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The National
7 days ago
- Politics
- The National
This is one lesson we have taken from the 2014 referendum
This week it was Storm Floris causing all the bother. Last week, it was Storm Donald, on one of his rare visits to his golf course at Menie, which caused the disruption to routine. As the circus rolled into town, it was a visit which it seemed everyone had an opinion and an angle on. The Tories in particular had no shortage of advice about what they thought the First Minister should and should not be doing when he met with the US president – something which momentarily put me in mind of a line from a Christy Moore song about how Irish politicians carried on when Ronald Reagan visited Ireland. READ MORE: Why Craig Murray is lobbying UN ambassadors on Scottish 'decolonisation' There's an old military adage that you salute the rank rather than the person and in politics, the struggle is to respect the office no matter how difficult it might be to respect the office holder. On that score, during a visit which had much more scope for things to go wrong for him than go right, I think that the First Minister carried both his person and his rank on behalf of the country he represents flawlessly. There's a place for tub-thumping in politics and there's a place for subtlety, even where Donald Trump is concerned. I think that the dignified speaking of truth to power exhibited by the First Minister is the way that most Scots want their leaders to engage with the rest of the world. The contrast with the fawning obsequiousness that will be on display next month when Trump has his state visit to Windsor will be illuminating, at least for those with eyes willing to see it. Without trying to grandstand or posture, the First Minister landed key and serious points about the desperate situation in Gaza, as well as the impact of continued US tariffs on Scotch whisky. Meanwhile, in the very opposite of what he probably thought was a 'power move', Keir Starmer opted to disappear before the coffee was served. But perhaps the most significant meeting in the First Minister's diary last week was that with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The small talk for the cameras beforehand and the sanitised official 'readouts' afterwards can only tell us so much. READ MORE: It's Scots who should be telling the stories of our country's culture and traditions However, we should be in no doubt about the symbolism involved, and the importance of such meetings taking place in terms of keeping the light on for Scotland in Brussels. Listening on the radio afterwards to the sniffy disdain of former UK ambassador to the US, Kim Darroch, it was clear that the right people in the British establishment had been left suitably miffed by the First Minister and Scotland's prominence in events. For which thoughts and prayers, obviously. Casting minds back to 2014, it's clear that while there was a lot of interest internationally when it came to the prospect of Scottish independence, there was also a lot of nervousness over what the ramifications might be for other states, as well as organisations like Nato and the EU. Being honest, there was also a fair amount of international bafflement about why Scots might want to leave the UK at all. No-one now cares what Mariano Rajoy and José Barroso had to say at the time about Scottish independence, or how it suited their own domestic politics and personal ambitions respectively to make it sound like something that was at best difficult and at worst undesirable and impossible. But like it or not, their words had impact, and were repeated gleefully by a Scottish press corps dominated by those in hock to Unionism. I've written plenty in these columns about the need to have the kind of democratic legitimacy for independence which only comes from building up solid public backing. But taking our place in the world as an independent state will also require the legitimacy which only comes from gaining international recognition. Getting to that point – even with the support of enough of the Scottish people behind us and perhaps even to attract such levels of domestic democratic support in the first place – requires if not the explicit support, then at least the understanding of the international community about the direction of travel Scotland is engaged in and the desire of independence supporters to make it happen peaceably and democratically. Post-Brexit, there is a much better understanding in Europe of why Scotland might now wish to be independent although realistically, we are never going to get a full-throated endorsement for independence from any of our neighbours. READ MORE: Kate Forbes doesn't rule out return to politics after shock decision to stand down However, navigating as many as possible to a place where they instead say 'independence is an internal matter and we will respect the choice of the people of Scotland, whatever that is' would be a significant advance on 2014. There are lessons which were never properly learned from the outcome of 2014, but the signs are good that this is one of the lessons that was learned. Soft power and influence matter. Our elected representatives – backbenchers as well as ministers and first ministers – all have lots of opportunities to engage both formally and informally with international opinion-formers and decision-makers, be they politicians, diplomats, journalists or representatives of business and civil society. When they do, the question of when Scotland will be holding another referendum is the one which is often asked first. No such opportunity can or will be missed for making our case, building that understanding and, ultimately, for staking our claim.
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Inflation slows to 2.6pc in ‘calm before the storm'
Inflation eased back last month, paving the way for interest rate cuts as economists said 'Storm Donald' would limit price rises but hurt growth. The Chancellor welcomed the drop in inflation to 2.6pc from 2.8pc but warned that Donald Trump's trade war had left UK households facing 'an anxious time because of a changing world'. Economists also said the boost was likely to be short-lived, describing the figures as the 'calm before the storm' of escalating trade tensions and a slew of higher taxes and bills from the beginning of April. Prices, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose by 2.6pc in the year to March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), down from 2.8pc in February. The drop is more than analysts' expectations of a fall to 2.7pc. Statisticians said the fall was driven by a drop in petrol and diesel prices, as escalating trade tensions pushed down expectations for global growth. The price of a litre of petrol fell by 1.6p per litre last month to just over £1.37, down from just under £1.45 in March 2024. Diesel prices also fell by 1.6p per litre to £1.45 pence per litre last month. Grant Fitzner, the ONS's chief economist, said: 'Inflation eased again in March, driven by a variety of factors including falling fuel prices and unchanged food costs compared with the price rises we saw this time last year. 'The only significant offset came from the price of clothes, which rose strongly this month, following the unusual decrease in February.' The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates to 4.25pc next month from 4.5pc in a boost for households, as mortgage costs continue to fall. Santander launched two and five-year fixed rate mortgage deals below 4pc this week. Policymakers still expect prices to rise further in the second half of the year against a backdrop of higher taxes and energy prices as well as net zero packaging costs that producers warn will add to price rises. Water bills rose by as much as 47pc this month, with households in England as much as £225 a year worse off after the increase. The energy price cap also rose by 6pc to £1,849 a year for a typical household in April. Michael Saunders, an adviser at Oxford Economics and a former rate-setter at the Bank, described the figures as 'the calm before the storm' as he predicted inflation would rise above 3.1pc next month. This would trigger a letter from Andrew Bailey to the Chancellor to explain the increase. The Bank currently expects inflation to peak at almost 4pc in the second half of the year, almost twice its target. However, he warned that 'Storm Donald' could actually bring a wave of falling prices, which could benefit consumers but hurt businesses unable to compete with cheap goods from China being diverted into the UK. Mr Saunders told the BBC: 'Inflation is a little lower than expected, but this is very much the calm before the storm. In the April figures, which will come out next month, we'll see increases in gas prices, electricity prices and water charges that are likely to lift inflation above 3pc while reducing consumer spending power.' Mr Saunders said increased to the minimum wage and National Insurance were already starting to impact the economy by adding to costs and pushing up prices. He added: 'We'll start to see the effects on the economy of storm Donald with the Trump trade wars, which are likely to hit exports and investment in the UK and around the world, and we may get a diversion of cheap exports which might have otherwise gone to the US will start to come to Europe and the UK. 'I think the overall effect of that is inflation will be higher in the next few months – perhaps not as high as the Bank of England would fear a few months ago – where the economy will be weaker, with exports, investment and consumer spending all hit, and unemployment starting to rise.' Economists have been pricing in lower borrowing costs as a result of Mr Trump's trade war, which some believe could trigger a global recession. The Chancellor welcomed the figures: 'Inflation falling for two months in a row, wages growing faster than prices and positive growth figures are encouraging signs that our Plan for Change is working, but there is more to be done.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Sign in to access your portfolio
