BBC Verify Live: Cost of benefits U-turn, and new Gaza evacuation order
Date: 10:32 BST
Title: Could the welfare reform plan end up costing the government money?
Content: Tom EdgingtonBBC Verify senior journalist
Economists have suggested the government's latest concession on its welfare reforms - notably that proposed changes to personal independence payments (Pip) will be delayed - will now result in no 'net savings' by 2030.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), says, external the reforms 'could even end up costing a few tens of millions'.
How is this possible?
Under the government's original plans, the reform package was expected to save around £5bn a year by 2030.
This projected figure has been whittled down after a series of concessions to Labour MPs.
The tightening of Pip rules was expected to save £2.6bn by 2030, according to the IFS's Tom Waters.
But this change is now subject to a government review - which means ministers are left with just a projected £1.7bn saving from cutting the health element of universal credit.
However, the government has also promised to raise basic universal credit, at a cost of £1.8bn, Waters adds. This potentially leaves the government with a bill of £100m in 2029-30.
Update:
Date: 10:06 BST
Title: IDF issues new evacuation order for Khan Younis
Content: Joshua Cheetham and Paul BrownBBC Verify
The Israeli military has issued evacuation orders for three areas of Khan Younis, southern Gaza, with people there being told to go 'immediately northwards to the known shelters in Deir al-Balah'.
The Israel Defense Forces has not provided any immediate details about these shelters.
Two of these areas in Khan Younis have appeared in previous evacuation orders, while a third is new.
There have been reports of an overnight raid in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City, which we're investigating.
The Israel Defense Forces' Arabic spokesman posted this map identifying the latest evacuation zones in Khan Younis
Update:
Date: 09:53 BST
Title: What's the impact of the welfare U-turn on the government's finances?
Content: Tom EdgingtonBBC Verify senior journalist
The government's last-minute concession yesterday over its plan to change the personal independence payment disability benefit leaves it facing questions about the impact of this - and other welfare reform concessions - on the public finances.
The government's original welfare plan was expected to save about £5bn a year from 2030. That estimate was halved when it announced initial concessions last week in an attempt to stave off a growing rebellion by Labour MPs.
Having now made further concessions, economists say the government could end up with no "net savings" by 2030.
This is significant because the government has a rule which says it cannot borrow money to fund day-to-day spending - to effectively balance the books.
And the amount of leeway Chancellor Rachel Reeves had initially budgeted for against her borrowing rule was just £9.9bn by 2030.
Helen Miller, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the welfare concessions have effectively halved the chancellor's "margin of error" against her main fiscal rule - raising the possibility of tax rises in the autumn.
Update:
Date: 09:42 BST
Title: Wednesday on BBC Verify Live
Content: Rob CorpBBC Verify Live editor
Good morning.
On the live page today we're going to be sharing BBC
Verify's work on a range of stories - taking in the impact on the UK's public
finances of the government's last-minute changes to its welfare reform plans in
the face of a significant potential rebellion by its own MPs.
Elsewhere, we're keeping a close eye on what's happening in
Gaza. The Israeli military has warned residents in parts of Khan Younis to
'head north' - we'll assess which areas are affected. And with renewed talk of
a ceasefire in the long-running war between Israel and Hamas we'll share what
we know about the hostages still being held in Gaza and any strikes that
happen in the meantime.
As well as those we'll be across Prime Minister's Questions
in the House of Commons from noon ready to fact-check any claims made by MPs
during the session.
We start today with our first look at the consequences of yesterday's
welfare U-turn.
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The Guardian
34 minutes ago
- The Guardian
The Gaza discourse has been Vylanised – but that diversionary strategy just doesn't work any more
If you are in the business of anointing monsters, you can see why your eyes would light up at a punk act called Bob Vylan. Until last weekend, sure, it might have been a tough sell to proclaim them as an avatar for Britain's revolting youth: prominent though they might be on the UK's punk scene, they had about about 220,000 monthly listeners on Spotify – a mere 1,000,000 away from a place in the top 10,000. But then, at Glastonbury, they made the most powerful possible case for broad media attention: they said something controversial about Israel's assault on Gaza, and opened up a chance to have a go at the BBC. And so the following morning, on the front page of the Mail on Sunday: 'NOW ARREST PUNK BAND WHO LED 'DEATH TO ISRAELIS' CHANTS AT GLASTONBURY.' Pascal Robinson-Foster, aka Bobby Vylan, had started a round of 'antisemitic chanting' that was broadcast live on the corporation's coverage of the festival, the story explained. Keir Starmer called it 'appalling hate speech'. The calls for the band members' arrest were quickly picked up, and before long the Conservatives were suggesting that the BBC should be prosecuted as well. On Monday, the story splashed in the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Express. In fact, Robinson-Foster hadn't chanted 'Death to Israelis', but 'Death to the IDF', a sharply different proposition, and one focused on the military machine attacking Gaza, the Israeli Defense Forces, rather than Israeli civilians. Nonetheless, the Mail on Sunday's headline elision stuck. In much of the coverage, the idea that the chant was inherently antisemitic wasn't even a question. The assertion was barely explained in any of the front page stories; the BBC and even Glastonbury's Emily Eavis went along with it too. If you were looking for a rationale, the closest you got came from Stephen Pollard in the Mail on Sunday: after comparing the scene to the Nuremberg rallies, he added that 'what they meant – because the IDF is the army of the world's only Jewish state – was 'Death, death to the Jews''. Later, Andrew Neil went further: 'I was going to say that they sometimes seem to have more in common with the Nuremberg rally,' he mused. 'But even the Nazis didn't say 'death to the Jews'.' Meanwhile, Yvette Cooper has ordered that Palestine Action should be banned as a terrorist group for its targeting of buildings and businesses in opposition to Israel's actions in Gaza, even though it has no agenda for violence – and after a last-minute legal challenge to the proscription failed on Friday, supporting them is now a criminal offence. In that environment, any uncertainty about the Bob Vylan story would plainly be treated as apologism for hate speech, or worse, and so there wasn't a lot of it about. In truth, though, a lot of people might have been uncertain. The IDF as metonym for any Jew is not a typical trope in the extremist's lexicon, and the circumstances of the Israeli military's assault on Gaza are the obvious, and urgent, locus of the chant's intended force. Nonetheless, Avon and Somerset police have now opened a criminal investigation. There are, to be sure, cogent objections to raise. Robinson-Foster described a record label boss as a 'Zionist', and while he noted that the executive 'would speak very strongly about his support for Israel', it is reasonable to accuse him of playing into a familiar antisemitic trope, particularly about the music industry. Meanwhile, some Jewish people already alert to a rise in racist hostility towards them may well have felt alarmed by the sight of a crowd chanting against the Israeli army. Sensible people will come to a range of conclusions about those points – but there has been no space for that discussion, because the IDF apparently represents Jewish people everywhere, and everything else gets lost in the shuffle. The death toll in Gaza now stands at more than 57,000, according to figures from the Gaza ministry of health; a robust independent survey recently put the count at almost 84,000. Israeli ministers and officials have given weight to allegations that a genocide is under way with assertions that starving two million Palestinians to death might be 'justified and moral' and descriptions of a forced 'deportation plan'. The amount of aid going into the territory remains a fraction of what is needed. At least 400 Palestinians have been killed recently in incidents involving the IDF while approaching food distribution centres; Haaretz reported that soldiers were ordered to fire on them deliberately, a claim denied by Israel as 'vicious lies'. Meanwhile, in the UK, the only adjacent story deemed worthy of front page attention is the conduct of an obscure punk-rap group from Ipswich. On 17 June, at least 59 Palestinians were killed after the IDF fired on a crowd waiting for flour trucks near Khan Younis. The next day's Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, Sun and Daily Express featured no coverage of that story at all. Perhaps they would have done if the BBC had broadcast it live. It would be understandable, then, to conclude that the obsession with Bob Vylan – and Kneecap, and Palestine Action – matters mainly for its diversionary force. But there is something more at work here. It isn't just that people are angry that the catastrophe in Gaza isn't being given due attention: it is that their encounters with observable reality are being flatly denied. The choice framed by these stories is between being an anti-racist, or even an anti-terrorist, and being horrified by the slaughter of thousands of brown civilians in a military siege. For anyone who routinely sees videos of the aftermath of Israeli violence against civilians in their social media feeds, this is enough to make you feel crazy. Across the UK and the US, there is increasing evidence that people who object to what we might call the Vylanising of the Gaza discourse are finding their voice. In the general election last year, Labour lost five seats to pro-Gaza candidates, and forfeited about a third of its vote in some Muslim majority areas. In New York, Zohran Mamdani won an underdog victory in the Democratic mayoral primary despite attempts to caricature him as an advocate of 'jihad'. Some 55% of the British public opposes Israel's military campaign in Gaza, and 45% view Israel's actions as genocidal; less than half of Americans are now more sympathetic to Israel than to Palestinians, and almost 60% of Democrats are now more supportive of Palestinians. Among people under 40, those numbers only go up. Those people have been told that Gaza protests are hate marches; they can see it's not true. They have been told that US campus protesters are largely motivated by antisemitism; they can see it's not true. They have been told that Palestine Action is a terrorist organisation because it spray painted military aircraft; they can see it's not true. They have been repeatedly told, by Benjamin Netanyahu, that opposition to Israel's war is antisemitic; they can see it's not true. They have been told that the British government finds Israel's actions 'intolerable'; they can see it's not true. Now they are being told that opposing the IDF is antisemitic, that the Glastonbury crowd is more virulent than the one at Nuremberg, and that direct action is a form of terrorism. They can see all that's not true, either, and however far their view is from the front pages, they know that they are far from alone. Archie Bland is the editor of the Guardian's First Edition newsletter Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.
The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
Hamas says it is ready to enter ceasefire negotiations in ‘positive spirit'
Hamas said it had responded on Friday in 'a positive spirit' to a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire proposal and was prepared to enter into talks on implementing the deal which envisages a release of hostages and negotiations on ending the conflict. US president Donald Trump earlier announced a 'final proposal' for a 60-day ceasefire in the nearly 21-month-old war between Israel and Hamas, stating he anticipated a reply from the parties in coming hours. On Friday evening Hamas wrote on its official website: 'The movement has delivered its response to the brotherly mediators, which was characterized by a positive spirit. Hamas is fully prepared, with all seriousness, to immediately enter a new round of negotiations on the mechanism for implementing this framework.' Israeli media reported that Israel had received Hamas's response and it was being examined. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One late on Friday, Trump said he was optimistic about the developments and there 'could be a Gaza deal' next week, although the situation could change. Earlier a source told the Guardian that Hamas leaders were close to accepting a proposed deal for a ceasefire in Gaza but want stronger guarantees that any pause in hostilities would lead to a permanent end to the 20-month war. The militant Islamist group has come under immense pressure in recent months, with its military leadership decimated and the Israeli military forcing its fighters out of former strongholds in the southern and central parts of Gaza. In recent days, Israel has ramped up its offensive, launching an intense wave of airstrikes across Gaza, killing more than 250 Palestinians, including many women and children, according to medical and civil defence officials. Hardline factions within Hamas had reluctantly accepted the need for a ceasefire to allow the organisation to regroup and plan a new strategy, one source familiar with the internal debate said. Since a previous ceasefire collapsed in March, more than 6,000 people have been killed in Gaza and an acute humanitarian crisis has worsened. Efforts for a new truce in Gaza gathered momentum after the US secured a ceasefire to end the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran last month. On Tuesday, Trump announced that Israel had accepted the conditions needed to finalise a 60-day ceasefire, during which the parties would work to end the war. When asked on Thursday if Hamas had agreed to the latest ceasefire deal framework, he said: 'We'll see what happens. We are going to know over the next 24 hours.' Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to fly to Washington on Sunday for talks with Trump about the war in Gaza, the recent war between Israel and Iran, and other regional issues. The Israeli prime minister has long resisted a permanent end to the war in Gaza, partly to retain the support of far-right allies in his ruling coalition. But Israel's successes in the war with Iran have strengthened his political position and opinion polls in Israel show strong support for a deal. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12, a major Israeli TV network: 'Judging by the signals from Hamas, there is a high probability that we will start proximity talks in the next few days. If there is consent to proximity talks, there will be a deal.' Other Israeli officials told Reuters preparations were in place to approve the ceasefire deal and that an Israeli delegation was getting ready to join indirect talks brokered by Qatar and Egypt to cement the deal if Hamas responded positively. The proposal includes the release of 10 living Israeli hostages held in Gaza since the Hamas attack on southern Israel in October 2023 that triggered the conflict, and the return of the bodies of 18 more, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, an official familiar with the negotiations said on Thursday. Hamas seized 251 hostages during the 2023 attack. Less than half of the 50 who remain in Gaza are believed to be alive. Aid would enter Gaza immediately under the agreement, and the Israeli military would carry out a phased withdrawal from parts of the territory, according to the proposal. Negotiations would immediately start on a permanent ceasefire. 'We sure hope it's a done deal, but I think it's all going to be what Hamas is willing to accept,' Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, told Channel 12 on Thursday. 'One thing is clear: the president wants it to be over. The prime minister wants it to be over. The American people, the Israeli people, want it to be over.' Sign up to First Thing Our US morning briefing breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion The delivery of more aid to Gaza has been a principal demand of Hamas throughout negotiations. Israel imposed an 11-week blockade in March, which was only slightly eased in May under huge international pressure as famine loomed. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a secretive private organisation backed by the US and Israel that was charged with delivering food in Gaza, has been dogged by controversy. Hundreds have been killed by Israeli fire while seeking aid at the GHF's hubs and after gathering in crowds at locations where convoys sent by the UN have been stopped. On Friday, a report by the BBC quoted a former GHF employee describing colleagues firing towards Palestinians who had posed no threat, with many appearing to have been seriously hurt on several occasions. The GHF employee told the BBC he and others had been given no clear rules of engagement or standard operating procedures, and were told by one team leader: 'If you feel threatened, shoot – shoot to kill and ask questions later.' The GHF said the allegations, which were also made by former employees quoted by the Associated Press on Thursday, were categorically false and that no civilians had came under fire at their distribution sites. The Israeli military has denied any intent to harm civilians seeking aid, saying it only fired warning shots. Speaking to journalists while on his way to a rally in Iowa on Thursday, Trump said: 'I want the people of Gaza to be safe. That's more important than anything else. They've gone through hell.' Netanyahu visited Israel's Nir Oz kibbutz on Thursday for the first time since the 2023 Hamas attack. The community was one of the worst-hit in the attack, with nearly one in four residents kidnapped or killed. He said: 'I feel a deep commitment – first of all to ensure the return of all of our hostages, all of them. There are still 20 who are alive and there are also those who are deceased, and we will bring them all back.' The prime minister has been heavily criticised for refusing to take responsibility for the failures that allowed the 2023 attack, during which Hamas-led militants killed 1,200, mostly civilians, and has been repeatedly accused of prioritising his political survival over the fate of the hostages. Israel's retaliatory military campaign has killed at least 57,000 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to a count by the territory's ministry of health that is considered reliable by the UN and many western governments. The Israeli military said it 'follows international law and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm' when striking 'terrorist targets'.
Telegraph
2 hours ago
- Telegraph
The best fences couldn't keep intruders out, RAF insiders claim
The highest-security fences surrounding Britain's military bases can be broken into within five minutes, Royal Air Force insiders have claimed. Spending 'many millions' to install barbed wire-topped high fences at every base would therefore not materially improve security, they argued. Just weeks after Palestine Action activists broke into RAF Brize Norton, Britain's largest air base, the soon-to-be proscribed group has pledged to raid others in protest against Israel's war in Gaza. The Telegraph has found a number of the RAF's most important bases are susceptible to such attacks, with 'vulnerable' airstrips protected by hedges, wooden fences or nothing at all. Security weaknesses included wooden fences, drystone walls, weakly defended emergency access points and unmanned gate barriers. A mooted future home for the new nuclear-capable F35 fighter jets is kept behind a 5ft-high fence. The Telegraph has chosen not to name the bases visited or to detail precisely where weaknesses are along their perimeters. But the revelations prompted calls for a programme of fence-building to prevent future break-ins. RAF insiders, however, said the best barriers could still be broken into in 'three to five minutes'. 'The bottom line to the defence estate and certainly the RAF estate is that we have big chunks of land in the middle of nowhere, and those big chunks of land have massive perimeters,' one source said. 'Now let's say we did put up – at the cost of many millions of pounds, and I have no idea how much it would cost – 12ft high fencing. 'Heathrow call it three-minute fencing because their security team estimates that a high security fence will only delay somebody with intent and with the right tools for approximately three to five minutes. 'So you can put up as much fencing as you like, but it's not a panacea.' Sources said the Armed Forces could not afford to install 'thousands of miles' of high-security fences and instead had to focus on protecting the 'most sensitive' assets. 'We put security where we think we really need it, where our key most sensitive assets are, and we can't afford to put it everywhere,' one said. 'So let's focus on what the key things are and not on what we don't deem essential. 'Does that mean we don't want bigger fences, more fences and larger ones? No, we do. 'You could probably wander around the Army estate or the Navy estate and you'd find exactly the same things. Because again, the high-sensitive areas will have high security.' The source added: 'So how do you do security? You choose the areas that are most sensitive and that need to be most secure, and then you focus on that.' The Armed Forces also use intelligence, CCTV, electronic sensors, patrols and reaction forces to secure their bases, and measures have been enhanced since the Brize Norton infiltration, they added. A review is currently underway to assess weaknesses and identify improvements, a Ministry of Defence spokesman revealed. They added: 'We take security extremely seriously and operate a multi-layered approach to protect our sites, including fencing, patrols and CCTV monitoring. 'Following the security incident at RAF Brize Norton, we are urgently reviewing security procedures across the Defence estate and have immediately implemented a series of enhanced security measures at all sites. 'After years of hollowing out and underfunding of the Armed Forces, the Strategic Defence Review concluded that we need to invest more in this area, backed by the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War.'
