3 days ago
BBC Verify Live: Cost of benefits U-turn, and new Gaza evacuation order
Update:
Date: 10:32 BST
Title: Could the welfare reform plan end up costing the government money?
Content: Tom EdgingtonBBC Verify senior journalist
Economists have suggested the government's latest concession on its welfare reforms - notably that proposed changes to personal independence payments (Pip) will be delayed - will now result in no 'net savings' by 2030.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), says, external the reforms 'could even end up costing a few tens of millions'.
How is this possible?
Under the government's original plans, the reform package was expected to save around £5bn a year by 2030.
This projected figure has been whittled down after a series of concessions to Labour MPs.
The tightening of Pip rules was expected to save £2.6bn by 2030, according to the IFS's Tom Waters.
But this change is now subject to a government review - which means ministers are left with just a projected £1.7bn saving from cutting the health element of universal credit.
However, the government has also promised to raise basic universal credit, at a cost of £1.8bn, Waters adds. This potentially leaves the government with a bill of £100m in 2029-30.
Update:
Date: 10:06 BST
Title: IDF issues new evacuation order for Khan Younis
Content: Joshua Cheetham and Paul BrownBBC Verify
The Israeli military has issued evacuation orders for three areas of Khan Younis, southern Gaza, with people there being told to go 'immediately northwards to the known shelters in Deir al-Balah'.
The Israel Defense Forces has not provided any immediate details about these shelters.
Two of these areas in Khan Younis have appeared in previous evacuation orders, while a third is new.
There have been reports of an overnight raid in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City, which we're investigating.
The Israel Defense Forces' Arabic spokesman posted this map identifying the latest evacuation zones in Khan Younis
Update:
Date: 09:53 BST
Title: What's the impact of the welfare U-turn on the government's finances?
Content: Tom EdgingtonBBC Verify senior journalist
The government's last-minute concession yesterday over its plan to change the personal independence payment disability benefit leaves it facing questions about the impact of this - and other welfare reform concessions - on the public finances.
The government's original welfare plan was expected to save about £5bn a year from 2030. That estimate was halved when it announced initial concessions last week in an attempt to stave off a growing rebellion by Labour MPs.
Having now made further concessions, economists say the government could end up with no "net savings" by 2030.
This is significant because the government has a rule which says it cannot borrow money to fund day-to-day spending - to effectively balance the books.
And the amount of leeway Chancellor Rachel Reeves had initially budgeted for against her borrowing rule was just £9.9bn by 2030.
Helen Miller, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the welfare concessions have effectively halved the chancellor's "margin of error" against her main fiscal rule - raising the possibility of tax rises in the autumn.
Update:
Date: 09:42 BST
Title: Wednesday on BBC Verify Live
Content: Rob CorpBBC Verify Live editor
Good morning.
On the live page today we're going to be sharing BBC
Verify's work on a range of stories - taking in the impact on the UK's public
finances of the government's last-minute changes to its welfare reform plans in
the face of a significant potential rebellion by its own MPs.
Elsewhere, we're keeping a close eye on what's happening in
Gaza. The Israeli military has warned residents in parts of Khan Younis to
'head north' - we'll assess which areas are affected. And with renewed talk of
a ceasefire in the long-running war between Israel and Hamas we'll share what
we know about the hostages still being held in Gaza and any strikes that
happen in the meantime.
As well as those we'll be across Prime Minister's Questions
in the House of Commons from noon ready to fact-check any claims made by MPs
during the session.
We start today with our first look at the consequences of yesterday's
welfare U-turn.
