Where can equity investors hide as Israel and Iran take aim at each other?

CNBC

16 hours ago

As equity markets broadly declined after Israel and Iran took aim at each other – some sectors and stocks are bucking the trend. The attack, which reportedly killed senior Iranian military and scientific figures, prompted an immediate flight to safety in financial markets. Brent crude , the international oil benchmark, jumped 7% to $78.50 a barrel, its highest level since April. The move rippled across sectors, punishing airlines while rewarding oil tanker owners on bets of imminent supply disruptions. The market turmoil reflects uncertainty over whether Iran will retaliate in a way that further escalates the conflict. Oil and shipping "The increased likelihood of an extended regional conflict means that the market will price in a greater risk to supply," wrote Kristoffer Barth Skeie, an equity research analyst at Arctic Securities, explaining an 8.5% surge in the shares of U.S.-listed oil tanker firm Frontline , the most o f Stoxx Europe 600 index companies. Skeie noted that oil companies and traders will rush to move cargoes out of the region as quickly as possible, shifting pricing power to tanker owners as fewer ships will be willing to enter a potential war zone. "However, the tanker market's standard practice of giving the charterer a few days leeway before confirming a fixture means that the initial reaction may be overdone," Skeie said. If Iran's oil exports of 1.5 million barrels per day — which are currently transported by a sanctioned fleet — came under pressure and were offset by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations, then companies such as Frontline would benefit further, Skeie said. "So the dynamic here is positive for the compliant market," he told CNBC. Shares of Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk also climbed 4.5%, with analysts at Sydbank noting that fears of disruptions to the Suez Canal could keep global freight rates elevated. "Only A.P. Moller-Maersk's earnings will be seriously affected by high fuel prices, but if the consequence of more tensions in the Middle East is that sailing through the Suez Canal is postponed, it could keep freight rates higher than otherwise," said Jacob Pedersen, head of equity research at Sydbank, according to a Danish to English translation by Google. Shipping firms rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the bottom of Africa, as Iran-allied Houthi rebels attacked naval activity in the Red Sea, shutting off access to the much shorter route through the Suez Canal. That pushed up shipping prices temporarily in 2024. Wind and pharmaceuticals More broadly, the Danish stock market is also "resilient" to rising oil prices, according to Pedersen. "The high proportion of oil price-unaffected pharmaceutical companies and companies with wind energy activities shields against serious negative effects," Sydbank's equity research chief said, referring to drug companies Novo Nordisk and Zeeland Pharma , as well as wind energy firms Orsted and Vestas Wind Systems , whose shares have bucked the downward trend. "In a tense situation where massive oil price increases are slowing global growth, a defensive Danish stock market with high resilience in terms of earnings is also well equipped," Pedersen said. In contrast, European airline stocks were hit hard by the dual threat of soaring fuel costs and the potential for a war to depress travel demand. Airlines Shares of pan-European carriers Wizz Air and Ryanair were off by 5% and 3.5%, respectively. Analysts at JPMorgan suggested Wizz is the most exposed, with a 15% hit to its estimated earnings for every 10% rise in jet fuel and 2.2% of its flight capacity in the immediate conflict zone. Better-hedged carriers like Ryanair were projected to see a more modest 3% earnings impact, according to the Wall Street bank's analysts. The risk-off sentiment extended beyond equities and was starkly evident in credit markets, where assets tied to regional stability came under immediate pressure. Middle East real estate JPMorgan downgraded several Dubai real estate bonds to "Underweight," including those issued by Damac Properties and Arada. Analysts at the bank warned that the fallout from a war between Iran and Israel would disproportionately expose Dubai's property sector, given its heavy dependence on foreign investment, which is underpinned by the UAE's reputation as an "oasis of stability." However, the central question for markets is whether the conflict will escalate to threaten the Strait of Hormuz , the chokepoint for nearly a third of the world's seaborne oil trade. JPMorgan had previously estimated that a full blockade could send oil prices surging to the $120-$130 range. @LCO.1 5Y line Others took a more cautious view. Citi suggested the probability of Iran striking regional energy facilities remains low, citing Tehran's recently improved diplomatic relations with Gulf neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. "We believe that energy flow disruptions should be limited. Heightened geopolitical tensions may well remain, but we don't expect energy prices to stay elevated for a sustained period of time," said Citi analysts led by Anthony Yuen in a note to clients. That view was also echoed by Arctic Securities' Skeie. Iran's oil exports, which are at their highest levels since U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, meant there was considerably more downside risk for Tehran than upside. "Somewhat paradoxically, the risk of Iran trying to leverage its power to influence shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market's biggest chokepoint involving more than 20 mbd, may have gone down, not up, if Iran sees the conflict as confined to Israel," Skeie said.