Latest news with #ThomasFuller
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Should You Buy F5 Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
CANADA - 2025/01/30: In this photo illustration, the F5, Inc. logo is seen displayed on a smartphone ... More screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) F5 (NASDAQ:FFIV) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, after market close. For event-driven traders, understanding the stock's historical behavior around earnings releases can provide valuable insights, though actual results compared to consensus expectations will ultimately dictate market reaction. Looking at the past five years, F5's stock has shown a positive one-day return in 58% of instances following earnings announcements. When positive, the median gain was 6.2%, with a maximum one-day positive return of 13.0%. This indicates a historical tendency for significant upward movement after favorable reports. Event-driven traders typically employ two main strategies when approaching earnings: Analysts expect F5 to report earnings of $3.50 per share on revenues of $752.6 million for the upcoming quarter. This would mark an increase compared to the year-ago quarter, where the company reported earnings of $3.36 per share on sales of $695.5 million. From a fundamental perspective, F5 currently has a market capitalization of $17 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $2.9 billion in revenue, demonstrating operational profitability with $730 million in operating profits and a net income of $621 million. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – QuantumScape: QS Stock To $0?See earnings reaction history of all stocks F5's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below. FFIV 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. FFIC Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like F5, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Celcuity: What's Happening With CELC Stock?
CANADA - 2025/07/28: In this photo illustration, the Celcuity logo is seen displayed on a smartphone ... More screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Celcuity stock (NASDAQ: CELC), a clinical-stage biotechnology company, experienced an extraordinary 3x surge in a single trading session, with shares rocketing from approximately $14 to a peak of $46 before stabilizing around $37. This dramatic price movement was triggered by positive topline results from the PIK3CA wild-type cohort of the company's Phase 3 VIKTORIA-1 clinical trial for gedatolisib, a targeted therapy for HR+/HER2- breast cancer. The clinical results demonstrated that gedatolisib, when combined with one or two other medicines, significantly reduced the risk of disease progression or death compared to the control group. This outcome validates the company's therapeutic approach and positions the drug for potential regulatory submission. Big Commercial Opportunity Gedatolisib represents a substantial commercial opportunity with peak sales potential exceeding $2 billion. The drug targets hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, a significant patient population with limited treatment options after endocrine therapy resistance develops. The FDA has already granted gedatolisib Breakthrough Therapy Designation, which could expedite the regulatory review process. The company plans to file for FDA approval in Q4 2025, with additional Phase 3 trials (VIKTORIA-2) evaluating the drug as a first-line treatment already underway. This multi-indication strategy could expand the addressable market significantly. Financial Flexibility As a pre-revenue biotech company, Celcuity operates with an expected cash burn profile, recording operational cash outflows of $127 million over the last twelve months. The company recently announced its intention to conduct public offerings totaling $225 million, comprising $150 million in convertible senior notes due 2031 and $75 million in common stock. The proceeds will help fund clinical trials and research & development activities. This substantial capital raise aims to bolster financial flexibility and support ongoing oncology research, providing significant runway to advance clinical programs toward commercialization. But There Are Risks While Celcuity has shown promising clinical results, several significant risks could impact its future trajectory and the successful development and commercialization of its lead drug, gedatolisib. Investment Outlook The positive Phase 3 results represent a significant validation of Celcuity's platform and therapeutic approach. With regulatory submission planned for Q4 2025 and Breakthrough Therapy Designation already secured, the company appears well-positioned for potential approval. However, investors should carefully weigh the substantial commercial opportunity against the inherent risks associated with biotech development and regulatory approval processes. The current valuation reflects significant optimism about regulatory success, making the investment sensitive to any setbacks in the approval timeline or additional clinical requirements from regulators. In fact, CELC stock is down 10% in extended trading post the dramatic 3x surge on Monday, July 28. See, regulatory risk is just a small part of the risk assessment framework we apply while constructing the 30-stock Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Time To Buy Centene Stock?
CANADA - 2025/04/06: In this photo illustration, the Centene Corporation logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Centene (NYSE:CNC) recently reported a surprise loss of $0.16 per share for Q2, significantly missing analyst expectations of $0.23 per share. This downturn is primarily attributed to a continued increase in medical costs for government-backed insurance plans, evidenced by a 540 basis point year-over-year surge in its health benefit ratio to 93% in Q2. Despite these disappointing results, CNC stock rose 6% on Friday, July 25. This positive market reaction followed management's optimistic forecast for a much-improved performance in 2026. Even with Friday's gain, CNC stock remains down over 50% year-to-date, largely due to ongoing concerns about rising medical costs. While Centene certainly appears to be a risky investment given its recent performance, we believe it presents a compelling buying opportunity at its current price of around $28, primarily due to its very low valuation. Our conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis comparing CNC's current valuation with its operational performance in recent years and its historical and current financial health. Our assessment of Centene across key parameters—Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience—indicates a moderate overall operating performance and financial condition. However, for investors who seek lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. How Does Centene's Valuation Look vs. The S&P 500? Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, CNC stock looks cheap compared to the broader market. How Have Centene's Revenues Grown Over Recent Years? Centene's Revenues have seen notable growth over recent years. How Profitable Is Centene? Centene's profit margins are considerably worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe. Does Centene Look Financially Stable? Centene's balance sheet looks weak. How Resilient Is CNC Stock During A Downturn? CNC stock has seen an impact that was slightly better than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on CNC stock? Our dashboard – CNC Fell 50% In A Month. Past Crashes Went Deeper – has a detailed analysis of how the stock performed during and after previous market crashes. Putting All The Pieces Together: What It Means For CNC Stock In summary, Centene's performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows: While Centene has demonstrated a moderate performance across our key analytical parameters, its current valuation of 0.1x revenues is particularly attractive. We could be wrong in our assessment and investors might continue to assign a low valuation multiple to Centene due to ongoing concerns about rising medical costs. However, for investors with a 3-5 year investment horizon, we believe CNC stock offers a compelling entry point. Furthermore, the average analyst price target of $44 suggests a significant upside of over 55% from its current levels. While CNC stock looks promising, investing in a single stock can be risky. On the other hand, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
How Will Norfolk Southern Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CANADA - 2025/03/14: In this photo illustration, the Norfolk Southern (NS) logo is seen displayed on ... More a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) is set to release its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Over the past five years, the stock of Norfolk Southern has displayed an equal distribution in one-day returns after earnings announcements. In 50% of cases, the stock experienced a positive one-day return, with a median increase of 2.3%. In contrast, in the remaining 50% of instances, it recorded a negative one-day return, with a median drop of -1.8%. While the actual results compared to consensus projections will be critical, understanding these historical trends can give event-driven traders an advantage. There are two main strategies to utilize this data: Analysts' consensus projections for the upcoming quarter suggest earnings of $3.30 per share on revenues of $3.13 billion. This is compared to last year's quarter earnings of $3.06 per share on revenues of $3.04 billion, indicating an anticipated rise in both profitability and revenue. From a fundamental viewpoint, Norfolk Southern currently has a market capitalization of $63 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $12 billion in revenue, and was operationally profitable with $4.9 billion in operating profits and a net income of $3.3 billion. Nonetheless, if you are looking for upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its inception. View earnings reaction history for all stocks Historical Probabilities of Positive Post-Earnings Return for Norfolk Southern Insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below. NSC 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. NSC Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Find out more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which includes all 3— the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000)—providing impressive returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a smoother experience than holding a stock like Norfolk Southern, take into account the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
ASML Stock: What Are The Latest Developents?
CANADA - 2025/07/17: In this photo illustration, the ASML Holding logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) ASML (NASDAQ:ASML), the prominent Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, has experienced a stock drop of nearly 5% over the past week, remaining down by 11% in the last month due to trade tensions that have prompted the company to issue a softer financial forecast. In its Q2 2025 earnings report, ASML cautioned that it could no longer assure that its revenue would increase in 2026, overshadowing an otherwise strong quarter. Revenue for the third quarter is anticipated to be between 7.4 to 7.9 billion euros, slightly under expectations. The gross margin is estimated to be around 52%, down from a prior estimate of 51% to 53%. This mixed prediction contrasts with the overall semiconductor market, which continues to show resilience. For instance, TSMC, the largest semiconductor fabrication firm in the world, often regarded as a barometer for the chip industry, reported robust quarterly results and raised its sales growth forecast for 2025 to 30% in dollar terms. Notably, ASML is a unique company. It manufactures what is arguably the most advanced piece of manufacturing technology and plays an essential role in producing the state-of-the-art chips that power everything from smartphones to AI data centers. Considering its pivotal position in the semiconductor value chain, could this be a long-term buying opportunity? Trade And Geopolitical Tensions President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU, which could significantly affect semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML. Located in the Netherlands, ASML ships its products worldwide, with key clients such as Intel in the U.S. and Asia's TSMC and Samsung Electronics – both of which also have manufacturing facilities in the United States. The proposed tariffs might increase costs for customers importing ASML's high-value tools into the U.S. For context, ASML's latest generation High-NA EUV machines can cost up to $400 million per unit. Additionally, ASML maintains manufacturing operations in San Diego, which could also be subject to retaliation through EU tariffs on products sent back to Europe. Importantly, if ASML's clients decide to cut back on capital expenditures, ongoing trade conflicts and export control regulations between the U.S. and China could complicate demand forecasting. As a leading entity in advanced chip manufacturing technology, ASML has also found itself a pawn in the growing U.S.-China technological and trade rivalry, prompting U.S. officials to urge the Dutch government to impose tighter export controls. While the company has been prohibited from selling its most advanced EUV equipment to Chinese clients for several years, new regulations imposed the previous year mandate that the company must secure a license to export any immersion DUV or more advanced systems to China. AI Narrative Drives EUV Demand ASML's flagship product is its extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, which are vital tools for manufacturing the most advanced chips at process nodes of 5 nanometers and smaller. These machines use ultra-short wavelengths of light to carve out circuit designs, making it possible to produce chips that are smaller, faster, and more efficient. EUV technology is crucial for prolonging Moore's Law, a long-standing industry trend of doubling transistor density roughly every two years, enabling chip manufacturers to continue pushing the boundaries of computing performance and cost-efficiency. The demand for ASML's products has surged as semiconductor chips are integrated into a wide array of devices, from computers to vehicles. AI, in particular, has emerged as a significant driver for ASML recently, as the increase in training and operating complex models necessitates the high-performance semiconductors that its machinery facilitates. The company has indicated that several of its major customers are enhancing their EUV capacity to accommodate the rising demand for AI chips. ASML anticipates that EUV tool deployments will increase by around 30% in 2025, indicating a broader industry transition from older Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) technology toward EUV, which could further enhance its revenues. Is The Stock A Buy? ASML stock is trading at 27 times the estimated earnings for FY2025, which is a reasonable valuation considering ASML's revenues are projected to grow by approximately 14% this year, according to consensus estimates. During the previous quarter, ASML reported net bookings of 5.5 billion euros ($6.4 billion), which is roughly 25% higher than expected, along with a record backlog of 33 billion euros ($38 billion). With lead times of 12 to 18 months for the majority of its products, current orders should genuinely reflect customer confidence into 2026, suggesting strong future revenue growth. Furthermore, the company's dominant position, cutting-edge proprietary technology, and exposure to the generative AI trend could also make the stock appealing. Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which includes the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), yielding strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you seek upside with a more stable performance than an individual stock like ASML, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since inception.
