Latest news with #ThomasBarkin
Business Recorder
18 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold slips on easing ME tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty
NEW YORK: Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, weighed down by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,316.47 per ounce, as of 0933 a.m. EDT (1333 GMT). US gold futures slipped 0.4% to $3,329.20. 'Gold has declined over the past few sessions due to de-escalation in the Middle East. Also, adding pressure was the anticipated interest rate cut — eagerly awaited by the market that continues to be delayed amid rising inflation expectations driven by Trump-era tariffs,' said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin cautioned it was hard to know how tariff increases will translate into inflation in the US economy. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said a decision by US President Donald Trump to name a replacement for Fed chair Jerome Powell would have no influence on monetary policy from outside the central bank. Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts totalling 50 basis points this year, starting in September. Gold usually does well during times of uncertainty and inflation, but higher interest rates make it less attractive since it doesn't earn any interest. Data showed the US economy contracted a bit faster than previously thought in the first quarter amid tepid consumer spending, underscoring the distortions caused tariffs. Investors are now eyeing Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. Palladium lost 2.5% to $1,084.41. Platinum climbed to its highest level since September 2014, adding 1.7% to $1,377.62. Internal combustion vehicles are likely to remain relevant for longer as governments delay phase-out targets, and biofuel adoption continues to rely on platinum group metals, said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree. Spot silver was up 0.2% to $36.39.
Fast Company
21 hours ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Fed's Barkin says tariffs will push up inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday tariffs are very likely to push inflation up over coming months, in remarks that said U.S. central bank policy is where it needs to be to deal with what lies ahead. 'I do believe we will see pressure on prices,' Barkin told a gathering of the New York Association for Business Economics. When it comes to tariffs and their impact on price pressures, 'to date, these increases have had only modest effects on measured inflation, but I anticipate more pressure is coming,' amid comments from businesses that they expect to pass at least some of the rise in import taxes imposed by President Donald Trump. 'That said, I don't expect the impact on inflation to be anywhere near as significant as what we just experienced' during the pandemic and there are signs that consumers will try to move away from tariffed goods, which could limit some of the upsides for higher inflation. Last week, the Fed's most recent gathering of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee saw officials leave their overnight target rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.5%. Uncertainty over the outlook is keeping the central bank on the sidelines amid expectations the tariffs will push up inflation this year while depressing growth and hiring. In his remarks, Barkin noted the Fed is facing risks on both its job and inflation mandates. Citing the uncertainty of the outlook, Barkin declined to say where monetary policy is heading, while cautioning there are a number of scenarios in play for the central bank's interest rate target and the exact timing of a rate move matter much less than many expect. While most Fed officials are in a wait-and-see mode and Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that message this week in testimony before Congress, some officials on the Board of Governors have said they view tariffs as a one-time price increase and are open to cutting short-term interest rates at the late July FOMC meeting. Futures markets believe the Fed will cut rates at the September FOMC meeting. Barkin told reporters after his speech that policymakers should never take any action off the table, while adding he's still seeking data to know what to do with interest rate policy. 'Given the strength in today's economy, we have time to track developments patiently and allow the visibility to improve,' Barkin said, adding, 'when it does, we are well positioned to address whatever the economy will require.' Barkin also said that given inflation had been on a cooling trend at the onset of the tariff regime, hiking rates to contain price pressures 'doesn't seem like the topic of the day.' Barkin said that as the economy now stands things look pretty good and recent inflation data was 'encouraging.' He said job growth has been 'healthy.'
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Fed's Barkin says tariffs will start pushing up inflation
NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Thursday tariffs are very likely to push inflation up over coming months, in remarks that said central bank policy is where it needs to be to deal with what lies ahead. 'I do believe we will see pressure on prices,' Barkin said in the text of remarks prepared for delivery before a gathering of New York Association for Business Economics. When it comes to tariffs and their impact on price pressures, 'to date, these increases have had only modest effects on measured inflation, but I anticipate more pressure is coming,' amid comments from businesses that they expect to pass at least some of the rise in import taxes imposed by President Donald Trump. 'That said, I don't expect the impact on inflation to be anywhere near as significant as what we just experienced' during the pandemic and there are signs that consumers will try to move away from tariffed goods, which could limit some of the upsides for higher inflation. Last week, the Fed's most recent gathering of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee saw officials leave their overnight target rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.5%. Uncertainty over the outlook is keeping the central bank on the sidelines amid expectations the tariffs will push up inflation this year while depressing growth and hiring. In his remarks, Barkin noted the Fed is facing risks on both its job and inflation mandates. Citing the uncertainty of the outlook Barkin declined to say where monetary policy is heading. But he said, 'given the strength in today's economy, we have time to track developments patiently and allow the visibility to improve,' adding, 'when it does, we are well positioned to address whatever the economy will require.' Barkin said that as the economy now stands things look pretty good and recent inflation data was 'encouraging.' He said job growth has been 'healthy.'
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Exclusive: Fed's Barkin: No rush to cut, can't dismiss inflation risks from tariffs
WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday there's no rush to cut interest rates given the still-unresolved risk that new import taxes might raise inflation, and with the U.S. job market and consumer spending holding up. "I don't think the data gives us any rush to cut...I am very conscious that we've not been at our inflation target for four years," Barkin said in a Reuters interview, noting that businesses in his district still expect price increases to come later in the year as new tariffs take effect, and the fact that import duties may rise even further in coming months. In addition, he said, the jobless rate remains low at 4.2%, and firms don't appear on the cusp of major layoffs that would undercut the Fed's other goal of maintaining maximum employment. Spending "is holding up fine. It's not frothy. It's not weak." "Nothing is burning on either side such that it suggests there's a rush to act," Barkin said in his first public comments following a Fed meeting this week at which the central bank held its policy rate steady in the current range between 4.25% and 4.5%. "I'm not in a mood to ignore a spike in inflation were it to have to see if it comes. "I'm comfortable with where we inflation is still over target. Being modestly restrictive is a good way to address that." Barkin's comments come at a moment of exaggerated uncertainty for the Fed and the U.S. economy, with tariffs already higher on some goods and potentially increasing again as soon as next month when the Trump administration has set a July 9 deadline for other nations to either strike trade deals with the U.S. or face possibly exorbitant taxes on their goods. Only one deal has been struck so far, leaving the Fed in a muddle over what the final tax rates might be, and how they might be divided among foreign producers, U.S. importers, and the retail price charged to consumers. There's debate as well about whether any price impact will be a one-time shock or create more enduring inflation, and whether it could lead to supply chain issues that slow growth and increase joblessness. The Trump administration says the tariffs will ultimately help the U.S. economy, and the president has demanded the Fed slash rates immediately. New Fed economic projections this week, by contrast, anticipate slower growth and higher inflation. Yet those projections also showed policymakers still anticipate rate cuts later in the year - a sign they do feel tariffs will raise prices but not in a persistent way. Barkin noted the close split of opinion, with 10 policymakers seeing two or three quarter-point cuts this year, and nine seeing one or none. "There are two perfectly reasonable views that are articulated there," Barkin said, based on expectations about the economy and inflation, and Fed officials' sense of which risks are more worrisome. The median projection is for two quarter-point cuts this year. But Barkin said that, in his mind, there are several compelling narratives for what might happen in coming months, from tariffs being passed along fully to consumers and raising prices, to businesses trying to absorb them through job cuts that raise unemployment. With key tariff decisions still pending, "I don't have a lot of conviction about where (trade) policy is going to be. I just have to accept that," he said. "I also don't have conviction on what the impact is going to be on our mandate variables" of inflation and unemployment. "There will be some inflationary impact. It's hard to know how much." Businesses in his district, which runs from Maryland through South Carolina, tell him they are wrestling with the same questions, and remain largely on the sidelines when it comes to both capital investment and major labor market decisions, a static environment that could slow growth but also keep the unemployment rate relatively stable in a "low-hiring-low-firing" equilibrium. Sentiment has improved since April, he said, when massive and since-delayed tariffs on China put businesses in a tailspin wondering about access to products and product inputs. But the final outcome remains up in the air. "I'd say the overwhelming reaction we're still getting is wait and see," Barkin said. "Wait and see is not put your foot on the brakes. It's just not put your foot in the gas."
Zawya
16-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
TSX futures rise on continued trade optimism
Futures for Canada's main stock index edged higher on Friday, as recent de-escalation of the global trade war and softer U.S. inflation data supported risk appetite. June futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.16% at 6:21 a.m. ET (1021 GMT). Canada's main stock index rose to a record high on Thursday, helped by industrial and financial shares, and is on track for a sixth straight week of gains if current trends hold on the day. Investors cheered the 90-day pause in the U.S.-China tariff dispute, which reduces the global recession risks, and the bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK a week ago, igniting hopes for potential trade deals with the U.S. Earlier this week, data showed U.S. consumer prices had rebounded moderately in April. Markets will also focus on remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, with at least two officials, including Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin slated to speak later in the day. In commodities, oil prices extended declines, but are heading for a second consecutive weekly gain due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions. Gold prices dropped and were poised for their steepest weekly decline in six months, while copper prices edged lower but were set for a weekly rise. In corporate news, Canadian oil and gas producer Strathcona said late Thursday it plans to launch a C$5.93 billion ($4.25 billion) takeover bid for peer MEG Energy. (Reporting by Sanchayaita Roy; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
