2 days ago
Hollywood loves quake disaster flicks, but do we know what the real ‘Big One' will look like?
If you live in Southern California, there is an ever-present fear about the inevitable 'Big One,' the quake that seismologists say is coming, it's just a matter of time.
And Hollywood has no problem reminding us of this existential threat:
There was the ominous NBC miniseries in 1990, dubbed 'The Big One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake,' that raked in the ratings and the 2015 action flick San Andreas, plus the Universal Studios Hollywood's 'Big One' earthquake ride (based on a San Francisco quake) that paints a violent and thrilling end.
But we don't need Hollywood to remind us.
Many suffered through real damaging earthquakes that weren't quite 'The Big One': 1987 Whittier Narrows (5.9), 1992 Landers (7.3), 1994 Northridge (6.7) and the 1999 Hector Mine (7.1), to name a few.
The memory of those quakes, however, nor the imagination of Hollywood will probably match the 'Big One' when it finally hits, according to my colleague Rong-Gong Lin II who wrote about this recently.
So, what can we expect when California's next mega-earthquake strikes along the San Andreas fault?
That's the implication of a study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer reviewed journal. The report, co-authored by scientists at Caltech in Pasadena, studied a massive earthquake that struck the Southeast Asian country of Myanmar on March 28 — along a fault known for being eerily similar to California's San Andreas.
The earthquake ended up rupturing a much longer section of the fault than scientists expected, given the seismology of the region.
The implications of this study are that 'earthquakes never come back exactly the same way,' Solene L. Antoine, a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech and the study's lead author, said in an interview.
March's Mandalay earthquake devastated Myanmar, killing at least 3,791 people and an additional 63 people in Thailand.
High-rise buildings were damaged as far away as Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam along with homes in the Ruili area of China. Damage was estimated at $1.9 billion, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
It was the most powerful earthquake in Myanmar in at least 79 years.
What's clear from the study is that while California's next 'Big One' may share some characteristics of previously documented devastating quakes, it's unlikely to be an exact replay. As the recent experience in Myanmar shows, even well-documented faults can behave in surprising ways.
Maybe the San Andreas fault will rupture in smaller, separate earthquakes, said Jean-Philippe Avouac, a co-author of the study and a professor of geology and mechanical and civil engineering at Caltech.
Or it could be a much larger earthquake — rupturing the fault not just from Monterey to Los Angeles counties, but perhaps all the way east into San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties. Such a quake would possibly exceed magnitude 8 and rank as the largest simultaneous disaster in modern California history, with huge swaths of the state racked by powerful seismic shaking all at once.
Modeling previous activity on the San Andreas fault will offer a glimpse into the wide range of possible outcomes, but it will not pinpoint precisely when the next great quake will strike.
'We can't just expect the exact same thing to happen,' Antoine said. 'It is a matter of just showing what scenarios are possible, the diversity of scenarios and seeing what are the consequences of each of those scenarios.'
And that means Hollywood has plenty of fodder for more disaster films.
This was a small excerpt from the full article, which can be found here.
Have a great weekend, from the Essential California team
Jim Rainey, staff writerDiamy Wang, homepage internIzzy Nunes, audience internKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorAndrew J. Campa, reporterKarim Doumar, head of newsletters
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