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Cision Canada
4 days ago
- Business
- Cision Canada
Provincial Economies Hampered by Lower Immigration and Consumer Confidence Français
OTTAWA, ON, June 4, 2025 /CNW/ - Although inflation has improved and monetary policy has become less restrictive, growth prospects for the provinces have been significantly weighed down by trade disruption, according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. "While consumers are benefiting from lower inflation and eased borrowing costs, consumer confidence has been at record lows this year," according to Richard Forbes, Principal Economist at The Conference Board of Canada. "Similarly, despite tariffs being paused or scaled back by the U.S. administration, business confidence has decreased and will take time to recover." Alberta's economy remains vulnerable to resource-driven uncertainty and will see a small decline in business investment this year, primarily due to lower oil prices. However, the province is expected to see strong gains in employment, helping real GDP to increase 1.4 per cent in 2025 and a further 2.2 per cent in 2026. Saskatchewan is highly exposed to Chinese tariffs hitting the agricultural sector, though the medium-term outlook for the province is supported by potash and uranium mining. Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.4 per cent in 2025 and a further 2.4 per cent in 2026. Newfoundland and Labrador's export sector will contribute to growth thanks to rising oil output. However, it will be the only province to see a decline in employment, largely due to a weak demographic outlook. Real GDP is forecast to increase 1.2 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.6 per cent in 2026. British Columbia is expected to see strong gains in consumer spending supported by strengthening interprovincial migration, which will provide a partial counterbalance to weaker international migration. Real GDP in the province is anticipated to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025 and an additional 1.7 per cent in 2026. Manitoba is expected to see continued population and employment growth in the coming years. This, along with a drought-free agricultural season and a healthy construction sector could offset weakness in other sectors. Real GDP is expected to increase 1.1 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.9 per cent in 2026. Nova Scotia will be negatively impacted by slower international migration, which coupled with a limited inventory of major projects will limit real GDP growth to 1.0 per cent in 2025 before increasing a further 1.4 per cent in 2026. Ontario's economy is heavily exposed to tariffs on auto and steel manufacturers. It will, however, be one of the few provinces that sees growth in residential investment. Real GDP is expected to increase by 0.8 per cent in 2025 and an additional 2.1 per cent in 2026. Prince Edward Island is anticipated to lead the country in employment growth and will see strong housing investment. Real GDP will grow by 0.7 per cent in 2025 and an additional 1.7 per cent in 2026. Investment growth in New Brunswick is expected to remain weak in the coming years, while the province will also see a contraction in population, in large part due to cuts in permanent and temporary immigration streams. Real GDP is expected to grow just 0.6 per cent this year, before increasing an additional 1.4 per cent in 2026. Hampered by weak business investment, aluminum tariffs and unfavourable demographics, Quebec's economy is forecast to grow by just 0.6 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.6 per cent in 2026. About The Conference Board of Canada The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on X @ConfBoardofCda. For more information on our impact, please visit the link here.
Associated Press
4 days ago
- Business
- Associated Press
Provincial Economies Hampered by Lower Immigration and Consumer Confidence
OTTAWA, ON, June 4, 2025 /CNW/ - Although inflation has improved and monetary policy has become less restrictive, growth prospects for the provinces have been significantly weighed down by trade disruption, according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. 'While consumers are benefiting from lower inflation and eased borrowing costs, consumer confidence has been at record lows this year,' according to Richard Forbes, Principal Economist at The Conference Board of Canada. 'Similarly, despite tariffs being paused or scaled back by the U.S. administration, business confidence has decreased and will take time to recover.' Alberta's economy remains vulnerable to resource-driven uncertainty and will see a small decline in business investment this year, primarily due to lower oil prices. However, the province is expected to see strong gains in employment, helping real GDP to increase 1.4 per cent in 2025 and a further 2.2 per cent in 2026. Saskatchewan is highly exposed to Chinese tariffs hitting the agricultural sector, though the medium-term outlook for the province is supported by potash and uranium mining. Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.4 per cent in 2025 and a further 2.4 per cent in 2026. Newfoundland and Labrador's export sector will contribute to growth thanks to rising oil output. However, it will be the only province to see a decline in employment, largely due to a weak demographic outlook. Real GDP is forecast to increase 1.2 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.6 per cent in 2026. British Columbia is expected to see strong gains in consumer spending supported by strengthening interprovincial migration, which will provide a partial counterbalance to weaker international migration. Real GDP in the province is anticipated to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025 and an additional 1.7 per cent in 2026. Manitoba is expected to see continued population and employment growth in the coming years. This, along with a drought-free agricultural season and a healthy construction sector could offset weakness in other sectors. Real GDP is expected to increase 1.1 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.9 per cent in 2026. Nova Scotia will be negatively impacted by slower international migration, which coupled with a limited inventory of major projects will limit real GDP growth to 1.0 per cent in 2025 before increasing a further 1.4 per cent in 2026. Ontario's economy is heavily exposed to tariffs on auto and steel manufacturers. It will, however, be one of the few provinces that sees growth in residential investment. Real GDP is expected to increase by 0.8 per cent in 2025 and an additional 2.1 per cent in 2026. Prince Edward Island is anticipated to lead the country in employment growth and will see strong housing investment. Real GDP will grow by 0.7 per cent in 2025 and an additional 1.7 per cent in 2026. Investment growth in New Brunswick is expected to remain weak in the coming years, while the province will also see a contraction in population, in large part due to cuts in permanent and temporary immigration streams. Real GDP is expected to grow just 0.6 per cent this year, before increasing an additional 1.4 per cent in 2026. Hampered by weak business investment, aluminum tariffs and unfavourable demographics, Quebec's economy is forecast to grow by just 0.6 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.6 per cent in 2026. About The Conference Board of Canada The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on X @ConfBoardofCda. For more information on our impact, please visit the link here. SOURCE Conference Board of Canada
Cision Canada
21-05-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Canadian Union Wage Growth Outpaces Inflation
OTTAWA, ON, May 21, 2025 /CNW/ - For the first time in three years, average wage increases in major Canadian settlements outpaced inflation, according to The Conference Board of Canada 's latest Labour Relations Data Hub. "Looking ahead, Canada's labour market is expected to face ongoing challenges," Diogo Borba, Senior Research Associate of Human Capital at The Conference Board of Canada. "Wage growth is projected to outpace inflation again in 2025, but a tightening labour market – driven by declining immigration targets and the ongoing retirement of baby boomers – will add to workforce pressures." In 2024, wages rose by an average of 3.0 per cent, surpassing the year's 2.4 per cent inflation rate. The strongest gains were seen in manufacturing, primary industries, and entertainment and hospitality, while information and culture as well as education, health, and social services experienced the lowest. Regionally, wage growth was highest in Quebec and British Columbia and lowest in Alberta and Nova Scotia. Labour disruptions remained a significant challenge in 2024, with major stoppages across key industries that resulted in 2.3 million person-days lost. Although this marked a sharp decline from the 6.6 million lost in 2023, it is the highest recorded number since 2006. The federally regulated transportation sector accounted over half of these work stoppages, with 1.3 million person-days lost. With 143 collective agreements set to expire in 2025 and nearly one million unionized workers impacted as a result, labour negotiations will play a pivotal role in shaping the labour landscape in 2025. The education, health, and social services sector faces the highest number of expiring agreements, followed by public administration and transportation. Key negotiations include the Government of Canada's agreement with the Public Service Alliance of Canada, major construction agreements in Quebec, and large contracts in the education, health, and social services sector across multiple provinces. The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on X @ConfBoardofCda. For more information on our impact, please visit the link here.
Calgary Herald
25-04-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
What the tech sector wants from the federal election as Canada faces 'perfect storm' for foreign takeovers
Article content Canada's innovation and productivity woes are no secret. A report by The Conference Board of Canada found the country placed 15th out of 20 advanced economies when it comes to innovation performance in 2024, while a report the same year from a TD Economics report noted business sector productivity has failed to grow at all since 2019. Both the Liberal and Conservative parties have promised a combination of smarter investment and tax policy and more efficient government as ways of helping the country improve its economic performance, but what does the technology sector itself want? Here's what they say is needed to establish Canada as a force in the digital age. Article content Article content Article content Article content The belief that Canada's tax system needs to be more competitive, overall, to spur investment in innovation is widely held in the tech sector. Article content After the Liberals proposed a capital gains tax hike in 2022, Canada's tech industry vocally campaigned Ottawa to scrap the idea. High tax rates and complex regulations 'deter investment, drive businesses to relocate, and stifle innovation,' said the Canadian Venture Capital Association (CVCA), a private capital sector lobby group that represents over 350 firms. In one of his early moves after taking over as prime minister, Mark Carney cancelled the unpopular increase ahead of the federal election. Article content The CVCA is proposing further measures. It recommends that Ottawa temporarily reduce the capital gains tax inclusion rate from 50 per cent to 25 per cent for investments into eligible Canadian businesses for a period of three to five years to stimulate 'productive private investment,' it said in an April 2025 white paper. Article content Article content Certain programs, such as Canada's Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax credit, designed to incentivize businesses to conduct R&D in Canada, should be modernized 'to reward innovation and commercialization of Canadian ideas' and support Canadian companies, the Canadian Council of Innovators (CCI), a tech lobby group that represents 150 Canadian companies. The CVCA suggest this could be achieved by raising annual expenditure limits and taxable capital thresholds. Article content Article content Some tech executives and advocacy groups have endorsed shedding underperforming government programs and streamlining agencies. Article content In February, a coalition of tech founders and leaders launched Build Canada — a platform for publishing policy proposals. In one memo, Daniel Eberhard, the founder and CEO of fintech Koho Financial Inc., advocated for a leaner and more effective federal civil service that would slash 110,000 public sector jobs and mandate and publish 'department performance metrics and targets for all federal civil services.' A number of business leaders supported the idea, including Shopify Inc.'s head of engineering, Farhan Thawar; WIND Mobile co-founder Brice Scheschuk; and CIBC's head of innovation banking, Mark McQueen.
