Wall Street only cares about one tariff deal today

Axios

24-07-2025

The stock market barely moved off the trade deal with Japan this week, as market sources said that's the new investor playbook for tariff headlines: Ignore them unless it's about China.
Why it matters: The stock market, which is up 27% since the April 8 lows, has already priced in trade deals.
The only thing that could derail that is a negative development in the trade relationship between the U.S. and China.
What they're saying: "Unless the China stuff gets really ugly, I think the market will treat these as minor hiccups and potential buy the dips," Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi, told Axios.
By the numbers: The tariff rate on China matters because companies in the stock market are heavily exposed to China as both a supplier and consumer.
Annual S&P 500 revenue from China sits at $1.2 trillion, Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk told Axios.
That figure is roughly four times the U.S. trade deficit with China.
The cost of goods sold rose over 15% from 2015 to 2019, in part due to the implementation of tariffs in President Trump's first term.
That increase in costs can pressure profits, and therefore stock prices.
Catch up quick: Kaiser noted the pattern in Trump's need for "an adversary," first Japan and now Europe.
By that same logic, the trade deal with Japan may serve as a framework for what may happen with any potential European deal, and thereafter, any deal with China.