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Denmark's Economy Runs on Novo. Will the Drugmaker's Troubles Slim It Down?
Denmark's Economy Runs on Novo. Will the Drugmaker's Troubles Slim It Down?

Yahoo

time03-08-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Denmark's Economy Runs on Novo. Will the Drugmaker's Troubles Slim It Down?

(Bloomberg) -- Denmark's status as one of the few countries in Europe with an expanding economy rests in part on the success of its homegrown hero, Novo Nordisk A/S. Thanks to the pharmaceutical giant's astronomical rise, the country enjoyed growth of 3.5% last year, outpacing most nations in the region. But after a series of stumbles, Novo is struggling to retain its edge in the cutthroat US weight-loss market. The World's Data Center Capital Has Residents Surrounded An Abandoned Art-Deco Landmark in Buffalo Awaits Revival We Should All Be Biking Along the Beach Seeking Relief From Heat and Smog, Cities Follow the Wind NYC Mayor Adams Gives Bally's Bronx Casino Plan a Second Chance That, in turn, is generating concern about whether the company's troubles could lead to mass layoffs or become a drag on the broader Danish economy. Novo's market value shrunk by almost $100 billion this week after the company cut its profit outlook on Tuesday, citing intensifying competition and copycat drugs in the US. It marked the second time this year that the drugmaker pared back its earning projections. Shares plunged 23% — the steepest single-day drop on record — and its stock has continued to slide in the days since. Novo's bad news translated into an immediate financial blow to Danish households. Outside of pension savings, Danes lost 38 billion kroner ($5.8 billion) in regular stock portfolios on Tuesday alone, according to estimates by Sydbank A/S. That's the equivalent of almost 3% of total annual private consumption. 'There will be shareholders who have lost rather large amounts,' said Mikael Bak, chief executive officer of the Danish Shareholders' Association. 'It's quite conceivable that we'll see some Danish investors holding back on things like buying a new car or booking an expensive vacation.' Given Novo's size, the damage could ripple beyond the stock market. Economists have warned that a prolonged Novo slump could drag on the country's exports — a concern shared by the state's financial watchdog, which slashed its export forecast in May following a profit warning from Novo — and even influence interest rates. Moreover, since the drugmaker's production counts toward Denmark's gross domestic product, any roll-back of expectations will 'almost mechanically' impact the country's growth numbers, said Las Olsen, chief economist at Danske Bank A/S, Denmark's largest lender. 'Lower growth in Novo means lower GDP growth in Denmark, it's as simple as that,' said Olsen. A decline in drug sales did cause the Danish economy to shrink slightly in the first quarter, according to Statistics Denmark, and second-quarter GDP numbers will be released on Aug. 20. Novo is still growing, Olsen stressed, but if it were to flatline completely, Denmark would cease to be among Europe's highest growth economies. Soren Kristensen, chief economist at Sydbank, cautioned against reading too deeply into Novo's dip. Analysts predict the company's revenue and profit growth will continue through the end of the decade, and Kristensen emphasized that so long as the firm's earnings are increasing, the Danish economy will benefit. Still, he added, Novo is 'in a slightly more vulnerable position' than previously assumed. 'If things were to take a turn for the worse,' he said, 'the effects would show up in quite a few areas.' He pointed to the country's industrial production and exports as most exposed. Novo's vast output has helped drive Denmark's large surplus and bolstered the krone. That has made it necessary for the Danish central bank to maintain a lower interest rate than the European Central Bank's to defend the currency peg. Should exports take a major hit, however, Kristensen said that Denmark might need to reverse course and raise its rates. Within Denmark, a sustained Novo slowdown could also limit funding increases in scientific research, healthcare and social programs, Olsen said. That's because the Novo Nordisk Foundation, which owns a controlling stake in the company, has significantly ramped up its grantmaking in these areas on the back of soaring profits from blockbuster drugs Wegovy and Ozempic. The foundation supports the work and salaries of around 9,500 scientists. Novo's rise in recent years has fueled broader concern about Denmark becoming overly reliant on a single company. To those worried about the drugmaker's outsized role in the country, its setbacks this week evoked specters of Nokia Oyj, the Finnish telecommunications giant whose slump in the early 2000s dragged down Finland's entire economy. Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen admitted in an interview last year that officials need to keep an eye on the risks linked to Novo's dominant position, but brushed off Nokia comparisons, noting that the economy's strengths aren't concentrated in the pharmaceutical sector alone. Olsen from Danske Bank takes a similar view. He noted that Novo is still growing, while Nokia underwent a serious contraction, and argued that even if Novo were to experience a similar downturn, Denmark's economy would be better positioned to absorb the shock. For all its growth, he said, the drugmaker has a limited impact on national employment and wages — both of which remain resilient — and the Danish economy is more flexible on account of its adaptive wage structures and rules that make it easier to fire employees. Denmark also relies on large inflows of foreign labor to meet workforce needs, which can be adjusted as needed. Still, the company directly employs more than 30,000 people in Denmark. If layoffs are in the offing, as new CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar has hinted, key Novo hubs such as Kalundborg and Bagsvaerd are likely to take a hit. Outside of the agricultural industry, Novo was responsible for half of all private-sector job growth in Denmark between early 2023 and 2024, according to the state's fiscal watchdog. 'Locally, it could feel quite severe, even if it doesn't show up strongly in national figures,' Kristensen said, especially as cuts and investment reductions are likely to reverberate through Novo's network of suppliers and contractors. Nowhere in Denmark have Novo's rising fortunes registered more strongly than in Kalundborg, home to the company's main production facilities. As corporate tax revenue from Novo has surged more than tenfold since 2011, unemployment has dropped to record lows and the town has experienced a boom. Novo's factory expansions and rapid hiring have bolstered local businesses, universities and research programs have flocked to the town, and investment is flowing into housing and infrastructure. 'What's been the impact of the massive growth in Novo Nordisk?' Olsen said. 'It's delivered GDP growth, shareholder returns, extra tax revenue and a current account surplus. So if the situation were to go the other way, all of those effects would naturally reverse.' How Podcast-Obsessed Tech Investors Made a New Media Industry Everyone Loves to Hate Wind Power. Scotland Found a Way to Make It Pay Off Russia Builds a New Web Around Kremlin's Handpicked Super App Cage-Free Eggs Are Booming in the US, Despite Cost and Trump's Efforts What's Really Behind Those Rosy GDP Numbers? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio

European renewable energy companies' shares rise after revised US senate bill
European renewable energy companies' shares rise after revised US senate bill

Time of India

time02-07-2025

  • Business
  • Time of India

European renewable energy companies' shares rise after revised US senate bill

Shares in European renewable energy companies rose on Wednesday after the U.S. Senate passed on Tuesday a revised budget bill that was more positive for the wind industry compared to an earlier version. "Last-minute changes provide significantly better conditions for the wind industry compared to the previous draft," Sydbank analysts say in a research note. Shares of Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas were up around 9per cent at 0745 GMT, while its German peer Nordex rose some 3 per cent. Danish offshore wind developer Orsted and Portuguese renewable energy firm EDP ​​Renovaveis were up between around 3per cent and 4 per cent. German utility RWE, which is also the world's second-largest developer of offshore wind farms, inched about 1per cent higher. German solar power parts supplier SMA Solar jumped about 9per cent to its highest price since March.

Forex, stocks lower after US attacks on Iran boost uncertainty, oil supply risks
Forex, stocks lower after US attacks on Iran boost uncertainty, oil supply risks

New Straits Times

time23-06-2025

  • Business
  • New Straits Times

Forex, stocks lower after US attacks on Iran boost uncertainty, oil supply risks

NEW YORK: Emerging market stocks and currencies were trading near a two-week low on Monday, after US attacks on Iran intensified geopolitical uncertainty and dampened risk appetite. The US attacked nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend, drawing retaliatory threats from Iran. Stock markets across the Middle East were mixed, with Israeli stocks down 0.7 per cent, still hovering around record highs. The index was set to snap a six-session winning streak. Stocks in Turkey lost 0.6 per cent, while in Saudi Arabia , they were were one per cent higher. International bonds in Israel were slightly higher to the dollar, while ones in Saudi Arabia were marginally lower. Turkey's lira was at its lowest since March 19, set for its third session of declines. Israel's shekel strengthened 0.4 per cent. Investors looked to dump risk assets amid the elevated uncertainty and favoured the US dollar, which was up 0.3 per cent, pressuring most emerging market currencies. A report said Iran's parliament had approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, an important corridor for oil transportation, but the closure awaits approval from the top security body. "Closing the Strait is the last option that Iran would resort to as it would certainly provoke a strong US military response, and also because its domestic economy relies on it," said Minna Kuusisto, chief analyst at Danske Bank. Investors have been worried about the impact of a potential Hormuz closure on oil prices, which soared to a five-month high on Monday, and its impact on inflation. Analysts at Sydbank estimated that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be the biggest shock to energy markets in more than 50 years and would significantly increase the headwinds in the financial markets. In emerging Europe, most currencies were lower against the euro. The Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty were down 0.3 per cent each. Regional bourses also slipped, in line with global stocks, with those in Poland and Romania losing 0.9 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively. South Africa's rand depreciated 0.3 per cent against the greenback, while stocks gained 0.5 per cent. Tech firm Naspers contributed with a 2.5 per cent gain after posting a 59.4 per cent jump in its full-year core headline earnings. MSCI's index tracking global EM equities was down 0.7 per cent, as heavyweight Asian stocks lost ground, while the currencies index was down 0.4 per cent. Elsewhere, Thailand's baht was down about 0.8 per cent. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Sunday that all coalition partners had pledged support for her government, days after facing calls to step down.

Sydbank A/S share buyback programme: transactions in week 24
Sydbank A/S share buyback programme: transactions in week 24

Yahoo

time16-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Sydbank A/S share buyback programme: transactions in week 24

Company Announcement No 27/2025 Peberlyk 46200 AabenraaDenmarkTel +45 74 37 37 37Fax +45 74 37 35 36Sydbank A/SCVR No DK 12626509, 16 June 2025 Dear Sirs Sydbank A/S share buyback programme: transactions in week 24On 26 February 2025 Sydbank A/S announced a share buyback programme of DKK 1,350m. The share buyback programme commenced on 3 March 2025 and will be completed by 31 January 2026. The purpose of the share buyback programme is to reduce the share capital of Sydbank A/S and the programme is executed in compliance with the provisions of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/1052 of 8 March 2016, collectively referred to as the Safe Harbour rules. The following transactions have been made under the share buyback programme: Number of shares VWAP Gross value (DKK) Accumulated, most recent Announcement 983,000 413,934,050.00 09 June 2025 (public holiday)10 June 202511 June 202512 June 202513 June 2025 -12,00012,00011,00011,000 -444.43445.49448.37448.54 -5,333,160.005,345,880.004,932,070.004,933,940.00 Total over week 24 46,000 20,545,050.00 Total accumulated during theshare buyback programme 1,029,000 434,479,100.00 All transactions were made under ISIN DK 0010311471 and effected by Danske Bank A/S on behalf of Sydbank A/S. Further information about the transactions, cf Article 5 of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council on market abuse and Commission delegated regulation, is available in the the above transactions, Sydbank A/S holds a total of 1,030,375 own shares, equal to 2.01% of the Bank's share capital. Yours sincerely Mark Luscombe Jørn Adam MøllerCEO Deputy Group Chief Executive Attachment SM 27 UK incl. encSign in to access your portfolio

Where can equity investors hide as Israel and Iran take aim at each other?
Where can equity investors hide as Israel and Iran take aim at each other?

CNBC

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Where can equity investors hide as Israel and Iran take aim at each other?

As equity markets broadly declined after Israel and Iran took aim at each other – some sectors and stocks are bucking the trend. The attack, which reportedly killed senior Iranian military and scientific figures, prompted an immediate flight to safety in financial markets. Brent crude , the international oil benchmark, jumped 7% to $78.50 a barrel, its highest level since April. The move rippled across sectors, punishing airlines while rewarding oil tanker owners on bets of imminent supply disruptions. The market turmoil reflects uncertainty over whether Iran will retaliate in a way that further escalates the conflict. Oil and shipping "The increased likelihood of an extended regional conflict means that the market will price in a greater risk to supply," wrote Kristoffer Barth Skeie, an equity research analyst at Arctic Securities, explaining an 8.5% surge in the shares of U.S.-listed oil tanker firm Frontline , the most o f Stoxx Europe 600 index companies. Skeie noted that oil companies and traders will rush to move cargoes out of the region as quickly as possible, shifting pricing power to tanker owners as fewer ships will be willing to enter a potential war zone. "However, the tanker market's standard practice of giving the charterer a few days leeway before confirming a fixture means that the initial reaction may be overdone," Skeie said. If Iran's oil exports of 1.5 million barrels per day — which are currently transported by a sanctioned fleet — came under pressure and were offset by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations, then companies such as Frontline would benefit further, Skeie said. "So the dynamic here is positive for the compliant market," he told CNBC. Shares of Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk also climbed 4.5%, with analysts at Sydbank noting that fears of disruptions to the Suez Canal could keep global freight rates elevated. "Only A.P. Moller-Maersk's earnings will be seriously affected by high fuel prices, but if the consequence of more tensions in the Middle East is that sailing through the Suez Canal is postponed, it could keep freight rates higher than otherwise," said Jacob Pedersen, head of equity research at Sydbank, according to a Danish to English translation by Google. Shipping firms rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the bottom of Africa, as Iran-allied Houthi rebels attacked naval activity in the Red Sea, shutting off access to the much shorter route through the Suez Canal. That pushed up shipping prices temporarily in 2024. Wind and pharmaceuticals More broadly, the Danish stock market is also "resilient" to rising oil prices, according to Pedersen. "The high proportion of oil price-unaffected pharmaceutical companies and companies with wind energy activities shields against serious negative effects," Sydbank's equity research chief said, referring to drug companies Novo Nordisk and Zeeland Pharma , as well as wind energy firms Orsted and Vestas Wind Systems , whose shares have bucked the downward trend. "In a tense situation where massive oil price increases are slowing global growth, a defensive Danish stock market with high resilience in terms of earnings is also well equipped," Pedersen said. In contrast, European airline stocks were hit hard by the dual threat of soaring fuel costs and the potential for a war to depress travel demand. Airlines Shares of pan-European carriers Wizz Air and Ryanair were off by 5% and 3.5%, respectively. Analysts at JPMorgan suggested Wizz is the most exposed, with a 15% hit to its estimated earnings for every 10% rise in jet fuel and 2.2% of its flight capacity in the immediate conflict zone. Better-hedged carriers like Ryanair were projected to see a more modest 3% earnings impact, according to the Wall Street bank's analysts. The risk-off sentiment extended beyond equities and was starkly evident in credit markets, where assets tied to regional stability came under immediate pressure. Middle East real estate JPMorgan downgraded several Dubai real estate bonds to "Underweight," including those issued by Damac Properties and Arada. Analysts at the bank warned that the fallout from a war between Iran and Israel would disproportionately expose Dubai's property sector, given its heavy dependence on foreign investment, which is underpinned by the UAE's reputation as an "oasis of stability." However, the central question for markets is whether the conflict will escalate to threaten the Strait of Hormuz , the chokepoint for nearly a third of the world's seaborne oil trade. JPMorgan had previously estimated that a full blockade could send oil prices surging to the $120-$130 range. @LCO.1 5Y line Others took a more cautious view. Citi suggested the probability of Iran striking regional energy facilities remains low, citing Tehran's recently improved diplomatic relations with Gulf neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. "We believe that energy flow disruptions should be limited. Heightened geopolitical tensions may well remain, but we don't expect energy prices to stay elevated for a sustained period of time," said Citi analysts led by Anthony Yuen in a note to clients. That view was also echoed by Arctic Securities' Skeie. Iran's oil exports, which are at their highest levels since U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, meant there was considerably more downside risk for Tehran than upside. "Somewhat paradoxically, the risk of Iran trying to leverage its power to influence shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market's biggest chokepoint involving more than 20 mbd, may have gone down, not up, if Iran sees the conflict as confined to Israel," Skeie said.

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