4 days ago
Democrats' Chances of Flipping Joni Ernst's GOP Senate Seat in Iowa—Polls
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Democrat Jackie Norris jumped into the Iowa Senate race to challenge GOP Senator Joni Ernst on Tuesday in a race Democrats are hoping they can make competitive next November.
Bryan Kraber, Ernst's campaign manager, told Newsweek Iowans will "reject this Obama-era bureaucrat" in a statement responding to Norris' candidacy.
Newsweek also reached out to Norris' campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats are facing a challenging Senate map ahead of the midterms, despite hopes that President Donald Trump's diminishing approval rating could fuel a 2018-style "blue wave" across the country.
The party has to turn to states like Iowa, a former battleground that has shifted rightward over the past decade, as potential flip opportunities if they have any hope of taking back control of the upper chamber.
Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008 and backed Trump in each of his three presidential bids—including by 13 points last November, an indication of how Republican the state has become. Nonetheless, Democrats remain hopeful that a strong national environment, as well as backlash over Ernst's recent Medicaid comments, can make the race more competitive than expected.
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst speaks during The Hill & Valley Forum 2025 at The U.S. Capitol Visitor Center on April 30, 2025, in Washington.
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst speaks during The Hill & Valley Forum 2025 at The U.S. Capitol Visitor Center on April 30, 2025, in 137 Ventures/Founders Fund/Jacob Helberg
What To Know
Norris emphasized her experience as a teacher and school board member in a video announcing her candidacy released on Tuesday.
"As a teacher and a school board member, you see the invisible burdens families are carrying," she said. "Take the Medicaid cuts. Who is it impacting? Middle class families right now, they can't afford to put food on the table. We have to find a way to make things more affordable for families."
Early polls of the race suggest Ernst will have an advantage in Iowa.
A Public Policy Polling survey found that Ernst would lead a generic Democrat by about two percentage points—45 percent to 43 percent, with 12 percent still unsure. However, the poll did not ask voters about specific Democratic candidates.
The survey of 568 Iowa voters was taken from June 2 to June 3.
A Data for Progress poll from May found that Ernst would have a lead over most Democratic candidates on an informed ballot. When asked about Norris, voters preferred Ernst by about six points (50 percent to 44 percent).
Democrat Nathan Sage fared better, leading Ernst by about two points (47 percent to 45 percent). Ernst also led State Representative J.D. Scholten by six points (49 percent to 43 percent) and State Senator Zach Wahls by 10 points (52 percent to 42 percent).
The poll surveyed 779 likely voters from May 7 to May 12.
Republicans are favored to hold the Iowa Senate seat, according to Kalshi betting odds, which give the GOP a 74 percent chance and Democrats a 26 percent chance of winning next November.
Outside of Iowa, Democrats view the Maine seat held by Senator Susan Collins and the open North Carolina seat as their best opportunities to pickup a win in a GOP-held seat next November. Maine backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points, while North Carolina backed Trump by about three points last November.
Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to win multiple double-digit Trump states like Iowa, Ohio or Texas to win back control of the Senate. Democrats are also defending seats in Georgia and Michigan, both of which backed Trump last year.
What People Are Saying
Bryan Kraber told Newsweek: "Our state is ruby red because Iowans reject higher taxes, open borders, and woke ideology, just like they will reject this Obama-era bureaucrat"
Democratic hopeful Jackie Norris wrote in a press release: "Red versus blue isn't fixing anything. Iowa needs a Senator who doesn't just talk tough but rolls up their sleeves, and has the grit and experience to actually get something done."
Sabato Crystal Ball forecasters J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik wrote in a June update: "In 2014, [Ernst] won as part of a broader GOP wave—and she got help from a gaffe-prone opponent. Six years later, she won reelection as Trump was carrying Iowa by a strong margin (Ernst ran a little bit behind Trump). It's possible that 2026 could be like 2018: Iowa did not have a Senate election that year, but Democrats did end up winning three of the state's four U.S. House seats that year, and we suspect that if Iowa had had a Senate election, it likely at least would have been close."
What Happens Next
Ernst has not confirmed her plans for the 2026 election. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball consider the race to be Likely Republican.
