Latest news with #ThomasPugh
Fashion Network
25-04-2025
- Business
- Fashion Network
Sunshine boosts UK retail sales in March, shorts and tank top sales spike
UK retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% month on month in March 2025, the third consecutive month of rises and something of a surprise after analysts had predicted that they would dip. This follows a rise of 0.7% in February (revised down from a rise of 1% in the last bulletin from the Office for National Statistics). Sales volumes rose by 2.6% over the year to March 2025. And the best news? Clothing and outdoor retailers reported that good weather boosted sales, although these increases were partly offset by falls in supermarket sales. Also, volumes were down by 0.3%, compared with their pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Looking at the quarter, sales volumes rose by 1.6% in Q1 compared to the final quarter of last year and by 1.7% year on year. For the month, non-food stores sales volumes — the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores — rose by 1.7%. And, as mentioned, within non-food stores, clothing stores were the subsector with the strongest growth with retailers saying the unusually sunny weather had an impact. Non-store retailing sales volumes were up on the month, with similar commentary received about the weather, specifically mentioning boosts to clothing and DIY goods. The Met Office climate summaries reported that the UK had its third-sunniest March on record, and reported that March 2025 was warmer and drier than usual. Meanwhile the amount spent online or — online spending values — rose by 2% over the month to March 2025. Sales values also rose by 5.4% year on year. But while analysts were pleased with the figures, they included notes of caution in their assessments. Jacqui Baker, head of retail at consulting firm RSM UK and chair of ICAEW's Retail Group said the numbers 'should provide some reason for optimism in the retail sector. April's increase in National Minimum Wage will also mean consumers have more money in their pocket which should feed through to increased spending. Unfortunately, this good news for retailers might not be enough to offset the significant headwinds of rising employment costs and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. This additional layer of uncertainty will impact purchasing decisions, future supply chains and place further pressure on already squeezed margins.' And Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM, added: 'The third consecutive monthly rise in retail sales volumes in March confirms that consumers returned to stores in the first quarter of this year. However, the world has changed since March with the announcement of US tariffs and the associated huge increase in uncertainty. Indeed, consumer confidence dropped by four points in April.' Jacqueline Windsor, Head of retail at PwC UK thinks March's retail sales 'should be read with care as the ONS adjusts for the impact of Easter and school holidays falling in April this year' and she added that 'ironically, the only thing that the warm dry weather did not seem to help was the high street itself, with penetration of online retail sales increasing from 26.4% in February to 26.8% in March.' Greg Zakowicz, senior e-commerce expert at Omnisend, called the retail recovery 'fragile' but Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, thinks the 'unexpected rise in retail sales may indicate a turning point for retailers'. Meanwhile Deann Evans, MD EMEA at Shopify, said its data showed strong sales of outdoor goods. Summer fashion was also a driver of March sales, with Chino Shorts rising by a huge 530.9% compared to February -- and tank tops (389.3%) and crop tops (387.3%) close behind.
Fashion Network
25-04-2025
- Business
- Fashion Network
Sunshine boosts UK retail sales in March, shorts and tank top sales spike
UK retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% month on month in March 2025, the third consecutive month of rises and something of a surprise after analysts had predicted that they would dip. This follows a rise of 0.7% in February (revised down from a rise of 1% in the last bulletin from the Office for National Statistics). Sales volumes rose by 2.6% over the year to March 2025. And the best news? Clothing and outdoor retailers reported that good weather boosted sales, although these increases were partly offset by falls in supermarket sales. Also, volumes were down by 0.3%, compared with their pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Looking at the quarter, sales volumes rose by 1.6% in Q1 compared to the final quarter of last year and by 1.7% year on year. For the month, non-food stores sales volumes — the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores — rose by 1.7%. And, as mentioned, within non-food stores, clothing stores were the subsector with the strongest growth with retailers saying the unusually sunny weather had an impact. Non-store retailing sales volumes were up on the month, with similar commentary received about the weather, specifically mentioning boosts to clothing and DIY goods. The Met Office climate summaries reported that the UK had its third-sunniest March on record, and reported that March 2025 was warmer and drier than usual. Meanwhile the amount spent online or — online spending values — rose by 2% over the month to March 2025. Sales values also rose by 5.4% year on year. But while analysts were pleased with the figures, they included notes of caution in their assessments. Jacqui Baker, head of retail at consulting firm RSM UK and chair of ICAEW's Retail Group said the numbers 'should provide some reason for optimism in the retail sector. April's increase in National Minimum Wage will also mean consumers have more money in their pocket which should feed through to increased spending. Unfortunately, this good news for retailers might not be enough to offset the significant headwinds of rising employment costs and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. This additional layer of uncertainty will impact purchasing decisions, future supply chains and place further pressure on already squeezed margins.' And Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM, added: 'The third consecutive monthly rise in retail sales volumes in March confirms that consumers returned to stores in the first quarter of this year. However, the world has changed since March with the announcement of US tariffs and the associated huge increase in uncertainty. Indeed, consumer confidence dropped by four points in April.' Jacqueline Windsor, Head of retail at PwC UK thinks March's retail sales 'should be read with care as the ONS adjusts for the impact of Easter and school holidays falling in April this year' and she added that 'ironically, the only thing that the warm dry weather did not seem to help was the high street itself, with penetration of online retail sales increasing from 26.4% in February to 26.8% in March.' Greg Zakowicz, senior e-commerce expert at Omnisend, called the retail recovery 'fragile' but Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, thinks the 'unexpected rise in retail sales may indicate a turning point for retailers'. Meanwhile Deann Evans, MD EMEA at Shopify, said its data showed strong sales of outdoor goods. Summer fashion was also a driver of March sales, with Chino Shorts rising by a huge 530.9% compared to February -- and tank tops (389.3%) and crop tops (387.3%) close behind.
Fashion Network
25-04-2025
- Business
- Fashion Network
Sunshine boosts UK retail sales in March, shorts and tank top sales spike
UK retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% month on month in March 2025, the third consecutive month of rises and something of a surprise after analysts had predicted that they would dip. This follows a rise of 0.7% in February (revised down from a rise of 1% in the last bulletin from the Office for National Statistics). Sales volumes rose by 2.6% over the year to March 2025. And the best news? Clothing and outdoor retailers reported that good weather boosted sales, although these increases were partly offset by falls in supermarket sales. Also, volumes were down by 0.3%, compared with their pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Looking at the quarter, sales volumes rose by 1.6% in Q1 compared to the final quarter of last year and by 1.7% year on year. For the month, non-food stores sales volumes — the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores — rose by 1.7%. And, as mentioned, within non-food stores, clothing stores were the subsector with the strongest growth with retailers saying the unusually sunny weather had an impact. Non-store retailing sales volumes were up on the month, with similar commentary received about the weather, specifically mentioning boosts to clothing and DIY goods. The Met Office climate summaries reported that the UK had its third-sunniest March on record, and reported that March 2025 was warmer and drier than usual. Meanwhile the amount spent online or — online spending values — rose by 2% over the month to March 2025. Sales values also rose by 5.4% year on year. But while analysts were pleased with the figures, they included notes of caution in their assessments. Jacqui Baker, head of retail at consulting firm RSM UK and chair of ICAEW's Retail Group said the numbers 'should provide some reason for optimism in the retail sector. April's increase in National Minimum Wage will also mean consumers have more money in their pocket which should feed through to increased spending. Unfortunately, this good news for retailers might not be enough to offset the significant headwinds of rising employment costs and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. This additional layer of uncertainty will impact purchasing decisions, future supply chains and place further pressure on already squeezed margins.' And Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM, added: 'The third consecutive monthly rise in retail sales volumes in March confirms that consumers returned to stores in the first quarter of this year. However, the world has changed since March with the announcement of US tariffs and the associated huge increase in uncertainty. Indeed, consumer confidence dropped by four points in April.' Jacqueline Windsor, Head of retail at PwC UK thinks March's retail sales 'should be read with care as the ONS adjusts for the impact of Easter and school holidays falling in April this year' and she added that 'ironically, the only thing that the warm dry weather did not seem to help was the high street itself, with penetration of online retail sales increasing from 26.4% in February to 26.8% in March.' Greg Zakowicz, senior e-commerce expert at Omnisend, called the retail recovery 'fragile' but Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, thinks the 'unexpected rise in retail sales may indicate a turning point for retailers'. Meanwhile Deann Evans, MD EMEA at Shopify, said its data showed strong sales of outdoor goods. Summer fashion was also a driver of March sales, with Chino Shorts rising by a huge 530.9% compared to February -- and tank tops (389.3%) and crop tops (387.3%) close behind.
The Guardian
28-03-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Retail sales in Great Britain given lift as shoppers splash out
Retail sales in Great Britain rose last month amid a sharp increase in consumers spending at department stores, hardware shops and clothes outlets. Reflecting a stronger economic backdrop than feared, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed sales volumes rose by 1% on the month, although spending at supermarkets fell after a bumper month in January. City economists had forecast a 0.4% monthly fall amid weak levels of consumer confidence, after the economy came close to stagnation in the second half of last year as households tightened their belts. The figures will come as a boost for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, after the government's independent economic forecaster slashed its growth forecasts for 2025 in half at the spring statement on Wednesday. The ONS also said on Friday that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024, confirming its initial estimate made in February. However, it also revised up its growth estimates by 0.1 percentage points for each quarter between the final three months of 2023 and the second quarter of 2024. It now estimates the economy grew by 1.1% in 2024, up from an initial estimate of 0.9% growth. Thomas Pugh, an economist at the audit firm RSM UK, said: 'The upshot is that the economy is in slightly better shape than we thought at the end of last year, and households look to be in a strong financial position. 'But business confidence is still weak, which is reflected in falling business investment. The biggest risk is the uncertainty generated by US trade tariffs, a global trade war would mean another bout of stagflation for the UK, even if we avoid direct tariffs.' The latest snapshot will come as a boost for many retailers, as businesses brace for a jump in costs in April from an increases in the minimum wage, employer national insurance contributions and business rates. Industry figures had shown consumer confidence hit an 11-month low in February but shoppers appear to have defied a month of bad weather in February to make the most of discounting across the sector. Food sales fell back 2% compared with the previous month, as some economists suggested this could have been driven by consumers eating out more. The strongest performing category was household goods stores, where sales rose by 6.8% as customers prepared for the warmer months. Clothes and shoe shops recorded a 2.3% increase in sales. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Households have generally held on to savings in recent months, rather than spend, amid fragile levels of consumer confidence. Separate figures from the ONS showed households saved more money as a proportion of their income at the end of 2024 than at any point in nearly 15 years, apart from during the Covid pandemic. The household savings ratio rose to 12% in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 10.3% in the third quarter. 'We expect retail sales volumes to continue to rise through the rest of 2025 as households wind down their elevated savings levels, supporting future retail sales,' said Elliott Jordan-Doak, a senior UK economist at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics. 'That said, households will have to contend with rising inflation, the potential of stickier interest rates, and the ongoing threat of a global trade war.'
Yahoo
05-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Service sector job cuts speed up as firms brace for tax rises
Service sector firms cut jobs at the fastest rate since 2020 last month as companies tussled with weak demand and growing costs ahead of tax and wage rises in April. The S&P Global UK services PMI survey scored 51 in February, slightly up from 50.8 in January. Any reading above 50 means a sector is in growth, while a score below this means it is shrinking. The February score was slightly behind the 51.1 reading predicted by a consensus of economists. Companies face growing costs when the minimum wage and employer taxes rise at the start of the new financial year in April. Labour increased employer national insurance contributions (Nics) in the October Budget, designed to fund improvements to public services. But about a quarter of services firms polled reported that they were shedding jobs in February, citing the rising payroll costs as well as subdued market conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said services sector firms had seen a 'clear loss of growth momentum since last autumn'. He said: 'Worries about the near-term economic outlook and the impact of rising payroll costs contributed to another slide in business optimism.' He added: 'Less upbeat business expectations and another month of sharply rising input prices led to net job shedding across the service economy in February. 'Employment has now decreased for five months in a row. Aside from the pandemic, this represents the longest period of falling employment since early-2011.' While about a third of survey respondents said their average costs were still rising, the rate of inflation eased slightly compared with January, amid reports of weaker pricing power. Thomas Pugh, economist at the consultancy RSM, pointed to 'weak economic growth in the UK's major trading partners, such as France, Germany and China' for falling demand. But he added that the threat of US tariffs and a global trade war 'is probably more to blame for a sharp drop in sentiment'. 'Given recent developments this seems unlikely to change any time soon, meaning net-trade will continue to be a drag on growth.'
