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Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Semiconductor ETF options show caution ahead of Nvidia results
Traders in the options markets are bracing for industry-wide volatility when AI-chipmaker Nvidia reports results on Wednesday, with defensive options contracts on a major semiconductor ETF drawing heavy trading. For VanEck Semiconductor ETF, the largest semiconductors ETF with some $22 billion in assets, about 2.4 put options changed hands daily over the last 10 days against every call option traded, the most defensive the trading has been in about 10 months, according to Trade Alert data. Call options convey the right to buy shares at a fixed price in the future while put contracts offer the right to sell the shares at a given price. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. "The put buying in SMH ahead of Nvidia's earnings reflects growing concern about potential volatility for the entire sector following the report," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group. On Tuesday, some 105,000 put options changed hands against about 16,000 call options, by 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT), Trade Alert data showed. Live Events In one notable trade, one investor last week bought 50,000 put options in SMH that would guard against the ETF's shares slipping about 10%, to below $220, by the end of May. Discover the stories of your interest Blockchain 5 Stories Cyber-safety 7 Stories Fintech 9 Stories E-comm 9 Stories ML 8 Stories Edtech 6 Stories Nvidia accounts for about a fifth of the semi ETF's assets but due to its dominance in the artificial intelligence market, the chipmaker's influence goes beyond its weight in the fund, analysts said. While investors have been focused on defensive plays in the SMH ETF, options action on Nvidia itself was more mixed, Murphy said. Murphy said investors were selling options to take advantage of heightened volatility expectations around the chipmaker's earnings, meaning they were betting the reaction to the chipmaker's results will not be overly severe. "It's been hedging in SMH while in NVDA they're tactically monetizing elevated premiums ahead of earnings," he said. Susquehanna makes markets in the securities of Nvidia. Interactive Brokers' list of the 25 most active securities by client orders showed Nvidia ranked second, underlining the heightened investor interest in the results. Still, the stock was only one of two names for which investors were net sellers. "That likely reflects some caution ahead of earnings after a solid run," Steve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers' chief strategist, said in a note. Nvidia will be the last of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap tech and growth companies to report results for this period. Their stocks have been mixed in 2025 after leading the market higher as a group in the last two years. For the year, Nvidia shares are up about 0.7%, while SMH shares are up about 1.2%.
Zawya
11-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Wall Street's week of whiplash brought fear, relief and caution
NEW YORK - Wall Street traders and investors have been sent to the brink over the past week by President Donald Trump's tariff policy, scrambling to figure out strategies and calming clients as trillions were wiped off stock market values. A massive relief rally, however, comes with a caution sign. Since announcing sweeping tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 has done a near round-trip of historic proportions. The benchmark index extended its slide from its February high to the brink of confirming a bear market, as investors priced in dire scenarios for the economy after Trump announced tariffs that would raise U.S. trade barriers to the highest levels in over a century. The Cboe Volatility index, Wall Street's "fear gauge," soared earlier this week to its highest closing level since the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. Then, in a stunning reversal on Wednesday, Trump said he would temporarily lower the hefty duties on dozens of countries while further ramping up pressure on China, prompting a massive relief rally, sending the S&P 500 up nearly 10%, its biggest one-day jump since October 2008. The rapid policy changes translated into non-stop action, stress and drama on trading floors and investment houses. "It's been a quite a wild ride," said Joe Tigay, portfolio manager for Rational Equity Armor Fund, who said it brought back memories of trading through massive swings during the pandemic. "Personally, honestly, this is what I live for." The rapid pace of unfolding events in recent days prompted a deft juggling of priorities, including client calls, trading and making sense of markets, said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group, as the market drama surpassed the wild trading seen during the COVID-induced market crash of March 2020. "This is more headline driven than what we saw in COVID," Murphy said. "There's just not enough time because you're going from one thing to the next." Clients wanted frequent updates as market losses stacked up, advisers said. "We reached out to as many clients as possible via a client letter and phone calls," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston. "Some of my nervous clients were comforted when they learned that as the market was declining I had been investing some of my own money." But while some have embraced the volatility, others caution that the market remains fragile, U.S. policy remains unpredictable and that the U.S. is not out of the woods. "It's definitely good news because it shows that the negotiations are in good enough shape that they think that they've accomplished what they needed to by this initial conversation," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist, Nationwide Investment Management Group in Philadelphia. "But I want to put a pretty big caveat out there because 8% rallies in 20 minutes in the Nasdaq aren't a heck of a lot healthier than 8% declines." TRUMP PUT BACK ON? After a week of concern that Trump was no longer worried about stock market losses, some investors speculated that markets had prompted Trump's decision, including a rout in the bond market that came to a head on Wednesday and led to a massive spike in Treasury yields. Investors had previously relied on the theory of a Trump put, a reference to investor belief that Trump would reverse policy if markets ran into trouble. "I think this is a reminder that Trump does not want a bear market in stocks, and he does not want a recession, so this is forcing a rethink of the approach," said Talley Leger, chief market strategist, The Wealth Consulting Group. But many investors said persistent uncertainty around tariff policy could still have broad fallout, impeding the ability of companies to plan and influencing consumer behavior. "They hit the pause button and the market rejoiced," said Alex Morris, chief investment officer at F/m Investments. "But of course, there is no promise that we'll manage to solve anything in 90 days." Deutsche Bank said in a note that while the Trump put appears back on, the policy back-and-forth will cause lasting damage. "Even if the tariffs are permanently suspended, damage has been done to the economy via a permanent sense of unpredictability in policy." Market volatility on Wednesday had been trained on the bond market, which saw a bruising selloff in U.S. Treasuries, with some market participants saying funds had been selling such liquid assets such as Treasuries to meet margin calls. "There's definitely sensitivity to what happens in the Treasury market," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. "If something breaks in the Treasury market, that could be very, very bad." Trump said on Wednesday the bond market had recovered well after investors became queasy about it in reaction to his tariffs. "The bond market now is beautiful," he told reporters. The White House said Trump's move to hike tariffs on China and pause tariffs on other countries came after receiving "good-faith commitments from a majority of our trading partners willing to strike favorable trade deals." "The only interest guiding President Trump's decision making is the best interest of the American people," White House spokesman Kush Desai said. "The Trump administration remains committed to using every tool at our disposal to address the national emergency posed by chronic trade deficits – including both tariffs and negotiations.' 'STRESSFUL WEEK' Some investors felt the relentless string of bad news for markets and wild gyrations were impossible to maintain. "We had assumed that some form of capitulation would be forthcoming," said Christopher Hodge, chief economist for the US at Natixis in New York, citing the financial carnage and expectation of economic pain. Since Trump unveiled his tariff plan on April 2, the stock market has undergone some record-breaking gyrations. It notched an 8.1% intra-day price swing in the benchmark S&P 500 index on Monday, while Tuesday's market saw one of the biggest reversals for the benchmark index in at least the last 50 years. Wednesday's market about-face was even more stark, with the day's 10.7% range stacking up as the fifth largest in at least the last fifty years. Bolvin said this had been "a stressful week." "When my 3 year old woke up and asked if the market was down, I knew we were close to the bottom," Bolvin said. (Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews, Chuck Mikolajczak, Carolina Mandl, Davide Barbuscia; editing by Megan Davies and Deepa Babington)
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-Wall Street's week of whiplash brought fear, relief and caution
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee and Saeed Azhar NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders and investors have been sent to the brink over the past week by President Donald Trump's tariff policy, scrambling to figure out strategies and calming clients as trillions were wiped off stock market values. A massive relief rally, however, comes with a caution sign. Since announcing sweeping tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 has done a near round-trip of historic proportions. The benchmark index extended its slide from its February high to the brink of confirming a bear market, as investors priced in dire scenarios for the economy after Trump announced tariffs that would raise U.S. trade barriers to the highest levels in over a century. The Cboe Volatility index, Wall Street's "fear gauge," soared earlier this week to its highest closing level since the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. Then, in a stunning reversal on Wednesday, Trump said he would temporarily lower the hefty duties on dozens of countries while further ramping up pressure on China, prompting a massive relief rally, sending the S&P 500 up nearly 10%, its biggest one-day jump since October 2008. The rapid policy changes translated into non-stop action, stress and drama on trading floors and investment houses. "It's been a quite a wild ride," said Joe Tigay, portfolio manager for Rational Equity Armor Fund, who said it brought back memories of trading through massive swings during the pandemic. "Personally, honestly, this is what I live for." The rapid pace of unfolding events in recent days prompted a deft juggling of priorities, including client calls, trading and making sense of markets, said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group, as the market drama surpassed the wild trading seen during the COVID-induced market crash of March 2020. "This is more headline driven than what we saw in COVID," Murphy said. "There's just not enough time because you're going from one thing to the next." Clients wanted frequent updates as market losses stacked up, advisers said. "We reached out to as many clients as possible via a client letter and phone calls," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston. "Some of my nervous clients were comforted when they learned that as the market was declining I had been investing some of my own money." But while some have embraced the volatility, others caution that the market remains fragile, U.S. policy remains unpredictable and that the U.S. is not out of the woods. "It's definitely good news because it shows that the negotiations are in good enough shape that they think that they've accomplished what they needed to by this initial conversation," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist, Nationwide Investment Management Group in Philadelphia. "But I want to put a pretty big caveat out there because 8% rallies in 20 minutes in the Nasdaq aren't a heck of a lot healthier than 8% declines." TRUMP PUT BACK ON? After a week of concern that Trump was no longer worried about stock market losses, some investors speculated that markets had prompted Trump's decision, including a rout in the bond market that came to a head on Wednesday and led to a massive spike in Treasury yields. Investors had previously relied on the theory of a Trump put, a reference to investor belief that Trump would reverse policy if markets ran into trouble. "I think this is a reminder that Trump does not want a bear market in stocks, and he does not want a recession, so this is forcing a rethink of the approach," said Talley Leger, chief market strategist, The Wealth Consulting Group. But many investors said persistent uncertainty around tariff policy could still have broad fallout, impeding the ability of companies to plan and influencing consumer behavior. "They hit the pause button and the market rejoiced," said Alex Morris, chief investment officer at F/m Investments. "But of course, there is no promise that we'll manage to solve anything in 90 days." Deutsche Bank said in a note that while the Trump put appears back on, the policy back-and-forth will cause lasting damage. "Even if the tariffs are permanently suspended, damage has been done to the economy via a permanent sense of unpredictability in policy." Market volatility on Wednesday had been trained on the bond market, which saw a bruising selloff in U.S. Treasuries, with some market participants saying funds had been selling such liquid assets such as Treasuries to meet margin calls. "There's definitely sensitivity to what happens in the Treasury market," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. "If something breaks in the Treasury market, that could be very, very bad." Trump said on Wednesday the bond market had recovered well after investors became queasy about it in reaction to his tariffs. "The bond market now is beautiful," he told reporters. The White House said Trump's move to hike tariffs on China and pause tariffs on other countries came after receiving "good-faith commitments from a majority of our trading partners willing to strike favorable trade deals." "The only interest guiding President Trump's decision making is the best interest of the American people," White House spokesman Kush Desai said. "The Trump administration remains committed to using every tool at our disposal to address the national emergency posed by chronic trade deficits – including both tariffs and negotiations.' 'STRESSFUL WEEK' Some investors felt the relentless string of bad news for markets and wild gyrations were impossible to maintain. "We had assumed that some form of capitulation would be forthcoming," said Christopher Hodge, chief economist for the US at Natixis in New York, citing the financial carnage and expectation of economic pain. Since Trump unveiled his tariff plan on April 2, the stock market has undergone some record-breaking gyrations. It notched an 8.1% intra-day price swing in the benchmark S&P 500 index on Monday, while Tuesday's market saw one of the biggest reversals for the benchmark index in at least the last 50 years. Wednesday's market about-face was even more stark, with the day's 10.7% range stacking up as the fifth largest in at least the last fifty years. Bolvin said this had been "a stressful week." "When my 3 year old woke up and asked if the market was down, I knew we were close to the bottom," Bolvin said. (Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews, Chuck Mikolajczak, Carolina Mandl, Davide Barbuscia; editing by Megan Davies and Deepa Babington)
Reuters
10-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Wall Street's week of whiplash brought fear, relief and caution
Summary Trump's flip-flop on tariffs stokes dramatic market volatility Market turmoil reminder of scenes from pandemic trading Analysts warn risks remain despite short-term relief for markets NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - Wall Street traders and investors have been sent to the brink over the past week by President Donald Trump's tariff policy, scrambling to figure out strategies and calming clients as trillions were wiped off stock market values. A massive relief rally, however, comes with a caution sign. here. Since announcing sweeping tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 has done a near round-trip of historic proportions. The benchmark index extended its slide from its February high to the brink of confirming a bear market, as investors priced in dire scenarios for the economy after Trump announced tariffs that would raise U.S. trade barriers to the highest levels in over a century. The Cboe Volatility index (.VIX), opens new tab, Wall Street's "fear gauge," soared earlier this week to its highest closing level since the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. Then, in a stunning reversal on Wednesday, Trump said he would temporarily lower the hefty duties on dozens of countries while further ramping up pressure on China, prompting a massive relief rally, sending the S&P 500 up nearly 10%, its biggest one-day jump since October 2008. The rapid policy changes translated into non-stop action, stress and drama on trading floors and investment houses. "It's been a quite a wild ride," said Joe Tigay, portfolio manager for Rational Equity Armor Fund, who said it brought back memories of trading through massive swings during the pandemic. "Personally, honestly, this is what I live for." The rapid pace of unfolding events in recent days prompted a deft juggling of priorities, including client calls, trading and making sense of markets, said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group, as the market drama surpassed the wild trading seen during the COVID-induced market crash of March 2020. "This is more headline driven than what we saw in COVID," Murphy said. "There's just not enough time because you're going from one thing to the next." Clients wanted frequent updates as market losses stacked up, advisers said. "We reached out to as many clients as possible via a client letter and phone calls," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston. "Some of my nervous clients were comforted when they learned that as the market was declining I had been investing some of my own money." But while some have embraced the volatility, others caution that the market remains fragile, U.S. policy remains unpredictable and that the U.S. is not out of the woods. "It's definitely good news because it shows that the negotiations are in good enough shape that they think that they've accomplished what they needed to by this initial conversation," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist, Nationwide Investment Management Group in Philadelphia. "But I want to put a pretty big caveat out there because 8% rallies in 20 minutes in the Nasdaq aren't a heck of a lot healthier than 8% declines." TRUMP PUT BACK ON? After a week of concern that Trump was no longer worried about stock market losses, some investors speculated that markets had prompted Trump's decision, including a rout in the bond market that came to a head on Wednesday and led to a massive spike in Treasury yields. Investors had previously relied on the theory of a Trump put, a reference to investor belief that Trump would reverse policy if markets ran into trouble. "I think this is a reminder that Trump does not want a bear market in stocks, and he does not want a recession, so this is forcing a rethink of the approach," said Talley Leger, chief market strategist, The Wealth Consulting Group. But many investors said persistent uncertainty around tariff policy could still have broad fallout, impeding the ability of companies to plan and influencing consumer behavior. "They hit the pause button and the market rejoiced," said Alex Morris, chief investment officer at F/m Investments. "But of course, there is no promise that we'll manage to solve anything in 90 days." Deutsche Bank said in a note that while the Trump put appears back on, the policy back-and-forth will cause lasting damage. "Even if the tariffs are permanently suspended, damage has been done to the economy via a permanent sense of unpredictability in policy." Market volatility on Wednesday had been trained on the bond market, which saw a bruising selloff in U.S. Treasuries, with some market participants saying funds had been selling such liquid assets such as Treasuries to meet margin calls. "There's definitely sensitivity to what happens in the Treasury market," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. "If something breaks in the Treasury market, that could be very, very bad." Trump said on Wednesday the bond market had recovered well after investors became queasy about it in reaction to his tariffs. "The bond market now is beautiful," he told reporters. The White House said Trump's move to hike tariffs on China and pause tariffs on other countries came after receiving "good-faith commitments from a majority of our trading partners willing to strike favorable trade deals." "The only interest guiding President Trump's decision making is the best interest of the American people," White House spokesman Kush Desai said. "The Trump administration remains committed to using every tool at our disposal to address the national emergency posed by chronic trade deficits – including both tariffs and negotiations.' 'STRESSFUL WEEK' Some investors felt the relentless string of bad news for markets and wild gyrations were impossible to maintain. "We had assumed that some form of capitulation would be forthcoming," said Christopher Hodge, chief economist for the US at Natixis in New York, citing the financial carnage and expectation of economic pain. Since Trump unveiled his tariff plan on April 2, the stock market has undergone some record-breaking gyrations. It notched an 8.1% intra-day price swing in the benchmark S&P 500 index on Monday, while Tuesday's market saw one of the biggest reversals for the benchmark index in at least the last 50 years. Wednesday's market about-face was even more stark, with the day's 10.7% range stacking up as the fifth largest in at least the last fifty years. Bolvin said this had been "a stressful week." "When my 3 year old woke up and asked if the market was down, I knew we were close to the bottom," Bolvin said.
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Truckload earnings estimates cut as Q1 draws to a close
Susquehanna Financial Group cut estimates for trucking and logistics companies heading into the first-quarter earnings season. Uncertainty around tariffs and retailers building inventories in response has turned 'macroenthusiasm into pessimism,' analyst Bascome Majors told clients in a Wednesday report. 'We're cautious into spring as the truckload cycle likely gets worse before it gets better,' Majors said, noting that 'pending tariffs have caused a broad 'wait & see' approach for retail and industrial shippers alike.' He said key industry data points are closing the quarter 'with a whimper into the critical spring bid season.' Majors noted shippers have their own margin concerns as they navigate a changing trade landscape, which he believes will 'weigh on carriers' rate/margin gains in bid season.' Retailers are still working their pricing models to determine the right balance between shielding consumers from price hikes and protecting their own gross margins. Majors selectively lowered first-quarter earnings numbers, primarily targeting TL carriers, as the seasonally strongest month of the period – March – will likely disappoint. Broader changes were made to the full year, which produced knock-on effects to 2026 estimates.'1Q is seasonally weaker, but we fear the exit rate of spot rates into the most critical months of the annual contract bid season poses some risk to annual pricing that will drive margins in 2H25 and into 1H26,' Majors said. Majors cut his Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE: KNX) earnings-per-share estimate by 16% for the first quarter, with Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR) taking a 9% haircut. Truckload carriers, including Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN), saw low-double-digit to midteen estimate cuts for full-year 2025 given the slow start to the year, with flow-through effects impacting the 2026 numbers by a similar amount. 'Reflecting a shakier cyclical backdrop for TL/intermodal/trade and contractual bid season, we're exercising more caution in 2Q toward both demand and pricing, which flows through to 2H and 2026 estimate reductions.'Across his trucking, intermodal and logistics coverage, which includes brokers, numbers sit 5% to 15% below consensus for 2025 and 5% to 25% below for 2026. (Majors has not issued quarterly previews for the less-than-truckload carriers and railroads that he follows.) Truck broker Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) is the only company for which Majors' first-quarter number sits above other Wall Street estimates. He raised the estimate by 4% given recent outperformance in the flatbed market, which accounts for 30% of Landstar's revenue. However, he quantified the near-term strength in that market as 'transitory.' He pointed to the potential for a supply shock next year as changes in trade policy will push new Class 8 tractor prices higher and as equipment prebuying is curbed as the new administration works to nix planned changes to nitrogen oxide emissions standards. 'In 2026, we could see truckload/intermodal demand grow while the class 8 fleet shrinks, fueling a stair-step lift in TL/IM price and margins after 2025's emerging disappointment.' His call for the 2025 bid season, which is based on channel checks and recent public carrier commentary signaling low-single-digit rate increases, is for contractual rate renewals to be positive. Majors downgraded multimodal provider J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) to 'neutral' on Wednesday, cutting full-year 2025 and 2026 estimates by 5% and 7%, respectively. He said recent tariff-driven import activity has been behind the 7% y/y increase in North American intermodal container volumes so far this year. He expects contractual bid season to be fruitful on major headhaul lanes off the West Coast, which could be mostly offset by softness on backhaul lanes. The call is for intermodal rates to 'exit 2025 on a slight winning streak, with more meaningful opportunity for recovery in 2026.' 'We see a challenged 2025, with the largest earnings growth % at TL carriers vs. depressed 2024 troughs, but see strong growth for 2026 coming off the 2025 bridge year as our estimates reflect a more measured improvement to demand, pricing and margins across the industry.'More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden: FedEx prepping LTL unit ahead of spinoff Yellow's 325-door California terminal fetches $55M Roadrunner adds new lanes to long-haul network The post Truckload earnings estimates cut as Q1 draws to a close appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio
