Latest news with #StockExchangeofThailandIndex
Bangkok Post
2 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Momentum test ahead for improving SET
The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index has risen steadily over the past two months, gaining more than 200 points from its bottom of 1,054 on June 23. A number of supportive factors have come into play, among them: Easing short-term worries over US tariffs, now that Thailand has secured a rate of 19%, not much different from that of key competitors. Clearer direction on policy interest rate cuts. Easing tensions at the Thai-Cambodia border, though the situation has to be monitored closely. Not bad second-quarter earnings, with less than 25% of companies posting weaker-than-expected results -- less than the average. Fewer cases of earnings downgrades, from 1-3% a month to less than 1%, reflecting that the downward revision cycle is ending. In fact, there seem to be signs of upward revisions in many more sectors. Market impact from rises in individual stocks, most notably DELTA and THAI. The latter continued to soar after trade resumed on Aug 4, until its market capitalisation reached a peak on par with Singapore Airlines at close to 500 billion factor that has driven THAI beyond its fundamentals is speculation about accumulation by funds. Many will be obliged to have the stock in their portfolios if it is added to the SET50 in the next round of index rebalancing -- especially index-linked passive funds. As well, demand is boosted by tight available supply as more than 93% of the shares are still locked up during a silent period. Speculation on further equity-related inflows in anticipation of potential reweighting of the Thai market by MSCI or FTSE could attract more passive funds, also keeping the SET in bullish mode. At this point, the SET has already hit its target at 1,280 points and we expect the benchmark to consolidate around 1,270 to 1,280 to cool down and sustain momentum. This could imply stock rotation -- liquidity stays in the market but in different stocks. In this case, we could see investors shifting from firms that have already rallied to others that have yet to follow suit, particularly key sectors such as petrochemicals which used to lead the market upward. However, two key stocks that have not yet been bought back, in the power and retail sectors, have faced pressures from specific headwinds. For individual plays in these two sectors, we see a fair chance that fund flows will return to GULF and CPALL, which have faced less pressure than their respective sectoral peers. Among the positive factors that could help sentiment in the Thai market this week: Monitor post-results analysts' meetings, eyeing potential upward revisions of earnings forecasts for certain stocks not exposed to substantial pressure. Easing tensions on the geopolitical front. Even though the Trump-Putin summit was inconclusive, it has set the stage by prompting more talks among all parties involved in seeking an end to the war in Ukraine. Thai economic indicators for July, the final month with a 10% US tariff rate. After July, expect to see a slowdown in exports to the US, after months of increased shipments to beat higher tariffs. Clearer rate cut direction and signals from the incoming Bank of Thailand governor, who weighs economic conditions in parallel with financial system stability, which the market tends to view more positively. Among the negative factors to be aware of: The Thai-Cambodia conflict remains a sensitive issue. Besides the impact on specific Cambodia-focused stocks such as CBG, market participants are starting to focus on the sustained pressure faced by the government. Political uncertainties that include the court ruling on the PM's ethics case on Aug 29, a fragile coalition and expectations of more anti-government protests. It has yet to be seen how the government will adjust to manage public expectations. Reality check time as impact of the Trump tariffs on the US and global economies becomes clearer. Investors will seek more details of US inflation, particularly the extent of price increases for imported goods, and the magnitude of declines in Chinese exports and manufacturing. All in all, uncertainties on the global or domestic levels could drive liquidity back towards safe havens again.
Business Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thailand's economic recovery at risk amid PM suspension, tariffs
[BANGKOK] Thailand's political crisis deepened on Jul 1 as the Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over a leaked phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen – a move that may temporarily defuse protests, but injects fresh uncertainty into an already-flagging economy. While the court's 7-2 ruling may have calmed tensions on the streets, it does little to dispel deeper anxieties over Thailand's longer-term political and economic woes, with investors and businesses now bracing themselves for months of limbo. This adds downside risk to a growth outlook already clouded by uncertainty over US tariffs. 'The immediate aftermath of these court decisions is usually heightened uncertainty regarding policy continuity. The sustainability of the government and its associated policies will need to be addressed sooner rather than later,' remarked Lavanya Venkateswaran, OCBC's senior Asean economist, in a recent note. The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index climbed nearly 2 per cent on Jul 1, perhaps buoyed by hopes that the court ruling would take the steam out of a growing protest movement calling for the resignation of Paetongtarn, 38. A demonstration on Saturday (Jun 28) drew a crowd of up to 30,000 at Bangkok's Victory Monument. Those gains have quickly evaporated, with the market ending flat on Wednesday as investors weighed Thailand's uncertain political future, the risks of policy paralysis, delayed Budget spending, and the spectre of another military intervention. 'Despite the mixed market reaction, we see (the court's) move as exacerbating prevailing uncertainties related to the economic outlook... the timing could not be more inconvenient,' said Venkateswaran. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Paetongtarn, the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has been accused of putting the country's sovereignty at risk after she held a private phone conversation on Jun 15 with Hun Sen, in which she discussed a border dispute between the two neighbours. In the audio clip, which Hun Sen leaked to his colleagues, Paetongtarn is heard describing the Thai army commander of the second region (which borders Cambodia) as an 'opponent' and calling Hun Sen 'uncle'. Hun Sen is a family friend of the Shinawatras. Bangkok has been the scene of numerous Thaksin-related street protests over the past two decades, two of which (in 2006 and 2014) have resulted in military coups. Thailand's economy, already in the doldrums owing to tariff headwinds and slowing private consumption, is expected to see gross domestic product expand a limpid 1.6 to 1.8 per cent this year. Analysts warn that growth could dip further as political uncertainty threatens government spending, compounding the drag from soft exports expected in the second half of 2025. The projected growth rate is among the slowest in South-east Asia, trailing far behind regional peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines, with GDP in each country forecast to increase by more than 5 per cent, and Vietnam's official projection of 6.5 per cent and higher. In short, the kingdom can ill afford another military coup and its undesirable consequences – economic stagnation, capital flight and foreign condemnation. 'If a coup comes again, Thailand would just be finished,' said Dr Pavida Pananond, professor of business at Thammasat University. 'With another coup, you can predict another 10 years in the land of the forgotten,' she added, referring to the political isolation and economic stagnation that often follow military takeovers. On the same day as the court ruling, a new Cabinet line-up was announced in the official government publication Royal Gazette. The new members will be sworn in on Jul 3, with Paetongtarn staying on as culture minister. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, a member of the leading Pheu Thai Party, is expected to become acting prime minister while Paetongtarn's case is under way at the Constitutional Court (a process that could take one to three months). If she is found guilty, Paetongtarn is likely to be banned from politics for 10 years, and Chaikasem Nitisiri – one of three Pheu Thai candidates for the premiership in the May 2023 election – is likely to be appointed the next prime minister. The new Cabinet's priority should be the passing of the 2026 fiscal Budget, which would assure a steady flow of government spending on important commitments, such as civil-servant salaries and ongoing stimulus and pro-poor schemes. 'The acting prime minister can still perform duties, including pushing through the Budget Bill,' said Weerawat Wirojphoka, director of securities analysis at Finansia Syrus Securities, in an interview with Krungthep Turakij. After the last general election in 2023, the process of setting up a new Cabinet was so lengthy that Budget disbursements were delayed for months, resulting in 2 per cent GDP growth that year, with public investment declining 4.2 per cent. While the country has enjoyed 3.1 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2025, driven in part by a 15 per cent jump in exports year on year, the year's outlook has been overshadowed by US President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs announced on Apr 2. Thailand was to be charged a flat 36 per cent, as it is among the top-10 countries with a trade surplus with the US. The high tariffs have been paused pending trade negotiations. Thai Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, who is reportedly seeking to reduce the tariffs to 10 per cent, is leading a trade delegation to Washington, where negotiations are expected to continue on Jul 3. While Pichai has retained his post as finance minister in the new Cabinet, he is unlikely to be negotiating from a position of strength given the uncertainties about his government's longevity. 'It will undermine the leverage of the negotiating team if their tenure cannot be confirmed and they cannot guarantee that they will implement whatever they guarantee to the Trump team,' noted Dr Pavida. 'And, in the longer term, it relieves Thai policymakers from the need to focus on what to do with the industrial policy to help Thailand get out of this economic doldrums,' she said. 'Trump tariffs need to be considered not just as a trade negotiation exercise but also as an opportunity to rethink Thailand's economic growth model in the longer run.' All eyes are now on how the country will balance governance continuity with political fallout as Paetongtarn's case unfolds, and whether the acting administration can maintain investor confidence and manage trade relations before the uncertainty begins to bite.
Yahoo
28-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Thai Stocks Head for Bear Market Amid Economic Growth Woes
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand's benchmark stock index headed for a technical bear market amid investor concerns about the growth outlook for Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. Cuts to Section 8 Housing Assistance Loom Amid HUD Uncertainty The Trump Administration Takes Aim at Transportation Research Shelters Await Billions in Federal Money for Homelessness Providers NYC's Congestion Pricing Pulls In $48.6 Million in First Month NYC Office Buildings See Resurgence as Investors Pile Into Bonds The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index fell as much as 2.4% on Friday, taking its decline from an October high to more than 20%. Shares of Delta Electronics Thailand Pcl and Airports of Thailand Pcl were among the biggest contributors to the slide. Foreign investors have continued to sell stocks in Asia's worst performing equity market in 2025 after withdrawing almost $10 billion in the last two years. Concerns are mounting that Thailand's economy, which missed growth targets last year, will be further impacted by US President Donald Trump's pledges to impose tariffs on various nations. 'The continued weakness in the SET is driven by the weak Thai economy, as government policies over the past decade have not led to any structural improvements,' said Pon Van Compernolle, a managing partner at RVC Emerging Asia Fund. It 'is evidence of a lack of faith in the capital markets amid a continued selling spree from both foreign and local institutions.' Global funds have sold $381 million of local shares on a net basis so far this year, according to data complied by Bloomberg as of Thursday. The country is vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs from the US as it has higher import levies on US goods than those Washington applies to its shipments there. Government agencies are examining measures to protect Thailand's trade interests, while Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has appealed for 'closer' cooperation between the Bank of Thailand and the Finance Ministry to shore up growth. The drop in Thai stocks was part of a broader selloff in the region as Trump's latest threats on tariffs weighed on sentiment. Indonesia's benchmark stock index also fell, poised to end the day in a technical bear market. That has spurred a more than 10% decline in the MSCI Asean index from a peak in September. (Updates with details throughout) Trump's SALT Tax Promise Hinges on an Obscure Loophole Warner Bros. Movie Heads Are Burning Cash, and Their Boss Is Losing Patience Walmart Wants to Be Something for Everyone in a Divided America China Learned to Embrace What the US Forgot: The Virtues of Creative Destruction OXO Fought Back Against the Black Spatula Panic. People Defected Anyway ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
