Latest news with #StuartKaiser
Bloomberg
21-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
The Biggest Market Risks to Your Summer Vacation
Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citi, runs down what he sees as the top market risks for investors to be aware of over the summer. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi's Kaiser Says Recession Possible, Likes Small Caps
Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup's head of US equity trading strategy, says the odds of a US recession are a "coin flip" right now and explains why he is bullish on small-cap stocks during an interview on "Bloomberg Open Interest."
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi, JPMorgan See 2025's Laggards Turning Short-Term Winners
(Bloomberg) -- Two of Wall Street's major trading desks are making the same bold call on US stocks as trade tensions ease: Pile into this year's biggest losers for quick, short-term profits. As Coastline Erodes, One California City Considers 'Retreat Now' What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors How Finland Is Harvesting Waste Heat From Data Centers Lawsuit Challenges Trump Administration Policy on Migrant Children Heads of equity trading at Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say they're particularly bullish over the next few weeks on small caps, technology hardware and homebuilders, which have each lagged the broader S&P 500 Index during the most recent leg up. In the current environment, Stuart Kaiser, who runs Citigroup's desk as head of US equity trading strategy, also likes shares of companies with weaker finances, he said. With the broader US stock indexes already erasing their declines of the year, the firms now say the traders and other speculative buyers who missed out will be on the hunt for pockets of opportunity to play catch-up before the next bout of tariff-induced turbulence strikes again. 'There will be significant buying from systematic traders and discretionary investors who haven't captured as much of this rally as they would have liked,' Kaiser said. 'Now, they're under-positioned and have a lot money to use to buy some of these laggards.' With commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, slashing their exposure to equities in recent weeks, the run-up in the S&P 500 has cleared the path for many of them to return as buyers, he said. Traders closing out their bearish wagers in the Russell 2000 Index will also likely spur more gains for small caps in the coming weeks, he added. Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence for JPMorgan's trading desk, says it makes sense to buy — via derivatives — shares of hard-hit groups like retailers or consumer discretionary on the potential for a near-term short squeeze. That squeeze occurs when a stock's price rises sharply while traders have short positions, forcing them to buy back shares quickly to cut losses. 'Any short squeeze will likely push small- and mid-capitalization companies to outperform,' the JPMorgan team led by Tyler wrote in a Monday note. Short-Term Trend Long-term money managers still see risks in small caps and companies with the most fragile balance sheets given that interest rates remain elevated and economic growth has slowed. While broader markets rallied so far this week because of a reprieve in US-China trade tensions, some investors remain concerned about the possibility of more friction between the two countries down the road. 'We're still not out of the woods on tariffs so we wouldn't buy small caps or own the riskier parts of the market,' said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. 'That may work for a short-term trade, but it doesn't work for those managing money for the next few years.' While small-caps were one of the biggest winners when Donald Trump won the elections — as investors expected his protectionist policies to boost the group — his other proposals, such as tough immigrant laws, can drive up labor costs and squeeze out businesses that derive most of their sales at home. Even so, the short-term trend is telling. Goldman Sachs' weak balance sheet index, which tracks the 50 most indebted companies, has outpaced the S&P 500 in seven of the past eight sessions — evidence that traders are veering toward cheaper stocks. Citi's Kaiser also suggests adding upside exposure to groups that had struggled since Trump first announced his aggressive tariffs on April 2, including tech hardware, consumer durables and those with weak balance sheets. To Dennis Debusschere, founder of 22V Research, there's such a large valuation gap between riskier, economically sensitive companies versus higher-quality names that it leaves more room for the former to rally in the short term. 'Given how onerous the China tariffs were for small caps, that group has the most near-term upside,' he wrote to clients in a Monday note. Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race Trump Has Already Ruined Christmas Why Obesity Drugs Are Getting Cheaper — and Also More Expensive The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Watch These Metrics ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
14-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Citi, JPMorgan See 2025's Laggards Turning Short-Term Winners
Two of Wall Street's major trading desks are making the same bold call on US stocks as trade tensions ease: Pile into this year's biggest losers for quick, short-term profits. Heads of equity trading at Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say they're particularly bullish over the next few weeks on small caps, technology hardware and homebuilders, which have each lagged the broader S&P 500 Index during the most recent leg up. In the current environment, Stuart Kaiser, who runs Citigroup's desk as head of US equity trading strategy, also likes shares of companies with weaker finances, he said.
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'No signal, lots of noise': Sell-off cools down as Trump's tariffs drive wild swings in stock market
A falsely reported update on President Trump's tariff policy set the stage Monday for one of the strangest trading sessions in recent memory. Shortly after the opening bell, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down nearly 5%. Within 30 minutes, it was up 3% as confusion emerged over whether President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on his tariff rollout. As the White House refuted the reports, stocks lost those gains. "No signal, lots of noise," Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser said in a note to clients following Monday's close. "At the edges, tariff negotiation headlines and a noisy-flat day are incremental positives." Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs Markets finished the day off their session lows, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbing into the green by late afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed around 350 points, while the S&P dropped 0.2%. All three of the major averages had opened the day down more than 3%. Chris Watling, chief market strategist at Longview Economics, told Yahoo Finance on Friday that the recent sizable intraday moves signal the market "wants to rally." "Give it a sniff of something that's good news, and whoosh, off you go," he said. "There's a lot of downside protection in this market, a lot of fear ... That is a very, very big move in a very short period of time. So it's indicative of the way the market is positioned." Headlines that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Trump would consider the pause on tariffs caused the immediate surge in stocks — until it became clear that he didn't actually say that. "I think the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide," Hassett said in an interview with Fox News when asked specifically if Trump would consider a 90-day pause. Shortly after the comments, stocks sold off once again before paring losses by mid-afternoon. The White House later described the initial headlines on the pause as "fake news" in a series of posts on X, making clear to investors that the Trump administration is not backing down on implementing reciprocal tariffs on April 9. Trump himself confirmed such a stance while speaking at the White House on Monday. "Well, we're not looking at [a pause in tariffs]," Trump told reporters after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and they're going to be fair deals, and in certain cases, they're going to be paying substantial tariffs." Separately, Trump posted on Truth Social that "if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. The confluence of headlines led to a confusing day for investors. A rally in some Big Tech names helped the major indexes close well off their lows of the day. Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 4%, while Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) rallied roughly 3%. On a sector basis, Information Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) were the lone S&P 500 sectors to close in the green. The worst performers were Real Estate (XLRE), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU), which each fell around 2%. With uncertainty top of mind, action in the bond market flipped on its head. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) had fallen more than 20 basis points in the prior two sessions as Trump's tariffs sparked fears the US economy may be heading for recession. On Monday, a bond market sell-off sent the 10-year up about 17 basis points, nearly in line with levels seen prior to Trump's tariff announcements on April 3. Alexandra Canal and Josh Schafer are Senior Reporters at Yahoo Finance. Sign in to access your portfolio
