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Business Standard
27-05-2025
- Climate
- Business Standard
Explained: What is the new Bharat Forecast System and how does it work?
The Ministry of Science on Monday launched the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), saying it is the world's most precise indigenously developed weather forecasting model. The system has become operational after three years of testing since its launch in 2022. Let's understand in detail what the Bharat Forecast System is and how it is more accurate, fast, and effective than the previously used models. What is Bharat Forecast System? Bharat Forecast System, developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, is a weather forecasting and monitoring system which uses high-end computer systems and satellite imagery. The use of the supercomputer 'Arka' makes it possible to deliver the results at the highest possible speed, which is faster than any other forecasting system in the world. The supercomputer has a capacity of 11.77 petaflops and a storage capacity of 33 petabytes. According to Parthasarathy Mukhopadhayay, one of the researchers involved in the project, the data from a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars (a system of high-resolution weather monitoring stations) from across the country will be used to run the BFS model. With this, BFS is now able to deliver more localised forecasts and nowcasts (forecasts of present weather conditions immediately). The number of Doppler radars will gradually rise to 100, enabling the weather office to issue nowcasts—short-term weather forecasts for the next two hours—nationwide. What makes BFS better than any other forecast system? The modified BFS system came up with a lot of new upgrades in comparison to the previously used forecast systems. However, BFS's speed, accuracy, and much more localised predictions make it the best forecasting system in the world. Speed: Suryachandra Rao, Director of IITM-Pune, stated that earlier weather forecasting models required around 12 to 14 hours to produce predictions for a specific area. However, with advancements in high-performance computing systems under the central government's 'Mission Mausam', forecasts can now be made within four to six hours. Accuracy: The use of high-end computers not only improved its speed but also accuracy. "This significant milestone represents a major leap in India's self-reliance in meteorological sciences, enabling more accurate and granular weather forecasts up to panchayat level for disaster risk reduction, agriculture, water resource management, and public safety," a senior official from the Earth Sciences Ministry said, as quoted by The Economic Times. Furthermore, the system has demonstrated a 30 per cent improvement in accuracy for extreme rainfall events, which are frequent during the monsoon season, compared to existing models. It has also shown significant enhancement in predicting cyclone paths. Localised predictions: Previously operated weather forecasting systems used to forecast weather patterns over a 12 km grid. However, in a much more localised way, now BFS is able to predict weather conditions in a 6 km grid. This means the current model can forecast weather systems down to the village and panchayat level, with an improvement of nearly 64 per cent in prediction accuracy. Weather forecast for all Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, stated the launch is part of the Centre's initiative to make weather forecasts more accessible and beneficial for everyone. With the successful integration of this new system, India has become the only country to operate a global forecast system with such high resolution in real time. The system was officially handed over to the IMD by Minister of Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh, on Monday.
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First Post
26-05-2025
- Climate
- First Post
What is Bharat Forecasting System for more apt weather predictions?
The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched the indigenous Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) in Delhi on Monday (May 26). Developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the model aims to make weather forecasts more localised and accurate. Being the only numerical weather prediction system in the world with a high resolution of six km, it will be operated by the IMD read more People make their way through a waterlogged road near Gandhi Market at Matunga after heavy rains, in Mumbai, May 26, 2025. PTI India has unveiled an indigenous weather forecasting system that will make the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecasts more accurate. The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched the new Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) in Delhi on Monday (May 26). The system has been developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and will be operated by the IMD from this monsoon season. Its unveiling comes as India has witnessed an early onset of monsoon rains , with heavy showers battering Kerala and Mumbai. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Let's take a closer look. What is BFS? BFS is a made-in-India weather forecasting system that aims to make the weather department's predictions more localised and accurate. Touted as the world's highest-resolution weather model, BFS will provide forecasts with a 6 km resolution. This makes it the only numerical weather prediction system in the world deployed at such a high resolution. Speaking to ThePrint, IITM director Suryachandra Rao said, 'The new BFS has a resolution of 6 km at the tropics and around 7-8 km resolution at the poles. The current range of our system is only around 12 km. This will remarkably improve our forecasting accuracy.' Similar systems operated by the European, British and American weather offices have a range between 9 km and 14 km. Union Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh took to X to hail the 'first-of-its-kind, state-of-the-art' weather prediction system. He said BFS will 'boost monsoon tracking, aviation, cyclone and disaster management, agriculture, waterways, defence, flood forecasting, and also support key ministries. Its exclusive highlight is that it focuses and caters to India's panchayat level requirements.' Launched the first-of-its-kind, state-of-the-art indigenous 'Bharat Forecast System' #BharatFS by 'India Meteorological Department' under the Ministry of Earth Sciences #MoES. A major leap in IMD's capabilities, this breakthrough places India among global leaders in weather… — Dr Jitendra Singh (@DrJitendraSingh) May 26, 2025 STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD IITM scientists behind BFS told ThePrint that, in a first, a version of the global forecasting system (GFS) model has been developed for short and medium-range weather prediction over India using the triangular-cubic-octahedral (Tco) grid. This grid structure, used in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling, provides a higher resolution over the tropics at a range of about 6.5 km. 'The tropical region is a chaotic region for weather. The change in weather patterns is unpredictable and higher resolution models are required to capture the spatial changes,' M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, as per PTI. 'Earlier, we used to issue one forecast for four villages. The BFS will enable us to issue separate forecasts for each of the four villages,' he said. How BFS works Developing the Bharat Forecasting System was possible after the installation of the new supercomputer Arka at the IITM campus last year, with a capacity of 11.77 petaflops (a unit to measure computer processing speed) and storage capacity of 33 petabytes – a petabyte is equivalent to 1,000 terabytes (TB). 'The previous supercomputer 'Pratyush' used to take up to 10 hours to run the forecasting model. Arka performs the same data-crunching within four hours,' Mukhopadhyay told PTI. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD MoES secretary Ravichandran said the data from 40 Doppler weather radars from across the country will be used to operate the weather forecasting model, enabling the weather department to issue more localised forecasts, and nowcasts or weather forecasts for the next two hours. The plan is to increase the number of these Doppler radars to 100, which would allow for IMD to issue nowcasts across the country. Why it matters India's BFS comes at a time when the weather has become more uncertain, with extreme events becoming more common. As climate change affects India and the rest of the world, the new weather forecasting system will improve the forecasts by 30 per cent. Pedestrians wade through an inundated road amid rains, in Mumbai, May 26, 2025. PTI BFS, which had been on a trial run since 2022, has shown a 30 per cent improvement in the prediction of extreme rainfall events and a 64 per cent improvement in forecasts for core monsoon regions, ThePrint reported. It also displayed improved results for cyclone tracks and intensity forecasts. 'This is a pretty big improvement, but we will not stop at that. Our efforts will be to continuously better our capabilities,' Ravichandran said. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD With inputs from agencies
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Business Standard
26-05-2025
- Climate
- Business Standard
Centre unveils Bharat Forecast System with improved 6 km-grid accuracy
The Ministry of Earth Sciences on Monday launched the world's most precise indigenously-developed weather forecasting model that can accurately predict climatic conditions in a 6-kilometre grid, a marked improvement from the existing systems that forecast weather patterns over a 12-kilometre grid. The current model called the 'Bharat Forecast System' can predict weather systems right up to the village and panchayat level, with almost 64 per cent improvement in prediction skills. For extreme rainfall events, which are a common occurrence during monsoon months, the Bharat Forecast System has shown a 30 per cent improvement in accuracy as compared to the existing models. It has also shown marked improvement in prediction of cyclone paths. The model that has been developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune will now be used for making both short-range and long-range forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) over a smaller area as compared to the present systems. Earlier, IMD used models that predicted weather systems and changes accurately over a 23-kilometre grid, which was brought down to 12 kilometres few years back and has now been further narrowed down to 6 kilometres using high-end computer systems and satellite imagery. The new system was handed over to IMD by Minister for Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh. Dr Suryachandra Rao, director, IITM-Pune, in his address said that the earlier weather forecasting models used to take around 12-14 hours to make accurate weather predictions over a particular area, but with the advancement in high performance computing systems as part of the central government's 'Mission Mausam', we have now capabilities to predict weather accurately in 4-6 hours. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, which will use the indigenously- developed model to make its operational weather forecast, said that launch is part of the Centre's efforts to make weather predictions accessible and useful for all. With the successful integration of the new system into the IMD, India has now become the only country operating a global forecast system at such a high resolution for real time.
Hindustan Times
26-05-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
High-resolution Bharat Forecast System launched to address extreme weather events
The earth sciences ministry on Monday launched a high-resolution (6 km) numerical global model—Bharat Forecast System—for operational forecasts up to the panchayat level, which is expected to help address extreme rainfall events, among other things. The system was inaugurated as India faces extreme weather events. A series of intense dust storms and thunderstorms this month left at least 12 people dead due to house collapses, electrocution, and uprooted trees in Delhi and the National Capital Region alone. The storms disrupted flight operations and led to waterlogging, power cuts, and uprooted trees, signalling inadequate infrastructure and a lack of preparations ahead of the monsoon. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), an autonomous body of the earth sciences ministry, indigenously developed the Bharat Forecast System, which was in use on an experimental basis since 2022 and showed a 30% improvement in extreme rainfall forecasts. The rain forecast in the core monsoon region improved by 64%. Cyclone track and intensity forecasts also improved, IITM scientists said. The previous system took 12-13 hours to run models. Bharat Forecast System has cut down the time to around 3-4 hours. 'The [Bharat Forecast System] resolution is 6km at the tropics and 7-8 km resolution at the poles,' said IITM director Suryachandra Rao. India Meteorological Department director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the new model can also help strategic sectors, including defence, with rescue operations. India launched its first numerical model in 1994, followed by the Climatology and Persistence Model in 1999. 'Thereafter, we were using global models. This [Bharat Forecast System] is also a superfine global model developed by India,' Mohapatra said. Numerical weather models are computer models that use mathematical equations to simulate and predict weather patterns on a global scale. The simulation is done based on weather observations.
