Latest news with #ThaiBankers'Association
Bangkok Post
06-08-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thai growth projections upgraded on lower US tariffs
The local private sector has increased its forecast for Thai GDP growth this year to 1.8-2.2%, rising from an estimate of 1.5-2% following the recent US decision to reduce tariffs on imports from Thailand from 36% to 19%. At its meeting on Wednesday, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking cited the US tariff reduction as a key factor contributing to the improved economic outlook. The committee also upgraded its forecast for Thai export growth from -0.5% to 0.3%, rising to a more optimistic 2-3% growth, aligning with positive global economic signals after the latest US tariff announcements for many other countries. Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, said the 19% reciprocal tariff imposed on Thai goods helps the nation avoid the worst-case scenario of losing competitiveness against neighbouring countries, which are now subject to similar tariff levels. However, Mr Payong cautioned that economic growth in the second half of the year is expected to slow, largely due to persistent export challenges. Headwinds include intensified price competition from import surges, declining foreign arrivals and tourism revenue, and the ongoing Thailand-Cambodia border conflict - all of which could dampen economic performance in the latter half of the year. In addition, Mr Payong said, Thailand is likely to face greater challenges from the final quarter of this year into early 2026. Given this outlook, Thailand needs to pursue business and economic reforms to better prepare for long-term uncertainties, Mr Payong said. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the US tariff policy should serve as a wake-up call for Thailand to strengthen its long-term competitiveness, particularly in the manufacturing sector and small and medium-sized enterprises. He called for industrial restructuring and identification of priority sectors aligned with national strategies. Thai manufacturers must enhance production processes across supply chains and upstream industries to increase local content, improve productivity and reduce costs. Adoption of technology and innovation, along with workforce upskilling, including both Thai and migrant workers, was essential to building real economic value. Mr Kriengkrai said the private sector is ready to cooperate with the government, especially in providing data support. Thailand lacks critical industry-level structural data, such as the usage of primary and intermediate raw materials and regional value content, he said. To comply with new US export requirements, the private sector has begun collecting baseline data. However, to develop a comprehensive and reliable database, cooperation from public sector agencies is essential. Such data will be critical for policy decisions and international negotiations in the evolving global trade landscape, Mr Kriengkrai said. Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that despite a US tariff rate regarded as consistent for the region, Thailand still requires economic adjustments in both the short and long term. In the near term, price competition is expected to intensify for both Thai exports and domestic products, which will face growing pressure from increased import competition due to expanded market access, he warned.
Bangkok Post
30-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Pichai: US rate likely to be revealed by Saturday
US tariffs on Thailand are expected to be announced on Aug 1 or 2, with the rate unlikely to remain at 36%, says Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira. Following an agreement for an unconditional ceasefire along the Thai-Cambodian border, Mr Pichai said negotiations with the US are ongoing. He said many issues have been concluded, with only a few remaining. "The tariff rate should not be 36%. When the US announces its decision depends on its time frame. It could be Aug 1 or 2," said Mr Pichai. "I believe the announcement will happen soon." US President Donald Trump previously announced on X if Thailand and Cambodia failed to agree to a ceasefire, the US would not proceed with tariff negotiations with either country. Following the ceasefire agreement, Trump announced he asked US officials to resume trade negotiations with the duo. "We must consider both national security and economic matters," said Mr Pichai. "The proposals submitted to the US offer benefits to both sides and provide Thailand with an opportunity to implement measures to enhance the competitiveness of the Thai private sector." He also addressed assistance measures for people in the seven provinces along the Thai-Cambodian border who have been affected by the conflict. The government plans to allocate up to 10 billion baht to provide relief for people affected by the conflict, said Mr Pichai. The Finance Ministry is considering relief measures for the 160,000 people who evacuated during the skirmish, which lasted about one week. The estimated 10 billion baht in funding may partly come from the remaining 25 billion baht in the economic stimulus budget. This would be used to compensate for housing repairs and reconstruction for affected residents, according to the ministry. In addition, he said the ministry is evaluating income support measures for the 160,000 evacuees who lost income during the period, as well as compensation for property damage. For residents of the seven border provinces, the Comptroller-General's Department increased the emergency advance budget allocation for provincial governors from 20 million baht to 100 million. In terms of taxes, the government extended the deadline for tax filing to Sept 30, 2025, and introduced tax relief measures, allowing deductions of up to 100,000 baht for home repairs and up to 30,000 baht for vehicle repairs due to damage from the conflict. In a related development, Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, said the association introduced relief measures for customers affected by the border unrest. He said member banks will consider providing assistance covering credit cards, personal loans and other loan products. For credit cards, member banks are reducing the minimum repayment rate for affected cardholders. For personal loans, banks plan to support affected clients by offering temporary suspensions of principal and/or interest payments, as well as debt restructuring tailored to each customer's repayment capacity. Moreover, banks plan to provide additional support based on each debtor's liquidity situation to ease their financial burden during the crisis.
Bangkok Post
15-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Bankers' association pushes formal economy to the fore
The use of public policy to support the economy should primarily focus on the formal economy and Thai labour, according to Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA). Speaking at the iBusiness Forum seminar hosted on Tuesday by the Manager Group, Mr Payong said this approach would help drive economic mechanisms and boost Thai people's income over the next 5-7 years. Last week, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) held discussions with the Bank of Thailand (BoT) on economic support through public policy, as heightened uncertainties -- particularly due to the US tariffs -- are expected to impact both business and household sectors in various ways. The private sector council proposed that the use of public policy to support the economy should primarily focus on the formal economy and Thai labour. Typically the formal economy covers both taxpayers and non-taxpayers. According to Mr Payong, the current economic situation, impacted by US tariffs, presents an opportunity for both the public and private sectors to initiate meaningful reforms in economic and business practices. During global crises in the past, many countries leveraged the situation to reform their economies and enhance their post-crisis potential. For instance, during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, global GDP growth fell sharply -- dropping to 2.1% in 2008 and contracting by 1.3% in 2009 -- down from growth rates of 4.5% in 2006 and 4.4% in 2007. In the aftermath, global GDP rebounded, reaching 4.5% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011. Similarly, during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, global GDP contracted by 2.9%. In response, many countries, including Southeast Asian nations, undertook significant economic reforms, leading to improved growth potential post-pandemic. "Thailand, however, has not yet capitalised on such crises as opportunities for meaningful economic reform. Now is an opportune moment to implement reforms in preparation for future recovery," Mr Payong said. He noted that reforms should focus on Thailand's export and manufacturing sectors, both of which are vulnerable to US tariffs, as well as long-standing structural issues. Technological development is another critical area, which is essential for improving national productivity and upskilling the Thai workforce. In 2024, Thailand ranked 39th globally in digital and technological skills, trailing Singapore (2nd), Indonesia (20th) and Malaysia (36th). ChatGPT adoption per internet user in Thailand stands at 6%, compared to 17% in the Philippines, 14% in Malaysia, 9% in Vietnam and 7% in Indonesia. Mr Payong also stressed the need for increased investment in research and development (R&D) to boost productivity and GDP per capita. Currently, Thailand's R&D investment is less than 20% of GDP, he noted.
