RBI survey: Merchandise imports to grow twice more than exports in FY26; check details
Reserve Bank of India
's latest economic outlook.
The central bank released the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators (95th Round) on Wednesday.
According to the apex bank's findings, 'Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively, during 2025-26.'
Looking ahead to 2026-27, merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.9%, while imports are expected to climb by 6.0%.
This widening gap in trade could weigh on India's external balance, ANI cited the report. The current account deficit (CAD) is projected at 0.8% of GDP at current market prices for 2025-26, rising slightly to 0.9% in 2026-27.
On the broader economy, the survey expects India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 6.4% in 2025-26, slightly lower than the RBI's official forecast of 6.5%. In FY27, the figure is expected to rise to 6.7%.
The panelists foresee GDP growth ranging between 6.0% to 7.0% in 2025-26, and between 6.1% to 7.7% in 2026-27. The highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth in the 6.0% – 6.9% range for 2025-26 and 6.5% – 6.9% range for 2026-27.
On the expenditure front, the real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to rise by 6.5% in 2025-26 and 6.9% in 2026-27. Meanwhile, real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to grow by 6.8% and 7.2% over the two years, respectively.
Coming to inflation, the annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) based rate is estimated at 3.1% for 2025-26, increasing to 4.4% in 2026-27.
The survey further showed that in the second quarter of FY26, CPI inflation, not including food and beverages, pan, tobacco, intoxicants and fuel and light, will remain at 4.4%. Furthermore, in the following quarters, it will fall in the range of 4.3%-4.5% in the following quarters.
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