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Hans India
a day ago
- Business
- Hans India
Crude oil prices may rebound as supply stabilises, geopolitical tensions ease
New Delhi: Crude oil prices may see a recovery in the near term as positive signals emerge from the supply side and geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, experts said on Saturday. While demand concerns continue to weigh on global sentiment, market experts believe crude prices could bounce back if key technical levels are sustained. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices remained subdued on Friday, trading near the mid $65 range amid thin holiday trading and weak global demand. However, analysts are pointing to a potential turnaround, especially with key events like the OPEC+ meeting and the US tariff deadline on the horizon. Tejas Shigrekar, Chief Technical Research Analyst -- Commodities and Currencies at Angel One Ltd, said the crude oil outlook remains mixed, but there are reasons for cautious optimism. He noted that while demand has been hit due to slowdowns in global manufacturing --particularly in China and the Eurozone -- OPEC+ production cuts are still keeping global supply tight. 'These cuts, mainly led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have helped prevent a deeper fall in prices,' he explained. 'Even with softer demand projections from OECD countries, the coordinated output curbs are providing a floor to prices,' Shigrekar said. 'And unless there's a major supply shock, crude futures are likely to remain in a broad range, supported by strategic buying,' he stated. Geopolitical risks, which had earlier pushed prices higher, have somewhat eased after the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Iran's renewed commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has also helped calm the market. While tensions in the South China Sea and the Middle East persist, there has been no major disruption to global supply chains so far. Traders are now focused on the July 5 OPEC+ meeting, where a third consecutive production hike of 411,000 barrels per day is expected to be approved for August. From a technical point of view, Shigrekar believes a price rebound is possible if WTI crude holds above the $62.70 support level. A break above Rs 5,780 could push domestic crude prices to Rs 6,000-Rs 6,200. But if support slips below Rs 5,550, we may see a drop toward Rs 5,330 or even Rs 5,000,' analysts mentioned.
Mint
16-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Gold prices slip towards key support level. Is a sharp drop coming for the yellow metal?
Gold price today: Gold is not shining as bright as it once was, as a trade truce between the US and China — the world's two largest economies — has spurred the risk-taking appetite of investors. After hitting all-time high levels of ₹ 99,358 per 10 grams, the June gold contracts on the MCX have lost ₹ 7,347 or 7.4% from their peak. In trade today, May 16, gold prices crashed over 1% to slip below the ₹ 92,000 mark. In the US markets, spot gold was down 0.9% to $3,210.19 an ounce. Bullion has lost more than 3% so far this week and is set for its worst weekly performance since November 2024. "As trade tensions between the US and China eased, gold's appeal as a safe haven diminished. Concerns regarding the long-term effects of the trade war were allayed when both nations agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on each other's goods for a period of ninety days," explained Tejas Shigrekar, Senior Technical Analyst- Commodities and Currencies, Angel One. Additionally, a stronger US dollar has also dampened demand for gold. US dollar index is heading for its fourth straight weekly gain, making gold less attractive for other currency holders. The absence of a dovish signal from the US Federal Reserve, with no immediate interest rate cut, further limited buying momentum in bullion, said said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities. While fundamental factors seem to be working against the yellow metal, technically, too, the gold price is nearing key supports, a breach of which could open further downside. According to analysts at Axis Securities, gold is threatening to end below the 50-day moving average for the first time since December. "Gold is now testing the lower band of a 50-day moving average envelope (±3%), which has supported all dips since November 2024. A key time window from May 16 to May 20 may be crucial for a potential trend reversal," the brokerage said. The brokerage added that $3136 is the level where the length of the current decline is the same as the previous decline from the all-time high. If this level breaks, Axis Securities believes it would open downside potential toward $2,875–$2,950. Trividi of LKP Securities said technical indicators suggest continued weakness as long as prices remain below ₹ 94,000 on MCX and $3,240 on Comex. The easing of global risk concerns and a firm dollar may continue to pressure gold in the short term, according to him. Sharing a trading startegy for investors, Shigrekar said investors can sell on a rally around ₹ 94,300- 94,500 for a target price of ₹ 90,000- 89,500, and a stop loss above ₹ 95,600. If the price sustains below 89500 next major support is at 85000, he added. In dollar terms, gold spot prices are likely to see support at $2940 and resistance at $3320. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
