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Time of India
2 days ago
- Climate
- Time of India
A mega tsunami could strike the US with little warning: Understanding Cascadia, the danger zones, and how to get ready
Waiting. Biding its time. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, a sleeping giant beneath the Pacific Northwest, has remained eerily quiet for over 300 years. But when it finally awakens, it won't just be a powerful earthquake that hits the coastline. A towering tsunami, land collapse, and flooding on a historic scale may soon follow. What is the Cascadia Subduction Zone? The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a massive fault line running from northern California through Oregon and Washington, and all the way to British Columbia. It's where the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is slowly slipping beneath the North American Plate. But the plates don't glide smoothly — they get stuck. That strain builds for centuries until it finally breaks loose in a massive earthquake. The last major quake hit on January 26, 1700. Based on geological records, it likely had a magnitude between 8.7 and 9.2. That kind of power could strike again. According to the US National Seismic Hazard Model, there's now a 15% chance of a magnitude 8.0 or greater event within the next 50 years. Areas at risk When the rupture finally happens, it won't just cause violent shaking and a deadly tsunami. According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, coastal land across 24 estuaries from southern Washington to northern California could suddenly sink by up to 2.67 meters (8.76 feet). As per reports, these high risk areas include Washington, Oregon, Northern California, Alaska and Hawaii. "We talk about climate-driven sea level rise, which is occurring at three to four millimetres a year, and that does eventually add up," said Prof Tina Dura, the study's lead author, in an interview with BBC Science Focus . "But here we'll have two metres of sea level rise in minutes. Why aren't we talking about that more?" That sinking, or subsidence, would permanently change the coastline. Flood zones would dramatically expand — by as much as 300 km² (115 square miles) today. Areas from southern Washington to northern California could see permanent land drops, especially in low lying estuaries. This sinking land would make flooding worse and more widespread- even long after the tsunami has receded. The Long-term fallout Beyond the quake and tsunami, recovery efforts would be hampered by the new geography. Roads and emergency services may end up underwater. Saltwater could poison farmland. Wetlands that once helped block storm surges could vanish. A 2022 FEMA planning exercise estimated 5,800 deaths from the quake and another 8,000 from the tsunami. Over 618,000 buildings, including more than 2,000 schools and 100 key facilities, could be damaged or destroyed. The total projected economic impact? $134 billion. Infrastructure now at risk includes: 5 airports 18 emergency facilities (schools, hospitals, fire stations) 8 wastewater treatment plants 1 electric substation 57 contaminant sources (gas stations, chemical plants, etc.) Aftershocks that never stop The study warns that even if the quake struck decades from now, its effects could be magnified by climate change. By 2100, global sea levels are expected to rise another 60 cm (2 feet). In Cascadia, rising land has masked some of that rise — but when the quake hits and the land sinks, the sea will seem to rise instantly. The study also estimates that if the quake happens in 2100, floodplains could triple compared to today, expanding by up to 370 km² (145 sq miles). How can people prepare themselves? There are no easy answers. Cascadia is a unique problem faced by seismologists as it is so quiet. No one can predict the exact date or time it can wreak havoc. In case of an emergency, there are a few things that residents near the coast need to remember to ensure their safety Identifying and relocating vulnerable infrastructure Educating the public on risks Prepare an emergency kit, as the infrastructure will be destroyed Practice and update your emergency plan every 6 months. Write down emergency numbers; give copies to all family members.
Yahoo
24-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a looming West Coast risk.
The pressure keeps building below the Earth's surface off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and a multi-layered disaster could strike at any time. A huge earthquake is brewing along the Cascadia Subduction Zone that could destroy bridges, reshape the landscape and trigger a massive tsunami. Scientists have known about the looming danger for years, but ongoing research keeps painting a clearer picture of what could happen. Among the dangers: A huge tsunami that will wash over costal areas and permanently flood them. The quake is a matter of if, not when, said Tina Dura, a geologist and professor of natural hazards at Virginia Polytechnic Institute in Blacksburg, Virginia. Recent research has focused on how climate change is increasing the impact of the earthquake on coastal areas that will suddenly sink. Researchers expect the quake will trigger an as much a 6-foot drop in some inland areas — then a massive tsunami will flood those regions, some permanently. "Imagine if, after Hurricane Katrina, after all the horrible things that happened, if we'd also lost big chunks of New Orleans and it never came back," said Diego Melgar, a professor at the University of Oregon and director of the Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center. The loss of swaths of land is just one of the surreal series of events that will occur when the earthquake eventually strikes, researchers say. This is a mix of bad and good news. The quake is a certainty, but could be hundreds of years off. While it could happen at any time, seismologists have estimated there is a 15% probability of a magnitude 8 in the next 50 years — a substantial risk for such a devastating scenario. Part of their confidence comes from the history of huge earthquakes in the region. "It could be tomorrow or decades from now. But geologically speaking, we're well within the window of possibility," Dura said. "The last event was in 1700, and paleoseismic records show these earthquakes recur roughly every 200 to 800 years. By 2100, there is a 30% chance of a large earthquake happening." Scientists have a clear picture of what will happen when the earthquake strikes. 'First would come extremely strong shaking – shaking that makes it difficult to stand or walk. This would probably last a minute or longer," said Melgar. Next, land along the coast would drop as much as six-and-a-half feet in places, probably within minutes. "Then there would probably be 30 to 40 minutes of seeming peace. But that's a false impression, because the tsunami is coming," he said. The resulting waves would be on the order of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 50,000 people. The tsunami wave from an earthquake of this size could get to 90 or 100 feet tall, Melgar said. When the tsunami wave arrives at the shore "you get this massive surge that lasts for hours, sometimes days," Melgar said. This is where global warming comes in. Two things play a part in creating the catastrophe their research describes. First, the land would have dropped as much as six feet. At the same time, sea level rise from climate change means that the water which rushes in will cover more land. "You'd hope the tsunami could come to shore, then flow out again and the land would dry out. But there will be parts where it's now below sea level – the water won't flow back," said Melgar. A great Cascadia earthquake could instantly expand flood zones and double flood exposure for residents, structures, and roads. When combined with rising sea levels, these effects could render some coastal communities permanently uninhabitable, said Dura. Even if some areas along the coastline do dry out, they will be much closer to sea level and become susceptible to nuisance flooding if there's a particularly big storm or high tide. The West Coast is subject to numerous small earthquakes all the time, but they're not big enough to relieve the pressure that's being built up along the Cascadia fault line, Melgar said. So much energy has built up in the zone that even a magnitude 8 earthquake wouldn't relieve it. "Remember, the magnitude scale is logarithmic. So each increase in magnitude is an increase of 30 in terms of energy," he said. The great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was a magnitude 8 temblor and it was devastating. "If we had one magnitude 8 quake here, we'd still have 29 to go to relieve the pressure," he said. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a West Coast risk.
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
3.6 Magnitude Earthquake Rattles U.S. Town Near Volcano
The United States has dealt with a flurry of earthquakes this month, raising concerns about "The Big One." Last week, the United States Geological Survey detected a trio of earthquakes in California in a 24-hour span. The first earthquake had a 2.9 magnitude. Although the other two earthquakes weren't that impactful, there are concerns about a sizable earthquake leveling the West Coast. "Since it has been more than 144 years since the last major earthquake, the clock is ticking," researchers at the University of California, Berkley said. "It is very likely that the Hayward fault will rupture and produce a significant earthquake within the next 30 years." Virginia Tech professor Tina Dura agreed that California could face "The Big One" at some point in the future. "But geologically speaking, we're well within the window of possibility. The last event was in 1700, and paleoseismic records show these earthquakes recur roughly every 200 to 800 years," Dura told Newsweek. "The National Seismic Hazard model shows that there is a 15% chance of a large (over magnitude 8) earthquake happening sometime in the next 50 years." While we're not sure when or if this will happen, the US Geological Survey confirmed that a 3.6 magnitude earthquake was detected this Friday. A small town in Idaho was rocked by this earthquake Friday. The earthquake actually occurred 126 miles from the Yellowstone's caldera, a volcanic depression at that park. "These tremors usually shake areas within the Yellowstone Caldera and nearby fault zones, but the supervolcano can also influence seismic activity over 100 miles away," Daily Mail's report stated. "A new study recently showed that Yellowstone's magma chamber is just 2.3 miles or about 12,500 feet below Earth's surface." Geologists are still investigating this incident. We're certainly hoping the United States avoids a catastrophic earthquake.3.6 Magnitude Earthquake Rattles U.S. Town Near Volcano first appeared on The Spun on May 23, 2025
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Scientists warn if a 1,000-ft ‘mega-tsunami's spurs from an active fault line it could wipe part of America off the map
Scientists are warning that a 1,000-foot-tall 'mega tsunami' could potentially wipe a large chunk of America off the map – if a strong enough earthquake hits a specific active fault line over the next 50 years. Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the mainland America's West Coast are at risk if an earthquake erupts along the Cascadia subduction zone, a fault stretching from Northern Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino, California. A recent study by Virginia Tech geoscientists published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences estimates that there's a 15 percent chance of a magnitude 8.0 earthquake hitting the region within the next 50 years. That quake, which would potentially flush away cities like Seattle and Portland, Oregon, could also sink coastal land by as much as 6.5 feet, according to the findings. In that instance, the mega tsunami's waves could reach up to 1,000 feet, putting millions of Americans at new risk. While ordinary tsunamis produce waves standing a few feet tall, mega-tsunamis are characterized by extreme height, with waves often stretching hundreds of feet into the air. Unlike gradual climate-driven events, this potential earthquake would 'happen within minutes, leaving no time for adaptation or mitigation,' the scientists warned. 'The expansion of the coastal floodplain following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake has not been previously quantified, and the impacts to land use could significantly increase the timeline to recovery,' said Tina Dura, lead author of the study and assistant professor in Virginia Tech's Department of Geosciences. The new research found the most severe effects would be in southern Washington, northern Oregon and northern California. Alaska and Hawaii, though further from the fault line, are vulnerable because of their seismic and volcanic profiles. There also has not been a quake of large seismic magnitude along the Cascadia subduction zone since 1700.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Scientist Issues Warning of Major West Coast Earthquake
It's been nearly 12 decades since the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 killed as many as 3,000 people. Now, one scientist is warning that another major West Coast earthquake could be imminent and perhaps even more devastating than that one. Tina Dura, a geosciences professor at Virginia Tech, was the lead author of a recent study that looked into the risk of major flooding in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. The study looked into flooding that would be caused from two factors happening together: powerful earthquakes and rising sea levels due to climate change. Dura and other experts have begun to worry about "the next big event being imminent" in the Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from Northern California to Washington, given that a major event has not happened in over 300 years. "We expect something like the Japan 2011 and Sumatra 2004 earthquakes and tsunamis to occur there," Dura told Accuweather. In an email to Newsweek, Dura clarified that such an earthquake could come "tomorrow or decades from now," but it's "well within the window of possibility." "But geologically speaking, we're well within the window of possibility. The last event was in 1700, and paleoseismic records show these earthquakes recur roughly every 200 to 800 years," she told Newsweek. "The National Seismic Hazard model shows that there is a 15% chance of a large (over magnitude 8) earthquake happening sometime in the next 50 years. "By 2100, there is a 30% chance of a large earthquake happening. To me, those probabilities are high enough that we should be preparing for the effects of such an earthquake." The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a fault line where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate is slowly sliding beneath the North American plate. As Newsweek explains, the boundary between the two tectonic plates is capable of producing megathrust earthquakes that strike with little warning, impacting hundreds of miles of coastline simultaneously, which could trigger widespread land subsidence, powerful tsunamis, and long-lasting infrastructure failures. Based on the warnings from Dura and other experts, it sounds like this type of earthquake could strike at any time.
