. Once again, King Mohammed VI stands out with his mastery and vision, breaking the economic blockade imposed on this country by sending emergency food and medical aid in June 2017, as a sign of solidarity with the Qatari people. Morocco nonetheless maintains friendly relations with the members of the coalition, despite a brief cooling period that was quickly overtaken. Morocco hardly pays attention to the statements from certain circles in Doha who claim, ignoring the symbolism of the King's gesture, that their country receives no aid from anyone and that it would have paid for what it has received accordingly. Secondly, the speech in which King Mohammed VI draws the red lines beyond which Morocco cannot accept to promote its relations with both partners and adversaries. The royal speech of August 20, 2022, on the prism through which Morocco views its international environment, is a striking illustration of the King's diplomatic perception. This prism is assessed based on the position of friendly countries and other countries regarding the issue of the Moroccan Sahara. Six: The promotion of the peaceful approach to resolving bilateral inter-state conflicts. King Mohammed VI emphasizes at least five dialogue techniques along with the rejection of belligerent means that Morocco's adversaries are fond of. One: The outstretched hand aimed at identifying the actors who have a grudge against Morocco. These are sovereign state actors, members of the United Nations Organization, eager for double talk and fervent adepts of bureaucratic jargon. Two: The invitation addressed to the international community to appreciate Morocco's goodwill in contrast to the bad faith of its adversaries, state actors in the Euro-Mediterranean and Arab-African spaces. Three: The distinction and complementarity between domestic and foreign policy choices. The link between the two (Linkage politics) is fluid. It is expressed in accordance with the current political and diplomatic swings without deviating from the fundamental principles governing the two arenas. Four: Pragmatism and adaptation. Both are part of the framework designed to neutralize opponents and maintain a line of contact through international bodies. Two striking examples. On one hand, the proposal of the Autonomy Plan in 2007 to resolve the issue of the regional conflict over the Moroccan Sahara. On the other hand, the return of Morocco to the African Union in 2017. Five: The junction between national and international priorities in the same speech subtly conveys the same message. It is up to the intranational and international actors to grasp it at its true value and interpret it appropriately. President Donald Trump's style, through the slogan 'America First,' which grates on the United States' rival nerves, allows him to break the iceberg of doubt among his allies and adversaries. During his recent tour of the Gulf region, he returned to Washington with promises of investments amounting to trillions of dollars. Enough to leave political and economic planners and military strategists disoriented, most of whom are still navigating the uncertainties of the Cold War or Third World literature. The style of King Mohammed VI is equally productive of positive results. Since the speech on August 20, 2022, the list of countries that publicly recognize Moroccan sovereignty over its southern provinces or endorse the autonomy plan proposed since 2007 has expanded. The latest endorsement to date is from the United Kingdom, on June 1, 2025. One could quibble over the terminology used or the choice of syntax, however, one thing is certain: now, three permanent member countries of the United Nations Security Council support Morocco. They are on the list of 117 countries around the world that adopt the same position: the resolution of the regional conflict over the Sahara cannot but within (and only in) the framework of Moroccan sovereignty. The various scenes reviewed above normally take place behind closed doors. They lead to legendary quarrels, some of which are recounted in the memoirs of heads of state or foreign ministers. They describe threats, intimidation, and diplomatic harsh cacophonic language. In short, diplomacy evolves at the pace of the changes in the structure of the international system and the processes that unfold within it. It goes without saying that all means intended for the implementation of foreign policy choices are equal as long as they are creative, preemptive, and reactive in serenity and calm. By the same token, it is worth noting that post-COVID diplomacy will be more surrealistic for some and more realistic for others. Nevertheless, as long as diplomacy works to clarify perceptions instead of stifling them, it will have achieved its objective. Negotiation between sovereign states is now in the spotlight, with styles that sometimes confuse observers. However, these styles do not resemble the classical model of l'État spectacle . Similarly, diplomacy no longer fits into the all-encompassing manipulation scheme. Although diplomacy still keeps the classic channels open for less urgent matters, it is more direct. It is now dealt with in the open, performing some sort of new bargaining power style . Tags: Africa diplomacyDonald Trump
