Latest news with #SpartanCapitalSecurities
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Tariff extension signals tough road ahead in US-China talks: Peter Cardillo
However, there's another issue: do the markets really trust the macro data? "Obviously, the markets are beginning to realise that every time Trump blinks or changes his mind, it just adds another big question mark. As for today's market, I don't think this move will have much impact. The major focus will be on the inflation data," says Peter Cardillo, Spartan Capital Securities. What do you make of the latest announcement from Trump, where he has extended the deadline to impose additional tariffs on China by 90 days? What does this mean for other economies, especially India, where additional tariffs have been levied? Peter Cardillo: Well, it basically puts everything back on hold. It gives the markets more time to assess what may or may not happen with China and India as well. It's Trump flipping again, which indicates that China is a tough negotiator. In one respect, that's good news. In another, it's not—because we still don't know how this is going to end. Obviously, the markets are beginning to realise that every time Trump blinks or changes his mind, it just adds another big question mark. As for today's market, I don't think this move will have much impact. The major focus will be on the inflation data. You just mentioned that the major focus will be on the inflation data due later today for the US markets. Earlier, you said that even a baseline tariff of 10–15% would be inflationary for the US. But now, tariffs—nearly 40% in some cases—have come into play. How do you see all this panning out, especially for the US consumer, who will ultimately pay more if higher import duties are imposed? Peter Cardillo: Absolutely. Even if you get a baseline inflation impact of 10%, and so far, it has been around 15%, let's assume the average will be somewhere between 10% and 15%—it's still inflationary. It's not going to send inflation through the roof, but it will keep it elevated. And once again, we're going to see that in today's numbers. We're expecting headline inflation to rise by 0.3%, and the key will be core inflation, which we also expect to increase by 0.3%. On a yearly basis, it's very possible that core inflation could tick back up to 3%. That would confirm that tariffs are keeping inflation elevated and that the American consumer is the one paying the price. Since we're talking about inflation, in this backdrop, what are you expecting from the Federal Reserve's meeting in September? There are hopes that the Fed could cut rates—possibly twice—for the rest of this calendar year. What's your estimate? Peter Cardillo: We will get rate cuts—there's no doubt about that. The economy has slowed, and it's slowing rather quickly, as we saw with the employment numbers. Of course, it's not a good combination to see the economy slow while inflation rises—that's a sign of stagflation. But they will act. I think we'll get some insight into this at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 21–23. If the September labour market data comes in much weaker—or shows negative jobs growth—the Fed may be forced to cut by 50 basis points in one go, instead of two 25-basis-point cuts. That could be enough for the rest of the year. However, there's another issue: do the markets really trust the macro data?
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Tariff extension signals tough road ahead in US-China talks: Peter Cardillo
"Obviously, the markets are beginning to realise that every time Trump blinks or changes his mind, it just adds another big question mark. As for today's market, I don't think this move will have much impact. The major focus will be on the inflation data," says Peter Cardillo , Spartan Capital Securities. What do you make of the latest announcement from Trump, where he has extended the deadline to impose additional tariffs on China by 90 days? What does this mean for other economies, especially India, where additional tariffs have been levied? Peter Cardillo: Well, it basically puts everything back on hold. It gives the markets more time to assess what may or may not happen with China and India as well. It's Trump flipping again, which indicates that China is a tough negotiator. In one respect, that's good news. In another, it's not—because we still don't know how this is going to end. Obviously, the markets are beginning to realise that every time Trump blinks or changes his mind, it just adds another big question mark. As for today's market, I don't think this move will have much impact. The major focus will be on the inflation data. Finance Value and Valuation Masterclass Batch-1 By CA Himanshu Jain View Program Finance Value and Valuation Masterclass - Batch 2 By CA Himanshu Jain View Program Finance Value and Valuation Masterclass - Batch 3 By CA Himanshu Jain View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals By Vaibhav Sisinity View Program Finance Value and Valuation Masterclass - Batch 4 By CA Himanshu Jain View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program You just mentioned that the major focus will be on the inflation data due later today for the US markets. Earlier, you said that even a baseline tariff of 10–15% would be inflationary for the US. But now, tariffs—nearly 40% in some cases—have come into play. How do you see all this panning out, especially for the US consumer, who will ultimately pay more if higher import duties are imposed? Peter Cardillo: Absolutely. Even if you get a baseline inflation impact of 10%, and so far, it has been around 15%, let's assume the average will be somewhere between 10% and 15%—it's still inflationary. It's not going to send inflation through the roof, but it will keep it elevated. And once again, we're going to see that in today's numbers. We're expecting headline inflation to rise by 0.3%, and the key will be core inflation, which we also expect to increase by 0.3%. On a yearly basis, it's very possible that core inflation could tick back up to 3%. That would confirm that tariffs are keeping inflation elevated and that the American consumer is the one paying the price. Live Events Since we're talking about inflation, in this backdrop, what are you expecting from the Federal Reserve's meeting in September? There are hopes that the Fed could cut rates—possibly twice—for the rest of this calendar year. What's your estimate? Peter Cardillo: We will get rate cuts—there's no doubt about that. The economy has slowed, and it's slowing rather quickly, as we saw with the employment numbers. Of course, it's not a good combination to see the economy slow while inflation rises—that's a sign of stagflation. But they will act. I think we'll get some insight into this at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 21–23. If the September labour market data comes in much weaker—or shows negative jobs growth—the Fed may be forced to cut by 50 basis points in one go, instead of two 25-basis-point cuts. That could be enough for the rest of the year. However, there's another issue: do the markets really trust the macro data?
Business Recorder
06-08-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
S&P 500, Nasdaq higher after mostly good earnings
NEW YORK: Wall Street stocks mostly rose early Wednesday as markets digested a generally positive set of corporate earnings and monitored trade talks ahead of a White House tariff deadline. While company results have broadly topped analyst expectations, share price movements have been unpredictable, with analysts pointing to profit taking following a heady period for stocks. 'We are at hefty levels,' said Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities, pointing to a tendency of investors to cash out. About 20 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down less than 0.1 percent at 44,097.74. Wall Street turns negative as economic data, tariff uncertainty weigh The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.2 percent at 6,311.14, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.3 percent to 20,986.42. Among individual companies, Disney fell 5.0 percent as it reported around a doubling of profits to $5.3 billion and announced a series of new deals to boost its upcoming ESPN streaming venture. Uber fell 1.0 percent despite reporting higher profits and announcing a $20 billion share repurchase package. Analysts noted that shares have risen about 45 percent so far in 2025. Governments around the world are racing to try to reach last-minute deals with Donald Trump's administration as new waves of US tariffs are due to take effect this week, first on many Brazilian products Wednesday and then on dozens of other economies beginning Thursday.
Time of India
06-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Tariff shock temporary, fundamentals will prevail: Peter Cardillo
"A 200% or 250% tariff? That would force countries exporting pharmaceuticals to the U.S. to shut down operations—that's just not feasible. Could something like this go into effect briefly, for a week or two? Possibly. But it won't be sustainable," says Peter Cardillo , Spartan Capital Securities . What do you make of the latest announcements on the tariff front? Trump is saying tariffs could go up to 250%. What do you make of these comments? Peter Cardillo: Well, obviously, Trump is once again putting on pressure and threatening steeper tariffs so that, eventually, he can strike deals—especially with countries like India. Whether or not those steep tariffs will actually be implemented, I'm not certain. I think we'll eventually see lower tariffs being imposed. He also says he's collecting trillions and trillions of dollars, and yes, that may be true. But let's not forget—even a baseline tariff of 10% or 15% is inflationary. So yes, he may be paying down debt, as he claims, and the trade deficit may shrink, giving a false impression of economic activity. But consumers are unlikely to spend the way they were six months ago, simply because prices are now higher. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Why is everyone rushing to get their hands on this new air cooler? News of the Discovery Undo He also mentioned tariffs on pharmaceuticals—saying they'll be raised to 150% in the next week or so, and eventually to 250% within a year. Is that even realistic? What kind of impact would that have on U.S. inflation? Is 250% really feasible? Peter Cardillo: No, absolutely not. These are just threats. A 200% or 250% tariff? That would force countries exporting pharmaceuticals to the U.S. to shut down operations—that's just not feasible. Could something like this go into effect briefly, for a week or two? Possibly. But it won't be sustainable. Shifting focus to energy now. Trump has made statements about potential sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy. At the same time, India's NSA, Ajit Doval, is currently in Russia for strategic meetings. How do you see this scenario unfolding? Trump is also expected to speak with Russian officials. What could be the possible outcomes of these meetings—between Russia and India, and separately, Russia and the U.S.? Peter Cardillo: They'll likely reach some sort of agreement. I don't think India is going to stop trading with the United States—it will continue to do so. Will it also trade with Russia for oil? Probably. But perhaps there will be a split—India might source some oil from the U.S. as well, instead of relying solely on Russia. A mutual agreement is likely. What we're witnessing isn't just a war of tariffs—it's a war of words. Eventually, some sort of resolution will emerge. Of course, this rhetoric can weigh heavily on the markets—not just in India or the U.S., but globally. However, if you look at global markets, most are focused on the fundamentals, and earnings have been very strong. So yes, you might see a one-day pullback due to tariff threats or related developments, but ultimately, investors focus on fundamentals. That's what will play out over the next few weeks, even as Trump announces tariffs on chips and pharmaceutical products. You may get one or two days of market volatility, but in the end, those steep tariff threats will push trading partners to the negotiating table. Live Events
Yahoo
01-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Investors react to Kugler's resignation, firing of BLS commissioner
(Reuters) -The Federal Reserve said on Friday that Governor Adriana Kugler was resigning from the central bank effective Aug. 8. Separately, U.S President Donald Trump ordered that the commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika L. McEntarfer, be fired after data showed employment growth was weaker than expected last month. COMMENTS: PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK "Obviously, (Adriana's resignation) is a negative, and that'll probably continue to pressure the dollar. That's not a good sign, when someone resigns, unless there is a personal reason, there is always a question mark as to why. So the unknown factor of that usually adds to uncertainties. "Of course, you had a major revision in the employment numbers so it's a fact that Trump fired the Commissioner of Labour Statistics, basically questioning the accuracy of these numbers because of that huge revision that we had. So, anytime something like this happens, it always raises uncertainties." CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF US ECONOMIST, NATIXIS ,NEW YORK: 'The interim BLS Chief looks to be an accomplished technocrat, which is a great sign. Going forward, should the fidelity of the data be compromised, this would place the markets and Fed in a very precarious position. I would expect the Fed to rely more and more on the anecdotes it collects from the Beige Book. Her (Adriana Kugler's ) term was set to expire in January, so no great change in policy. I have not seen an indication that she is resigning in protest, but the timing is very curious' JODY CALEMINE, DIRECTOR OF ADVOCACY, AFL-CIO, WASHINGTON, D.C. 'Today was probably the last reliable jobs report we will ever see. This isn't good for anybody looking to see what's going on with the economy, not just for workers but for the business community in general.' 'This morning's jobs report was showing what was the first indicators of probably a coming recession…it's clear he fired her (McEntarfer) for issuing a jobs report he just didn't like.' On Kugler: 'The Fed board should be independent of the president, that's for sure. He (Trump) is wielding increasingly authoritarian control over different agencies, and clearly he wants to wield that control over the Fed. The markets have kept that impulse in check so far. He's increasingly out of control.' JUAN PEREZ, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF TRADING, MONEX USA, WASHINGTON: "The way (the market) is going to interpret (the departures) is in a very dollar-negative way." "No matter what the economic picture in the United States, the one thing that holds the U.S. dollar strong in the eyes of the world is the authority and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Whenever anything comes to potentially put that into compromise then that's when the U.S. dollar spirals down." PETER TUZ, PRESIDENT OF CHASE INVESTMENT COUNSEL IN CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA "There will be an opening for the Trump administration to fill. It's likely he will choose somebody whose views on interest rates match his own. Then Treasury Secretary Bessent wants to have a list of possible replacements for the Fed Chair by the end of the year so, Trump is getting a bigger chance to appoint people whose views match his own." Regarding Trump's order to fire Erika L. McEntarfe, he said: "I don't like to see a bureaucrat fired just because the data that gets presented doesn't support the administration's policies. We have a president who believes the economy is strong and that interest rates should be cut . I have read nothing that suggests she was not doing a good job or conscientious. It's upsetting. We're killing the messenger here instead of trying to see what the data really says and go from there. I see no evidence that the numbers were ever manipulated. It wouldn't be big news today if it happened a lot. Certainly, it's unusual." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team) Sign in to access your portfolio
