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Business Insider
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Here's the stock-market playbook for the August 1 tariff deadline
Investors waited anxiously for the July 9 tariff deadline only to be met with a new date of August 1, and while the window for negotiations has been pushed out, tariffs are likely still coming. President Donald Trump committed to the new date this week, stating that no new extensions would be granted. His updates included a barrage of tariff letters to more than 20 countries, with threats of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, 50% on Brazil, and 35% on Canada. Even as investors hope that the TACO trade will save them again, market pros told Business Insider this week that there are ways to position for the coming deadline. Here's what they're bullish and bearish on as the market barrels toward the August 1 "T-Day." Bullish Tariffs are aimed at benefiting companies that manufacture in the US. While it's not certain to what extent factory jobs will return, there are some existing domestic industries with positive exposure to the trade war. Trump's 50% tariff on all copper imports announced this week, for instance, should point investors toward some specific areas of the market. Henry Yoshida, CEO of Rocket Dollar, told Business Insider that he sees positive tailwinds for US copper producers, specifically Freeport-McMoRan and Souther Copper Corporation, two companies recently named by Morgan Stanley as likely winners. "These companies, which specialize in copper, would benefit from increased pricing power as tariffs would make copper imports more expensive," he stated. Apart from Copper, Yoshida added that he sees growth ahead for tech companies that build semiconductors in the US. That industry is also set to benefit from the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which includes a valuable tax credit for chipmakers. "Chipmakers that predominantly have US-based manufacturing, such as Texas Instruments and Intel, could see upside gains as tariffs may shift demand to domestic suppliers." Julia Khandoshko, CEO of financial planning firm Mind Money, issued a similar perspective. "In the short term," she said, "semiconductor companies like Intel and Nvidia could come out ahead, since the US will likely push harder for domestic chip production." Bearish Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, recently said that while much remains uncertain about tariffs, some sectors are particularly exposed to risks from the trade war. "From a sector perspective, the most exposed are Consumer Discretionary and Technology, which are sectors deeply reliant on global manufacturing. Further downstream, mass retailers, which depend heavily on low-cost imports, face pricing challenges and potential margin compression." Other experts see high exposure to China as dangerous for companies, particularly as the top US trade partner has promised to retaliate if Trump takes further action against it. From Yoshida's perspective, scaling back on big tech investments makes the most sense. However, he took a different stance on Nvidia than Khandoshko, citing its high exposure to the Chinese supply chain. Along with Apple and Qualcomm, he named Nvidia as a stock investors should consider selling before August 1. He added, though, that he also sees both Tesla and General Motors as being highly vulnerable to the tariff impact, signaling a potential blow to the broader auto market. "GM sells more cars in China than in the US, and both companies rely heavily on China-based production facilities and parts sourcing," he stated. "In retail, Nike faces particular vulnerability, with over 40% of its manufacturing occurring in China." Tom Bruni, Editor-in-Chief and VP of Community of Stocktwits, expressed a similar take, highlighting the risk for companies with heavy dependence on global supply chains, specifically strong links to China. "Apple's heavy manufacturing presence in China, Tesla's reliance on Chinese battery cells/materials, and Walmart 's importing large volumes from affected countries are three of the most prominent examples of companies caught in the crosshairs," he said. Bruni added that in his view, Apple is the bellwether for how the rest of the market reacts to tariff-driven China trade disruptions. "[Apple] has by far the most manufacturing risk," he stated. "How leadership navigates these tariffs and the overall geopolitical environment will set the tone for the rest of the market."
Irish Independent
6 days ago
- Business
- Irish Independent
The Irish Independent's View: More delays mean more uncertainty as world awaits Donald Trump's tariffs
But then there is the bombastic global political phenomenon that is Donald J Trump, now unhappily president of the USA. Another indicator of the man's volatility is that he has shortened the more recent 24-hour news cycle to what often amounts to a quarter of that timeframe. The man's unpredictability is such that what he says at breakfast time may well be completely undone by the end of the day. Tomorrow is yet another 'T-Day', when the three-month suspension, introduced back in April, of threatened hefty trade tariffs on imports potentially kicks in again. News from EU-US trade talks aimed at staving off this calamity has at best been mixed. EU lead negotiator, trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic, a longtime friend of Ireland through Brexit, returned to Brussels at the weekend from talks which were at best described as 'productive', and some kind of contacts continued over the weekend. Ireland risks becoming the meat in the EU-US sandwich Ireland, a 50-year-plus EU member but with very big and close commercial links to the US, has always been at risk of becoming the meat in the EU-US sandwich. The EU's strategy in dealing with 'The Donald' has not always been entirely convincing, as some governments want the big stick deployed, while others – including Ireland – want a more considered approach, with countermeasures identified but held in reserve. It is widely appreciated, but not much use at this point, that Mr Trump's idea of so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' will not actually work. These tariffs will not close the US current account deficit; they will not revive US manufacturing; and they won't replace revenue from Mr Trump's quixotic federal income tax cuts. The EU's focus this week must be about limiting trade dislocation globally and managing the internal politics of responding to Mr Trump's aggression. This is easier said than done, as Mr Trump's tactics are extremely random. He clearly enjoys creating uncertainty and making himself the centre of attention. But we may be looking at more delays, which also means more uncertainty. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, has been saying for more than a week now that Labour Day, on September 1, is a more likely target date than tomorrow. Trade talks take vast amounts of time, skill and patience. Any concession offered must have a reciprocal response. The EU's trade negotiating teams have a depth of skill and experience, as they showed through Brexit when the UK side was left standing at the start gate. Their US counterparts do not lack for experience and skill either. But the real bugbear now is that any mitigating measures keeping many of us back from economic calamity still have to get past Mr Trump.
