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Zawya
21-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Equatorial Guinea Economic Update: Managing Equatorial Guinea's Wealth for Sustainable Growth and Development
The World Bank issued today the 2025 Equatorial Guinea Economic Update which analyzes the country's recent economic developments and outlook and highlights the importance of a comprehensive accounting of wealth and the role of human, physical, and natural capital in shaping sustainable growth and development, with a focus on the value of forest ecosystem services. Equatorial Guinea's economy grew by an estimated 0.9% in 2024 (compared to 5.1% in 2023), with higher contributions from the industrial and service sectors. Inflation increased from 2.4% to 3.4% between 2023 and 2024. Soaring food prices and sluggish growth along with limited employment opportunities contributed to rising poverty, with an estimated 57% of the population living below the poverty line ($6.85 in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity) in 2024. Fiscal and external balances deteriorated in 2024, mainly due to declining hydrocarbon export earnings, while debt-to-GDP ratio declined thanks to the authorities' efforts to clear arrears. This year's report shows that Equatorial Guinea's produced capital increased 100-fold between 1995 and 2020, bolstered by public investments following major oil and gas discoveries. However, capital accumulation has slowed since the end of the oil boom. While education and health outcomes have improved in Equatorial Guinea in recent years, additional efforts are needed to bring the country's human capital outcomes in line with countries of a similar income level. Despite a 30% decrease in nonrenewable natural capital from 2005 to 2020, the hydrocarbon sector continues to dominate the economy, accounting for over 80% of revenues and nearly 46% of GDP in 2024. 'Equatorial Guinea has achieved notable advancements over the past few decades. Leveraging its wealth in natural resources, especially oil, the country has experienced substantial economic growth, considerable infrastructure development, and improvements in certain social indicators,' said Juan Diego Alonso, the new World Bank Group Resident Representative for Equatorial Guinea. 'However, given the decline in the hydrocarbon sector, it is imperative to implement comprehensive reforms to diversify the economy, utilizing the nation's rich assets including the forestry sector.' The forest cover in Equatorial Guinea decreased from an estimated 97% in 2000 to 94.5% in 2020. While forest provisioning services—such as wood, fuelwood, and wild resources—have increased and remain vital for rural livelihoods and economic activity, critical regulating services like carbon sequestration and sediment control are under growing threat due to forest loss and degradation. It is critical to maximize forest ecosystem services by adopting a holistic strategy that integrates land-use planning, sustainable agriculture, access to clean energy, and sustainable tourism. The report emphasizes the need for increased international support for Congo Basin countries, including Equatorial Guinea, to ensure adequate compensation for their forest preservation efforts and support the transformation of carbon retention services into tangible benefits. ' Equatorial Guinea can boost growth and job creation by leveraging forest ecosystem services in wood processing, ecotourism, and agriculture sectors. However, this will require continued investments and reforms to create an enabling environment,' said Djeneba Doumbia, Country Economist for Equatorial Guinea and lead author of the report. Download the Equatorial Guinea Economic Update 2025 in English. Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The World Bank Group.
Hans India
21-07-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Here is why India's declining consumption inequality deserves recognition
Therecent decline in India's consumption-based Gini coefficient—from 28.8 in 2011-12 to 25.5 in 2022-23, as reported by the World Bank—has prompted considerable scrutiny, particularly when juxtaposed with income-based estimates from the World Inequality Database (WID), which peg India's Gini at an ostensibly alarming 62 in 2023. Reconciling this apparent dissonance necessitates a closer interrogation of the underlying metrics, data sources, and conceptual frameworks. What follows is a reasoned engagement with the criticism—one that distinguishes methodological incompatibilities from substantive economic realities and highlights the perils of conflating fundamentally distinct measures of inequality. At the core of this divergence is a critical conceptual distinction: the difference between consumption inequality and income inequality. In a country like India—characterised by a large informal workforce, extensive in-kind transfers, and a rapidly expanding welfare architecture—income is often volatile, underreported, or difficult to capture comprehensively. Consumption, by contrast, tends to be smoother over time and more reflective of actual living standards. The World Bank's Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) adopts this logic, using either disposable income or consumption expenditure depending on national context. Firstly, it is worth pointing out that the World Bank in its paper titled 'The World Bank's New Inequality Indicator' gives a way of converting consumption gini to income gini and vice versa. The bank estimated that the average ratio of income-to-consumption Gini coefficients across 84 country-years where data was available for both is 1.13. Applying this directly to India's consumption-based Gini of25.5 yields an approximate income Gini of 28.8. This still places India at 12th, even under income-equivalent assumptions. This simple approximation gives a way of comparing welfare types within PIP database. This raises a pertinent question: why has this not been more widely acknowledged? The answer perhaps lies in the tendency to selectively emphasise outlier estimates. When the simple approximation given is used for comparison across nations, India's inequality even when measured in income terms is significantly lower than the United States and UK. Among the 48 nations where welfare approach is consumption based; India ranks third. India's consumption-based Gini coefficient of 25.5 in the PIP database is also internationally striking. China's consumption of Gini, for instance, stands at 35.7, according to the same database and using the same welfare concept. This 10-point difference is significant. Secondly, why is the impact of large-scale social welfare schemes conspicuously spared from criticism? In a country like India, where large-scale social welfare programmes—such as subsidized food, LPG, housing, rural employment, health insurance, and direct cash transfers—have significantly boosted the living standards of the poor, consumption will inevitably be higher and more equitably distributed than income. These forms of public provisioning raise welfare especially in rural and informal segments. In BE 2025, the Union Government's spending on beneficiary schemes amounts to ₹7.1 lakh crore, and states together add another ₹7.4 lakh crore. This totals to nearly ₹14.5 lakh crore. According to PLFS data, the average monthly earning by regular salaried worker is approx. Rs 21,000 and approx. Rs 14,000 for self-employed. The average earning per day by a casual labourer is Rs 433. Using these approximations and accounting for dependency assuming a family of four, this translates to an income of Rs 65,000 per capita. Assuming 80 per cent of the total beneficiary schemes reaches bottom 50 per cent, this translates into Rs 15,000 per year/per person accounting for leakages and overlaps through direct and indirect benefits. This uplift of approx. 20% in effective resources translates into consumption. Thus, even under these conservative assumptions, this significantly compresses effective inequality. These interventions have also led to a dramatic fall in poverty, with the extreme poverty rate dropping from 16.2 per cent in 2011–12 to 2.3 per cent in 2022–23. At the lower-middle-income line of $3.65/day, poverty fell from 61.8 per cent to 28.1 per cent. Before accepting WID's estimates at face value, shouldn't we ask what exactly they are measuring? Coming onto the WID database, their benchmark income concept is: 'Pre-tax, post-replacement national income', that is, before taxes and transfers, except for social insurance components like pensions and unemployment benefits. This means that they exclude most non-contributory welfare transfers — like India's Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT), food subsidies, LPG schemes, Ayushman Bharat, rural housing, and more. India's social protection system relies much more heavily on non-contributory transfers than contributory insurance. These are not counted in the WID's income concept, even though they materially raise real income and purchasing power. This creates a systematic downward bias when WID measures inequality in India by ignoring the redistributive effect of these targeted schemes and Inflating the apparent concentration of national income at the top. So, under WID's income inequality framework, we are essentially saying that major upliftment schemes in India — have zero impact on measured inequality. Secondly, WID relies heavily on tax records to compile its database. Now, even if we look at tax records, Gini coefficient estimated using ITR data of taxable income of individuals shows that individual income inequality has decreased from AY15 (FY14) to AY23 (FY22) from 0.472 to 0.402. 43.6 per cent Individual ITR filers belonging to the Income group of less than Rs four lakh in AY15 (FY14) have left the lowest income group and shifted upwards. A comparison of disparity in income during FY14 and FY23 shows that there is a clear rightward shift in the income distribution curve signifying people in lower income brackets are increasing their income to converge towards their share in population. The bell-shaped curve for AY24 speaks more!! In FY14, the share of the top one per cent in total income was 1.64 per cent, which fell to 0.77 per cent in FY21. Furthermore, tax buoyancy of 1.1 alongside falling cost of collection shows better compliance and hence must not be misread as rising inequality. If India's official tax data shows improving progressivity, and large-scale consumption surveys indicate a sustained reduction in inequality, then it is worth asking why WID estimates tell such a different story. To argue that India remains deeply unequal based solely on selectively elevated income estimates is much like claiming the country lacks water because Rajasthan faces water scarcity. Inequality, like deprivation, is not monolithic—it varies across dimensions, regions, and measurement tools but that does not invalidate the broader progress being made. Any evaluation that ignores these dynamics in favour of a narrow, partial view risks obscuring the very progress it seeks to critique. As we move forward, two takeaways are critical. First, improved reporting is not the same as increased disparity—and we must resist reacting to shadows cast by better data. Second, and most importantly, welfare economics must always return to its core question: what improves the lived experience of the bottom half? In that, India's story over the past decade is less about divergence at the top and more about convergence at the base—quiet, broad, and measurable in the resources people use. (The authors are a member of the 16th Finance Commission and Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India and the other an Economist at State Bank of India. Views are personal)
Malaysian Reserve
17-07-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
British Tech Firm Skyral to Fight Mongolia's Deadly Pollution with Advanced Traffic Modelling
Skyral signs USD 1.7 million contract with Mongolia's capital city to improve transport network Advanced traffic modelling projected to save $240M–$520M by 2030 while reducing pollution deaths Technology deployment supports Mongolia's Vision 2050 transport infrastructure program worth $250M–$750M in potential benefits The World Bank estimates the annual economic cost of the country's road crashes and congestion is $438 million, equivalent to 3.9% of Mongolia's GDP LONDON, July 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — British software company Skyral has signed a USD 1.7m pilot deal with Mongolia's capital city, Ulaanbaatar, to support efforts in reducing traffic congestion and air pollution. The deal, with the potential to prevent deaths, was signed today by the Mayor of Ulaanbaatar and the city's First Deputy Mayor for Economic Development and Infrastructure. The five-month pilot, with the expectation of a three-year extension, will help Ulaanbaatar become a '20-minute city'. The goals of the 20-minute city include ensuring that people can access work, education, and essential services more efficiently through new infrastructure, such as the Circular Expressway, new tramway lines, and a metro line. Nick Blair, Chairman & Co Founder of Skyral, said: 'Skyral is proud to support Ulaanbaatar on its journey to becoming a 20-minute city.' 'Our technology will provide the capital's leaders with the insights needed to create a safer, healthier, and more efficient city for their citizens.' 'By partnering with Skyral, Ulaanbaatar will become one of the first cities in the world to implement this unique combination of massive scale transportation modelling and human behaviour simulation to efficiently tackle its traffic crisis.' 'This project showcases the versatility of our proprietary, breakthrough British technology, and its application in resolving urgent problems around the globe.' With an estimated 7,000-plus Mongolians dying each year from polluted air, urban city centres are the most affected. City Officials have identified traffic congestion, partly driven by increased migration to the capital, as a direct cause. Additionally, the World Bank estimates the annual economic cost of the country's road crashes and congestion is $438 million, equivalent to 3.9% of Mongolia's GDP. To combat both traffic congestion and the resulting human health crisis, Skyral will use their modelling & simulation platform to help city planners develop a deeper understanding of population behaviours and effectively map transport network development. Their unique development of digital twin technology, overlaid with AI-enabled modelling, will not just simulate potential congestion, but also model why and how congestion occurs by analysing commuter movements, school-run routes, and retail and leisure activity among the city's 1.8 million residents. Khishgeegiin Nyambaatar, Mayor of Ulaanbaatar, said: 'This year, our city will implement projects aimed at reducing traffic congestion, developing multimodal public transportation, and reducing air pollution.' 'We have already announced international tenders in phases for major infrastructure projects such as the Tuul Expressway, the Circular Expressway, two tramway lines, and a metro line.' 'To implement these projects, all engineering planning will be based on AI-powered big data models. That is why we have initiated collaboration with Skyral to develop Ulaanbaatar's data-driven digital models.' The integration of Skyral's city-scale modelling is a game changer for city planners, enabling better understanding of how the city and its inhabitants react to future infrastructure construction and new transport options, helping to reduce accidents. Skyral has built modelling and simulation software for governments around the world since 2016, now working with the UK, US, and NATO partners. Last year, Skyral diversified its services beyond the defence sector with 60 per cent of the company's contracts stemming from non-government enterprises. For more information, visit: Images to download here. Notes to Editors About Skyral Founded in June 2023, Skyral has rapidly established itself as a leader in creating virtual representations of complex environments, enabling faster and smarter decision-making for its clients. Skyral's approach combines data visualisation, artificial intelligence, and digital twin capabilities to provide holistic solutions tailored to user needs. Skyral is one of the world's leading strategic modelling and simulation (M&S) software companies, using digital twin technology to transform defence, national security, healthcare and infrastructure globally. By integrating proprietary data with public infrastructure and human behaviour models, Skyral offers comprehensive insights that empower decision-makers across various industries. Photo –
Time of India
02-07-2025
- General
- Time of India
World Bank delegation inspects Saraswati River and recharge system in Haryana
KURUKSHETRA: A high-level team from the on Wednesday visited the Saraswati River and its recharge systems in Haryana's Bohli and Isargarh villages in Kurukshetra district. The team included The World Bank's Joop Stoutjesdijk, Lead Water Resources Management Specialist, and Bogachan Benli (PhD), Senior Irrigation and Drainage Specialist. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now They were accompanied by officials from the Haryana's Groundwater Department and irrigation team. During the inspection, the team reviewed the ongoing Saraswati river recharge initiatives and praised the effectiveness of Haryana's irrigation infrastructure and water management, under the leadership of Chief Minister (CM) Nayab Singh Saini. Deputy Chairman of the Haryana Sarasvati Heritage Development Board (HSHDB), Dhuman Singh Kirmach, shared that eleven recharge reservoirs have been constructed along the Saraswati River. These have contributed significantly to rising groundwater levels in the region. He noted that for the past three years, water has continuously flowed in the river, which has brought immense relief and happiness to local farmers, making the river a 'blessing' for the area. Kirmach also explained that the HSHDB, originally established under former CM and now Union minister Manohar Lal Khattar and now actively supported by CM Nayab Saini, is working towards ensuring a year-round flow of water in the river. Currently, water flows for about six to seven months annually. To achieve continuous flow, the HSHDB is constructing a dam and barrage at Adi Badri and planning a reservoir over 350 acres. Kirmach expressed confidence that the vision of year-round flow in Saraswati is not far from realization. He emphasized the cultural and civilizational significance of the Saraswati River, linking it to the origins of the ancient Saraswati-Indus Valley Civilization. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now 'This river is not just water; it is a part of our heritage,' he said. Dhuman Singh claimed, 'The identified course of the Saraswati River spans from the Bandarpunch glacier in Uttarakhand, through Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, and reaches the Rann of Kutch in Gujarat. In Haryana, approximately 400 kilometers of the river course — from Bilaspur to the Ottu Headworks in Sirsa — now has flowing water. The river system integrates water from multiple local sources, including the Chautang, Linda, Tangri, Markanda, and Ghaggar rivers. ' World Bank officials commended the recharge systems established along the Saraswati River and lauded the state government's commitment to sustainable river rejuvenation. Senior hydrologist Virender Lamba, executive engineer Ajit Singh, and Navtej Singh were also present during the visit.
Express Tribune
11-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Poverty spike
Listen to article The World Bank's recalibration of global poverty lines has cast a harsh spotlight on Pakistan, estimating that 44.7% of the population, or over 107 million people, live below the lower-middle-income threshold of $4.20/day. Extreme poverty has surged to 16.5% under the revised $3/day line. While blind nationalists may deflect by blaming the worsening statistic on updated benchmarks and revised global calculations, the truth is that the numbers are actually an understatement. The 44.7% figure relies on outdated survey data from 2018-19, before the catastrophic impact of events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, record inflation and economic disarray for the past few years and the 2022 super-floods that submerged a third of the country and displaced millions. You need not be an economist to recognise that, in light of these events, the actual current poverty rate based on the World Bank's metrics is much higher. And even this outdated data tells a story that is relevant today. The restive province of Balochistan, for example, had a poverty rate of almost 70%. Pakistan has also been one of the world's worst performers in combating poverty. India managed to shrink its extreme poverty rate from over 16% in 2012-2013 to under 6% in 2022-2023, despite the increase in the nominal dollar value. Pakistan, on the other hand, saw at least 27 million more people falling under the poverty line. The first step to addressing the problem is getting more reliable data, so that the picture, no matter how brutal, is more accurate. The next step is transformative action, rather than theatrics and name-calling to divert blame for a national failure onto any one party. One of the best ways to address extreme poverty is by strengthening social services, including through cash transfers via BISP, and bolstering human capital via investment in health, nutrition and education. Tax policy reforms are also critical because a social safety net is pointless if it is financed through indirect taxes that squeeze the working poor, rather than the millionaires and billionaires who don't pay their fair share.
