How Will Norfolk Southern Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) is set to release its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Over the past five years, the stock of Norfolk Southern has displayed an equal distribution in one-day returns after earnings announcements. In 50% of cases, the stock experienced a positive one-day return, with a median increase of 2.3%. In contrast, in the remaining 50% of instances, it recorded a negative one-day return, with a median drop of -1.8%.
While the actual results compared to consensus projections will be critical, understanding these historical trends can give event-driven traders an advantage. There are two main strategies to utilize this data:
Analysts' consensus projections for the upcoming quarter suggest earnings of $3.30 per share on revenues of $3.13 billion. This is compared to last year's quarter earnings of $3.06 per share on revenues of $3.04 billion, indicating an anticipated rise in both profitability and revenue.
From a fundamental viewpoint, Norfolk Southern currently has a market capitalization of $63 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $12 billion in revenue, and was operationally profitable with $4.9 billion in operating profits and a net income of $3.3 billion.
Nonetheless, if you are looking for upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
View earnings reaction history for all stocks
Historical Probabilities of Positive Post-Earnings Return for Norfolk Southern
Insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
NSC 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
NSC Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Find out more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which includes all 3— the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000)—providing impressive returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a smoother experience than holding a stock like Norfolk Southern, take into account the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
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