2 days ago
How Kier Starmer's government is scoring with the public one year since the North East turned red
It was just a year after his landslide election victory, but following a high-profile humiliation, Sir Keir Starmer seriously considered quitting.
I'm actually talking about how he won the Labour leadership in April 2020, and has admitted he thought about stepping down after defeat at the Hartlepool by-election the following May - rather than any indication that he's considering his future as Prime Minister, following the mess made of welfare reforms this week.
It is a reminder that he's succeeded in turning things around before.
Then, surely more than anything, he benefited from Conservative implosion.
But the late spring of 2021 is also seen as a turning point, when he moved away from a message of unity following Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, and took on the left of his party, moving it to the centre ground - from where he won a thumping majority of MPs at last summer's general election.
However, any impression that he had the backing of a 400-strong army of loyal 'Starmtroopers' has now been well and truly shattered, with a rebellion against the government's plans for the benefits system leading to the low point of his premiership so far.
Labour MPs from the North East and North Yorkshire were at the heart of some extraordinary scenes in the Commons on Tuesday 1 July.
York Central's Rachael Maskell, author of the final amendment trying to block the bill, claimed it would lead to "Dickensian cuts" to support for some of the most vulnerable people in society.
Shortly before the vote, Disability Minister Stephen Timms then announced a final huge concession - changes to eligibility for Personal Independence Payment would not take effect until after the conclusions of a review he's leading.
Blyth and Ashington MP Ian Lavery angrily declared, "This is crazy, man. This is outrageous, man," about the handling of the situation.
City of Durham MP Mary Kelly Foy said: "I popped out for a banana earlier on, and when I came back in, things had changed again, so I'm even more unclear on what I'm voting on."
That prompted laughter from colleagues in the Commons, but there's been little reason for ministers to be amused, even if Rachel Reeves' tears at PMQs the following day were due to a "personal issue."
Despite the capitulation on the contents of the welfare bill, eight Labour MPs from our region still voted against it.
Most of them are firmly left-wing, part of a relatively small caucus that remains within Labour's parliamentary ranks.
And, with some timing, we've now seen the announcement of plans to form a new left-wing party, involving Mr Corbyn.
It's not wise, though, to get too carried away at this stage - who remembers Change UK?
The biggest threat to Labour surely remains Reform UK, as evidenced in May's local elections in our region, and with opinion polls suggesting they would make huge gains across the North East and North Yorkshire if a general election was held now.
Chris Eynon, who came second in Sunderland Central last year, told us: "the Red Wall is very, very prime for the taking for the Reform party."
They won their first seat on North Tyneside Council this week, though also lost one to the Liberal Democrats in County Durham.
That came after one of Reform's councillors resigned within days of being elected, because he also worked for the council and you're not allowed to do both.
It's the kind of mishap that opponents will hope to see repeated in the coming months and years, as Reform are really tested for the first time, running Durham County Council and nine others around the country.
Of course the final years of Conservative rule at Westminster became defined by a certain level of Berwick MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan was moved between six different cabinet or ministerial roles within five years.
She told me this week that the Tories need to gradually rebuild confidence, trying to re-assert themselves as "the sensible party".
Of course Labour pledged to bring stability, when they all but swept the board in the North East on their way into government last summer.
Bridget Phillipson was the country's first confirmed MP that night, thanks to the speedy Sunderland counting system.
She became one of the Prime Minister's key lieutenants as Education Secretary, and we spoke to her today (4 July) after she made a speech to teachers in the North East about making sure children are ready to start school.
On the election anniversary, she told us, "We haven't got everything right and I think we'd be the first to acknowledge that, but I'm really proud of the achievements of the last year," pointing to investment in schools, free breakfast clubs, and childcare places within her remit.
On room for improvement, she seemed to agree with analysis that ministers haven't been good enough at setting out a real narrative and vision, saying the government should be "clearer in communicating what we're doing".
That surely applies to any focus on supporting regions like the North East to tackle regional inequalities - what the Conservatives used to call "levelling up".
More quietly, Labour have looked to work closely with regional mayors, and tweaked borrowing and value-for-money rules to allow longer-term investment.
We've seen the announcement of the Tyne and Wear Metro being extended to Washington, but also the cancellation of plans to upgrade the A1 in Northumberland.
The recent spending review promised investment in 350 deprived areas around the UK, which it's expected will mean funding for things like youth clubs, libraries and community-run grocers, in an effort to bring visible change.
That does feel similar to the last government's various funding pots for local regeneration schemes.
More widely, Labour ministers argue they have set their own direction by making "tough decisions."
It's too early for much data to show whether they've set the country on the right course.
But, for example, the future of the two-child benefit cap was a controversial topic when I interviewed Bridget Phillipson a week into her new government role last July, and it's an issue that remains to be resolved now.
Another fight with Labour MPs looks likely - particularly with expected welfare savings now lost, the Chancellor having pledged not to raise taxes on "working people", and little sign of roaring economic growth materialising.
The next year doesn't look much easier.
