Gold prices slip towards key support level. Is a sharp drop coming for the yellow metal?
After hitting all-time high levels of ₹ 99,358 per 10 grams, the June gold contracts on the MCX have lost ₹ 7,347 or 7.4% from their peak. In trade today, May 16, gold prices crashed over 1% to slip below the ₹ 92,000 mark.
In the US markets, spot gold was down 0.9% to $3,210.19 an ounce. Bullion has lost more than 3% so far this week and is set for its worst weekly performance since November 2024.
"As trade tensions between the US and China eased, gold's appeal as a safe haven diminished. Concerns regarding the long-term effects of the trade war were allayed when both nations agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on each other's goods for a period of ninety days," explained Tejas Shigrekar, Senior Technical Analyst- Commodities and Currencies, Angel One.
Additionally, a stronger US dollar has also dampened demand for gold. US dollar index is heading for its fourth straight weekly gain, making gold less attractive for other currency holders.
The absence of a dovish signal from the US Federal Reserve, with no immediate interest rate cut, further limited buying momentum in bullion, said said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
While fundamental factors seem to be working against the yellow metal, technically, too, the gold price is nearing key supports, a breach of which could open further downside.
According to analysts at Axis Securities, gold is threatening to end below the 50-day moving average for the first time since December.
"Gold is now testing the lower band of a 50-day moving average envelope (±3%), which has supported all dips since November 2024. A key time window from May 16 to May 20 may be crucial for a potential trend reversal," the brokerage said.
The brokerage added that $3136 is the level where the length of the current decline is the same as the previous decline from the all-time high. If this level breaks, Axis Securities believes it would open downside potential toward $2,875–$2,950.
Trividi of LKP Securities said technical indicators suggest continued weakness as long as prices remain below ₹ 94,000 on MCX and $3,240 on Comex. The easing of global risk concerns and a firm dollar may continue to pressure gold in the short term, according to him.
Sharing a trading startegy for investors, Shigrekar said investors can sell on a rally around ₹ 94,300- 94,500 for a target price of ₹ 90,000- 89,500, and a stop loss above ₹ 95,600. If the price sustains below 89500 next major support is at 85000, he added.
In dollar terms, gold spot prices are likely to see support at $2940 and resistance at $3320.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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