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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
RBI survey: Merchandise imports to grow twice more than exports in FY26; check details
India's merchandise imports are set to grow at more than double the pace of exports in the current financial year, according to the Reserve Bank of India 's latest economic outlook. The central bank released the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators (95th Round) on Wednesday. According to the apex bank's findings, 'Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively, during 2025-26.' Looking ahead to 2026-27, merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.9%, while imports are expected to climb by 6.0%. This widening gap in trade could weigh on India's external balance, ANI cited the report. The current account deficit (CAD) is projected at 0.8% of GDP at current market prices for 2025-26, rising slightly to 0.9% in 2026-27. On the broader economy, the survey expects India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 6.4% in 2025-26, slightly lower than the RBI's official forecast of 6.5%. In FY27, the figure is expected to rise to 6.7%. The panelists foresee GDP growth ranging between 6.0% to 7.0% in 2025-26, and between 6.1% to 7.7% in 2026-27. The highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth in the 6.0% – 6.9% range for 2025-26 and 6.5% – 6.9% range for 2026-27. On the expenditure front, the real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025-26 and 6.9% in 2026-27. Meanwhile, real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to grow by 6.8% and 7.2% over the two years, respectively. Coming to inflation, the annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) based rate is estimated at 3.1% for 2025-26, increasing to 4.4% in 2026-27. The survey further showed that in the second quarter of FY26, CPI inflation, not including food and beverages, pan, tobacco, intoxicants and fuel and light, will remain at 4.4%. Furthermore, in the following quarters, it will fall in the range of 4.3%-4.5% in the following quarters. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays .
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's merchandise imports to grow twice than exports in current financial year: RBI Survey
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India's merchandise imports to grow by 2 times more than exports in the current financial year, highlighted a latest survey by RBI conducted the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators, Results of the 95th Round, released on survey findings showed that merchandise imports are likely to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2025-26, which is more than double the growth of merchandise stated "Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, during 2025-26"In the next year, 2026-27, the survey noted that the merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.9 per cent and imports by 6.0 per cent, all in US dollar to this trade pattern, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to stand at 0.8 per cent of GDP at current market prices for 2025-26. For the year 2026-27, CAD is projected to rise slightly to 0.9 per the overall economy, the survey showed that India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2025-26 and further by 6.7 per cent in 2026-27. This is below than the RBI's forecast of 6.5 per panelists forecast GDP growth to be in the range of 6.0 to 7.0 per cent for 2025-26 and 6.1 to 7.7 per cent for 2026-27. The highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth in the range of 6.0-6.9 per cent for 2025-26 and 6.5-6.9 per cent for terms of expenditure, real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025-26 and 6.9 per cent in 2026-27. Similarly, real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in these two years, the inflation front, annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected at 3.1 per cent in 2025-26 and rise to 4.4 per cent in per survey, CPI inflation excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco, intoxicants, and fuel and light, is expected at 4.4 per cent in Q2 of 2025-26. It is projected to stay between 4.3-4.5 per cent in the following quarters.
