Latest news with #ThomasRupf
Reuters
01-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
VIEW Investors react to Trump's new tariffs announcement
SINGAPORE, Aug 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries and foreign locations. Rates were set at 25% for India's U.S.-bound exports, 20% for Taiwan's and 30% for South Africa's. Trump also signed an executive order on Thursday increasing tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, the White House said. Asian stock markets (.MIAP00000PUS), opens new tab, futures for U.S. stocks and Europe slipped on the news. QUOTES: THOMAS RUPF, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, ASIA, VP BANK, SINGAPORE: "The latest tariff announcement offers some surface-level clarity, but beneath it lies a fog of uncertainty. While major ASEAN manufacturing countries managed to secure similar tariff rates in the 19%–20% range, potentially minimising intra-bloc tariff arbitrage, the broader picture remains murky. "These figures exist only on paper for now. Implementation and enforcement will ultimately determine the real impact. "No real winners in trade conflicts. Despite some countries securing better terms, the overall impact is negative. We're entering an era of higher barriers to trade, which will have an impact and hurt growth." PRASHANT BHAYANI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, ASIA, BNP PARIBAS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE: "The average tariff rate roughly on reciprocal is going from about 2.5% to 15%. So, that's a steep change. But if everyone's getting tariffed, it's more about the relative because then that affects how much you get relative to your competitors. "It would be more disruptive if you are at a much higher rate than your competitors. And in the short-term, there's trade diversion to another country that you compete with. But at this point, we're not seeing it." VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC, SINGAPORE: "The latest announcements offers some degree of closure about Trump's country-based tariffs. However, uncertainty remains about additional sector-based tariffs for industries like pharmaceutical and semiconductors. The impacts of Trump's tariffs are still playing out and will take time to work their way through the U.S. and other economies. "Investors will now keep a close eye on economic and earnings data in the coming months to assess the impact. This may not derail further upside for equity markets, but it means that volatility will remain a fixture and the uncertainty about the tariff impact may cap the upside for equity markets for now and we could see some consolidation." TONY SYCAMORE, MARKET ANALYST, IG, SYDNEY: "At this point, the reaction in markets has been modest, and I think part of the reason for that is the recent trade deals with the EU, Japan, and South Korea have certainly helped to cushion the impact, as has Mexico being granted a 90-day reprieve. And Trump said that trade talks with China are doing reasonably well there. "So on top of all of that, you have the TACO trade type situation whereby, after being obviously caught on the wrong foot in April, the market now, I think, has probably taken the view that these trade tariff levels can be renegotiated, can be walked lower over the course of time." ILLIANA JAIN, ECONOMIST, WESTPAC, SYDNEY: "The first thing to note is that we're not completely sure if these are the final rates for those countries, or if they're still subject to negotiations... when you're talking about that muted reaction from markets, it's probably kind of that wait-and-see, is this actually real? Are there going to be more negotiations? "For the time being, it looks like they will be in place, he did say a deadline of 1st of August. Though I would be really surprised if these countries didn't work hard to kind of fight the rates." "The tariff announcement brings clarity in form but not in function. We now have a list of countries and their respective rates, but the logic behind these numbers is far from transparent. The sweeping nature of the measures suggests that this isn't a one-time fix but the beginning of a new global trade regime that favours unpredictability over structure. "There are no real winners here. The US administration can claim a political win, having followed through on its threats, but economically the impact will be felt in higher prices, disrupted supply chains, and slower growth. Even countries that got away with 10% duties aren't celebrating, they're still dealing with a fractured trade landscape and the volatility in frameworks. "Defensive stocks or domestic-facing sectors might see some interest as capital rotates away from globally exposed companies, but this isn't a thematic opportunity, it's damage control." JEFF NG, HEAD OF ASIA MACRO STRATEGY, SMBC, SINGAPORE: "I would say that the tariffs have come in relatively within expectations. For myself, I was expecting 20-30% tariff rates on average, so it looks like it's close to the lower end of the range. "The dollar did strengthen over the past week or so... so it looks like part of what has been priced into the trend already. "I expect that the rates will continue to be changed between now and maybe even up until next year. Trump will continue to make some changes to the tariffs."
CNA
28-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
USD on a weaker trajectory through the second half of this year: Investment strategist
Thomas Rupf, Chief Investment Officer, Asia at VP Bank Singapore, explains why he expects more funds to switch out of the greenback and into the Euro.
