Here's the stock-market playbook for the August 1 tariff deadline

Business Insider

12 hours ago

Investors waited anxiously for the July 9 tariff deadline only to be met with a new date of August 1, and while the window for negotiations has been pushed out, tariffs are likely still coming.
President Donald Trump committed to the new date this week, stating that no new extensions would be granted. His updates included a barrage of tariff letters to more than 20 countries, with threats of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, 50% on Brazil, and 35% on Canada.
Even as investors hope that the TACO trade will save them again, market pros told Business Insider this week that there are ways to position for the coming deadline.
Here's what they're bullish and bearish on as the market barrels toward the August 1 "T-Day."
Bullish
Tariffs are aimed at benefiting companies that manufacture in the US. While it's not certain to what extent factory jobs will return, there are some existing domestic industries with positive exposure to the trade war.
Trump's 50% tariff on all copper imports announced this week, for instance, should point investors toward some specific areas of the market.
Henry Yoshida, CEO of Rocket Dollar, told Business Insider that he sees positive tailwinds for US copper producers, specifically Freeport-McMoRan and Souther Copper Corporation, two companies recently named by Morgan Stanley as likely winners.
"These companies, which specialize in copper, would benefit from increased pricing power as tariffs would make copper imports more expensive," he stated.
Apart from Copper, Yoshida added that he sees growth ahead for tech companies that build semiconductors in the US. That industry is also set to benefit from the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which includes a valuable tax credit for chipmakers.
"Chipmakers that predominantly have US-based manufacturing, such as Texas Instruments and Intel, could see upside gains as tariffs may shift demand to domestic suppliers."
Julia Khandoshko, CEO of financial planning firm Mind Money, issued a similar perspective. "In the short term," she said, "semiconductor companies like Intel and Nvidia could come out ahead, since the US will likely push harder for domestic chip production."
Bearish
Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, recently said that while much remains uncertain about tariffs, some sectors are particularly exposed to risks from the trade war.
"From a sector perspective, the most exposed are Consumer Discretionary and Technology, which are sectors deeply reliant on global manufacturing. Further downstream, mass retailers, which depend heavily on low-cost imports, face pricing challenges and potential margin compression."
Other experts see high exposure to China as dangerous for companies, particularly as the top US trade partner has promised to retaliate if Trump takes further action against it.
From Yoshida's perspective, scaling back on big tech investments makes the most sense. However, he took a different stance on Nvidia than Khandoshko, citing its high exposure to the Chinese supply chain. Along with Apple and Qualcomm, he named Nvidia as a stock investors should consider selling before August 1.
He added, though, that he also sees both Tesla and General Motors as being highly vulnerable to the tariff impact, signaling a potential blow to the broader auto market.
"GM sells more cars in China than in the US, and both companies rely heavily on China-based production facilities and parts sourcing," he stated. "In retail, Nike faces particular vulnerability, with over 40% of its manufacturing occurring in China."
Tom Bruni, Editor-in-Chief and VP of Community of Stocktwits, expressed a similar take, highlighting the risk for companies with heavy dependence on global supply chains, specifically strong links to China.
"Apple's heavy manufacturing presence in China, Tesla's reliance on Chinese battery cells/materials, and Walmart 's importing large volumes from affected countries are three of the most prominent examples of companies caught in the crosshairs," he said.
Bruni added that in his view, Apple is the bellwether for how the rest of the market reacts to tariff-driven China trade disruptions.
"[Apple] has by far the most manufacturing risk," he stated. "How leadership navigates these tariffs and the overall geopolitical environment will set the tone for the rest of the market."