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Cision Canada
29-07-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Provincial Finances Facing Headwinds Français
Near-term challenges but brighter longer-term outlook OTTAWA, ON, /CNW/ - The sluggish economy will weigh heavily on provincial government revenues across the country in 2025, as all provincial governments will run deficits this fiscal year, according to The Conference Board of Canada 's Provincial Fiscal Outlook, a new annual report from the organization. "Provinces will continue to feel the pinch from higher interest rates brought on by spending due to the pandemic and subsequent deficits," stated Richard Forbes, Principal Economist at The Conference Board of Canada. "Demographics are creating an additional challenge to regional economies with the combination of retirees and slower population growth. However, our fiscal outlook brightens over the next five years as governments are broadly planning to reduce spending and will benefit from stronger economic growth across the country." Demographics are the biggest concern for Newfoundland and Labrador 's fiscal outlook. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the province's population will shrink by 10,000 residents over the next five years. Despite the demographic challenges, there are some positive developments for the region as oil and gas production is set to ramp up upon the completion of the Terra Nova Platform. Revenues are projected to rise 2.1 per cent in 2025-26 and by an annual average of 2.7 per cent in the following four fiscal years. Prince Edward Island has posted the strongest population gains of any province over the past 10 years, which is 25.0 per cent higher than it was in 2015. Tourism will provide a boost to revenues, particularly as more Canadians travel domestically in light of political tensions with the United States. The sector will also get a boost when the Charlottetown airport expansion is completed later this decade. Revenues, meanwhile, are forecast to rise 5.7 per cent in 2025-26 and by an annual average of 3.5 per cent between 2026-27 and 2029-30. Nova Scotia is estimating an $82-million surplus for the previous fiscal year compared to a $467 deficit projected just a year ago, putting the province in a good position to weather the economic headwinds of 2025. However, deficits are still expected over the medium term. Overall, revenues are expected to fall 2.3 per cent in 2025-26 before rising 2.6 per cent annually between 2026-27 and 2029-30. New Brunswick has been one of the most fiscally responsible provinces, posting a string of surpluses for the better part of the past decade. A major downside risk to our revenue outlook is from the province's forestry industry, which is exposed to tariffs from the United States. Revenues are anticipated to rise 3.0 per cent in 2025-26 – driven by stronger federal transfers – and 2.8 per cent annually through 2029-30. As Quebec moves toward restoring fiscal balance, it will be compelled to rein in spending growth despite rising pressures on public services. This fiscal restraint comes at a time when demand for healthcare is increasing, and the education sector is calling for greater investment. Healthcare spending, in particular, is expected to bear the brunt of the slowdown. Provincial revenues are forecast to rise by just 1.1 per cent in 2025, down from last year's 6.6 per cent growth. Revenues are then anticipated to rise by an annual average of 3.4 per cent between 2026 and 2029. Ontario 's fiscal outlook remains stable despite the province being highly exposed to U.S. trade tensions. Spending in Budget 2025 included an acceleration of infrastructure plans, bringing total infrastructure costs close to $100 billion over the next three years. This year, provincial revenues are forecast to decline by 0.1 per cent, marking a sharp reversal from last year's 6.0 per cent increase. The pullback reflects weaker economic growth and a deceleration in population gains. Overall, revenues are expected to rise by an annual average of 3.2 per cent between fiscal years 2026–27 and 2029–30. Manitoba 's fiscal outlook is steady despite rising debt costs. The province's 2025 budget hits many of the same marks as its 2024 budget, with a large focus placed on healthcare and education. This year's budget sets a new historic level of healthcare and education spending, but spending growth is slated to moderate considerably between 2026 and 2029. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts revenues to rise by a healthy 6.3 per cent this year, which is strong growth compared to the other provinces. Revenue growth will moderate between 2026-27 and 2029-30 but remain in relatively good shape, with average annual gains of 2.9 per cent. Despite lingering economic uncertainty, Saskatchewan 's revenues are expected to grow at a solid pace in the near term. Robust population growth in recent years and a low unemployment rate will continue to support strong growth in personal income tax revenues. On the energy front, oil royalties are projected to remain flat this fiscal year due to lower prices, but a rebound in oil markets, coupled with rising potash output from the Jansen project, will help drive stronger resource revenues in the years ahead. Overall, The Conference Board of Canada anticipates the province's budgetary revenues will increase by 5.7 per cent in fiscal year 2025–26 and average 3.3 per cent yearly until 2029–30. Alberta remains in a stronger financial position than most provinces. It continues to boast the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada, giving it more room to absorb economic shocks. This strong foundation provides a cushion if oil prices remain low for a prolonged period or if external challenges undermine investment in the province's energy sector. Overall, revenues are expected to fall by 2.5 per cent in the current fiscal year, driven by lower royalties, before picking up to 3.6 per cent annual growth between 2026-27 and 2029-30. British Columbia 's finances have taken a steep turn over the past few years. In comparison with recent history, The Conference Board of Canada anticipates a slowdown in investment in the province, which weighs on our revenue outlook. However, there is promise with movement from the federal government on a plan to fast-track projects, particularly in Western Canada, which could kickstart business investment in the province. All told, revenues will rise a health 4.1 per cent in 2025-26, supported by increased royalties, and average 3.5 per cent annual growth in the following four fiscal years. The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on X @ConfBoardofCda. For more information on our impact, please visit the link here.
The Market Online
08-07-2025
- Business
- The Market Online
Market Open: New Tariff Proposal Rises TSX Futures
Canada's main index futures rose slightly Tuesday as investors reacted to President Trump's latest tariff plans and an approaching deadline for new trade deals. Market Numbers (Futures) TSX : Up ( 0.20%) 27,074.33TSXV: Up (0.32%) 757.62DOW: Down (0.03%) 44,667.00NASDAQ: Up (0.24%) 22,940.00 FTSE: Up (0.19%) 8,822.84 In the Headlines: A large shareholder of Dye & Durham Ltd. is pushing the company to put itself up for sale and seeking changes to its board of directors. And The Conference Board of Canada expects wage hikes will pick up speed in the coming years as the pace of population growth slows down. Currencies Update: (Futures) The Canadian dollar is higher this morning standing at $0.7336 U.S, glowing green on the Euro by 0.11% to $0.6255 and Bitcoin sneaks in 0.22% to CDN$148,602.94 Commodities: (Futures) Natural Gas: Down (0.68%), 3.39WTI: Down (0.09%), 67.87Gold: Down (0.25%), 3,327,66 Copper: Up (0.10%) 6.16 To stay up-to-date on all of your market news head to Join the discussion: Find out what everybody's saying check out the rest of Stockhouse's stock forums and message boards. The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. For full disclaimer information, please click here
Cision Canada
07-07-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Canada's Economic Outlook Clouded by Uncertainty Français
OTTAWA, ON, July 7, 2025 /CNW/ - The Canadian economy is set to face further headwinds as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies continues to weigh on business and consumer confidence, according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. GDP is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent in 2025. "The economy outperformed expectations in the first quarter of 2025, but the momentum is quickly fading," said Cory Renner, Associate Director, Economic Forecasting at The Conference Board of Canada. "Trade disputes are casting shadows over multiple sectors of the economy and are expected to dampen growth throughout the remainder of the year." Canada's housing market remains under intense pressure. Nervous buyers, elevated consumer debt, poor affordability, and weakening population growth are dampening an already cooling market. Government initiatives, including the federal government's promise of the new Build Canada Homes agency, will help, though only modestly. Looking ahead, a projected quarter-point interest rate cut in the latter half of the year will provide some additional relief. The United States economy is losing momentum. Following two years of exceptional growth, the U.S. economy contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2025, for the first time since the beginning of 2022. Weakening consumer and business confidence, rising unemployment, and accelerating inflation, driven by the recent trade and immigration policies, are all dragging on economic activity. Growth is projected to slow to 1.4 per cent in 2025 before improving slightly to 1.5 per cent in 2026. Given the trade conflict between Canada and the United States, Canada's trade sector is in for a rough ride. While Canadian exporters have turned to new markets with some success, these gains are insufficient to offset the sharp decline in exports from our largest trading partner. Import growth will also be held back as Canadians and businesses rein in spending. Canada's labour market is showing signs of weakness. Fragile business sentiment is dampening hiring plans, slowing job growth and pushing the unemployment rate upwards. The effects of the federal government's 2024 migration policy changes are also beginning to take hold, with employment growth outpacing labour force growth in the first quarter of 2025. Business investment is expected to suffer, with concerns over the Canada-U.S. trade relationship keeping spending subdued. Targeted policy measures aimed at making Canada a more attractive place to invest could help boost capital spending and offer some much-needed support. However, ongoing uncertainty in the electric vehicle space is adding downside risk to the forecast. About The Conference Board of Canada The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on X @ConfBoardofCda. For more information on our impact, please visit the link here.
Cision Canada
24-06-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Building a Future-Ready Trade Infrastructure Network
OTTAWA, ON, /CNW/ - To build a future-ready trade infrastructure network, Canada must develop a long-term strategy and invest in transformative trade infrastructure projects, according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. "With global markets shifting and an increasingly volatile global climate, Canada's trade infrastructure stands at a critical juncture," said Susan Black, Chief Executive Officer of The Conference Board of Canada. "Addressing today's challenges requires a strategic, systems-level approach that aligns regional objectives and lays the foundation for sustained global competitiveness." Canada's trade performance has been falling for decades. From 2004 to 2024, volumes of energy and services exports grew by 75 per cent and 90 per cent respectively, while volumes of goods exports rose by a comparatively weak 7 per cent. Our infrastructure investments have not kept pace with the evolving demands of an increasingly complex global trade environment. "Canada has an opportunity to redefine its trade corridors and build an infrastructure network that is both resilient and future-oriented," said Babatunde Olateju, Director of Sustainability at The Conference Board of Canada. "However, this will not be achieved through standalone, isolated projects - it calls for coordinated efforts and a shared vision that accounts for both federal and provincial-territorial priorities." Diversification will be central to Canada's forward-looking vision. While the United States remains Canada's largest trading partner, opportunities in Europe and Asia are emerging and require infrastructure investment to facilitate new trade corridors and new product markets in areas such as critical minerals and hydrogen. Already, collaborative efforts between governments and private industry are advancing transformative projects. Not only are these partnerships crucial for deploying new technologies, but also for generating trade infrastructure projects within broader developmental strategies. To fully unlock the benefits of these efforts, Canada must also broaden its focus beyond the primary trade network. While considerable focus has been directed toward building capacity at major ports (e.g. the Port of Vancouver) and the mainline rail network, secondary regional infrastructure remains overlooked. Tapping into these systems could enhance the efficiency and resilience of trade networks. Canada has several examples, at various stages of readiness, of trade infrastructure projects that advance federal and provincial–territorial strategic objectives in trade and trade infrastructure. These transformative trade infrastructure projects exemplify the long-term vision for the future of the trade network. With seismic shifts in the economic and geopolitical landscape, Canada should adopt a mission-critical approach to trade diversification and infrastructure deployment. However, pace should be balanced with prudence. Meaningful consultations with Indigenous rights holders and other communities will be indispensable to our success. Overall, for Canada to seize trade opportunities in the coming years, it must embrace a unified, future-oriented vision. Aligning federal and provincial efforts, while deepening public-private partnerships, will be essential to developing a trade network that is well-equipped to meet the demands of today and tomorrow. About The Conference Board of Canada The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on Twitter @ConfBoardofCda.
Cision Canada
04-06-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Provincial Economies Hampered by Lower Immigration and Consumer Confidence Français
OTTAWA, ON, June 4, 2025 /CNW/ - Although inflation has improved and monetary policy has become less restrictive, growth prospects for the provinces have been significantly weighed down by trade disruption, according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. "While consumers are benefiting from lower inflation and eased borrowing costs, consumer confidence has been at record lows this year," according to Richard Forbes, Principal Economist at The Conference Board of Canada. "Similarly, despite tariffs being paused or scaled back by the U.S. administration, business confidence has decreased and will take time to recover." Alberta's economy remains vulnerable to resource-driven uncertainty and will see a small decline in business investment this year, primarily due to lower oil prices. However, the province is expected to see strong gains in employment, helping real GDP to increase 1.4 per cent in 2025 and a further 2.2 per cent in 2026. Saskatchewan is highly exposed to Chinese tariffs hitting the agricultural sector, though the medium-term outlook for the province is supported by potash and uranium mining. Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.4 per cent in 2025 and a further 2.4 per cent in 2026. Newfoundland and Labrador's export sector will contribute to growth thanks to rising oil output. However, it will be the only province to see a decline in employment, largely due to a weak demographic outlook. Real GDP is forecast to increase 1.2 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.6 per cent in 2026. British Columbia is expected to see strong gains in consumer spending supported by strengthening interprovincial migration, which will provide a partial counterbalance to weaker international migration. Real GDP in the province is anticipated to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025 and an additional 1.7 per cent in 2026. Manitoba is expected to see continued population and employment growth in the coming years. This, along with a drought-free agricultural season and a healthy construction sector could offset weakness in other sectors. Real GDP is expected to increase 1.1 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.9 per cent in 2026. Nova Scotia will be negatively impacted by slower international migration, which coupled with a limited inventory of major projects will limit real GDP growth to 1.0 per cent in 2025 before increasing a further 1.4 per cent in 2026. Ontario's economy is heavily exposed to tariffs on auto and steel manufacturers. It will, however, be one of the few provinces that sees growth in residential investment. Real GDP is expected to increase by 0.8 per cent in 2025 and an additional 2.1 per cent in 2026. Prince Edward Island is anticipated to lead the country in employment growth and will see strong housing investment. Real GDP will grow by 0.7 per cent in 2025 and an additional 1.7 per cent in 2026. Investment growth in New Brunswick is expected to remain weak in the coming years, while the province will also see a contraction in population, in large part due to cuts in permanent and temporary immigration streams. Real GDP is expected to grow just 0.6 per cent this year, before increasing an additional 1.4 per cent in 2026. Hampered by weak business investment, aluminum tariffs and unfavourable demographics, Quebec's economy is forecast to grow by just 0.6 per cent in 2025 and a further 1.6 per cent in 2026. About The Conference Board of Canada The Conference Board of Canada is the country's leading independent research organization. Since 1954, The Conference Board of Canada has been providing research that supports evidence-based decision making to solve Canada's toughest problems. Follow The Conference Board of Canada on X @ConfBoardofCda. For more information on our impact, please visit the link here.
