Latest news with #Truchelut
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center watching 2 tropical waves in Atlantic as Pacific activity picks up
While the eastern Pacific is active, conditions remain quiet in the tropical Atlantic and near Florida, with no activity expected over the next seven days. The National Hurricane Center is watching two tropical waves. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The first hurricane of the 2025 season is expected to develop soon west of Mexico in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Barbara is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane today, June 9. Tropical Storm Cosme is expected to near hurricane strength today, before weakening June 10. Another large plume of dust moving off Africa could reach Florida around June 13, according to AccuWeather. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 9: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic: Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave located at 37W from 02N-12N in the central Atlantic is moving west at 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave east of the Caribbean Sea has its axis along 57W south of 17N, is moving west at 11 to 17 mph. Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, before a storm is approaching. While conditions in the Atlantic basin have been quiet since the June 1 start of the 2025 hurricane season, that's not the case in the eastern Pacific. Currently, there are two tropical storms — Barbara and Cosme — west of Mexico and a tropical depression is expected to form later in the week or during the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Alvin formed in late May. ➤ First hurricane of 2025 season expected to develop in Pacific. Where are 2 tropical storms? Tropical Storm Barbara is expected to become a hurricane later today, June 9. Tropical Storm Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength later today or tonight before weakening June 10. Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network. "None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month." ➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said. "The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year," Truchelut said. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded." Pensacola, western Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms forecast. A slight risk of severe weather expected through tonight. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers expected to slowly diminish through the morning but storms could develop this afternoon and into the evening. Some storms could be strong, bringing wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter-sized hail. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along and north of I-10. Main threats with strong storms will be damaging winds around 60 mph, frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall and possible minor flooding in areas that have received multiple days of rain. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: It'll be hot and humid, near 90 at the coast and low to mid 90s inland. Peak heat indices range between 99 and 104. UV Index will be extreme. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening lightning storms forecast. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: A few isolated storms will be possible across interior today, while hot and sunny conditions continue across metro areas. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: After a few days of low rain chances, a change in the weather pattern is on the horizon. Increasing moisture will allow for higher chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Center tracking 2 tropical waves. Florida forecast, radar
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
As Saharan dust moves through Florida, National Hurricane Center watching tropical wave
As Saharan dust keeps Florida skies hazy, all is quiet in the tropics. Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a system off Florida's coast for potential development. Although it brought some rain to the state, the system was no longer seen as a potential for tropical development later in the day June 4. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location On June 5, the tropical outlook map shows no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days. That doesn't mean all will be smooth sailing in Florida. Along with the Saharan dust, showers and thunderstorms can be expected to continue in some locations, along with higher temperatures and a heat index in the triple digits. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 5: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 17 mph. Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network. "None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month." ➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said. "The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded." The GFS model, which stands for Global Forecast System, is the weather prediction model operated by the National Weather Service. In addition to providing data for a wide range of forecasts, it's also used for hurricane tracking. Here's what you can expect June 5: Pensacola, western Panhandle: There's a 50% chance for showers Thursday. High temperatures today will range from 86 to 91 degrees and are forecast to climb even higher June 6, between 88 and 93, with a heat index in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Scattered to widespread showers and storms expected again Thursday afternoon with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Jacksonville, Northeast Florida: Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expect through next week. Heat index Jung 6-8 could near 105. Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms are forecast into the afternoon/evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. Expect frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, 1-2 inches or more in 90 minutes. There is a 10-20% chance of rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch from Titusville to Poinciana and to the north. Seasonable temperatures are expected today over east-central Florida, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and heat index values between 96 and 101. West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida: With Saharan Dust moving over South Florida June 5, chances for rain will decrease compared to the last couple of days, especially across the East Coast metro area. This will also result in warmer temperatures in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Fort Myers to Sarasota, west-southwest Florida: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. A "wall of dust" is moving through Florida, according to AccuWeather and is expected to spread over more of the Southeast today. Look for vivid sunrises and sunsets, along with hazy skies. The dust traveled across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert. Dust in the atmosphere helps prevent the formation or strengthening of tropical systems. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Center update: Tropical wave, Saharan dust, Florida forecast
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
New study finds this company most accurate for hurricane predictions. Is it right?
As the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, it is vitally important for Floridians who are potentially in the line of fire to have the most accurate, up-to-date weather information available. A new study by London-based marketing and analytics firm Kantar suggests that it might come from AccuWeather. Based on forecasts during the 2024 Atlantic season, Kantar determined that "AccuWeather's forecasts are, on average, the most accurate, the best communicated, and overall the most useful for people to make the best decisions to protect life and property." However, other meteorologists pointed out problems with Kantar's report. "The AccuWeather 'study' makes claims about their forecast skill that cannot be falsified, and thus are not scientific," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, co-founder, president, and chief meteorologist of Tallahassee-based weather forecasting company WeatherTiger. "Without offering a study methodology to scrutinize, there is no way to evaluate the so-called findings in the slide deck, other than to say the document overall reads like something put together by consultants with no background in meteorology, working backwards from a conclusion," Truchelut said in an email. "As Accuweather does not issue detailed track and intensity forecasts to the public each 6 hours as the NHC does, there is no independent means of verifying their forecasts, as the NHC rigorously does after each season." Other critics pointed out that the report seemingly does not include false positives where AccuWeather forecasted system developments that never happened, the study looked at only one year, and it may not have compared apples to apples in the data. "The report is an exercise in marketing and self-aggrandizement, and nothing else," Truchelut said. "Furthermore, it is also in extraordinarily ill taste to attack the NHC now, with NOAA and the NWS suffering continued cuts." The report comes as the Trump administration has made drastic cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which oversees the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Service, among other agencies. More than 550 of the 4,800 weather service employees have been dismissed, retired or accepted incentive offers to step down, leaving many of the forecast offices shorthanded with staff reductions from 20-40% and scrambling to cover staffing and maintain the usual quality and number of measurements. Several offices were forced to end weather balloon launches, which can reduce the agency's ability to predict weather, and CNN reported on May 2 that 30 NWS offices no longer had a lead meteorologist. 'This has never happened before. We've always been an agency that has provided 24/7 service to the American public,' Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, told ABC News. 'The risk is extremely high — if cuts like this continue to the National Weather Service, people will die.' Weather forecasts: Trump cuts leave National Weather Service scrambling to cover vital shifts Project 2025, the conservative roadmap and wishlist from right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation, calls for NOAA to be broken up due to its position in the "climate change alarm industry" and says the government should charge for National Weather Service data that is currently free. Trump disavowed Project 2025 during his campaign, but many of his initiatives mirror or surpass the project's goals and he has placed some of its writers into administrative positions including key author Russell Vought, now the Trump administration's budget office director. The study concluded, after analyzing coverage of all storms during the 2024 season, that AccuWeather was, on average: 6.2% more accurate than the NHC and other sources for track forecasts 8.9% more accurate for storms that made landfall 8.6% more accurate for landfall location prediction 37.8% more accurate for landfall intensity forecasts 4% more accurate for maximum wind intensity forecasts Kantar said AccuWeather's storm track and intensity forecasts extended 25 hours further into the future than the NHC and all other sources for all 2024 storms, and 31 hours further into the future for those that made U.S. landfall. It also praised AccuWeather's proprietary RealImpact Scale for communicating the potential dangers of hurricanes as compared to the standard Saffir-Simpson Scale, which only measures windspeed. "We are very gratified by these results, which further support our mission of saving lives and protecting property," said AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers in a release. "This historic report marks the first time a third-party has verified that another source has been more accurate and more effective in predicting hurricanes and their impacts than NOAA's National Hurricane Center." Not everyone took the report at face value. "With professional respect to my colleagues at AccuWeather, this is a study *paid for* by AccuWeather that uses highly questionable methods and makes a number of false claims," Matthew Cappucci, a meteorologist for the Washington Post, in a series of posts on X. "AccuWeather claims to win 'all landfalling storms,' presumably with a U.S. bias... ...which allows them to completely throw out their absolutely erroneous forecast of a high-end Category 2 slamming into Florida. (It died over the Yucatan as a T.S.)," he said, referring to Tropical Storm Sara, a November 2024 storm that made landfall in Central America. "Case in point," Cappucci said. "AccuWeather wants to make a case that they were right from the beginning with regard to Francine, but then sweep many other forecasts, like that of Sara, under the rug." Dr. Levi Cowan, FSU meteorology grad and owner of forecast site pointed out that the report analyzed forecasts at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 84 and 108 hours from the issued time. "But @NHC_Atlantic issues forecasts at lead times of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours, making it unclear exactly how this analysis was done," he said in an X post. "Was interpolation of some data to a different set of lead times performed? Was mean absolute error or some other metric used? We don't know, because the report is opaque." In a release, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said that the important foundational work of the National Hurricane Center should in no way be disregarded. But AccuWeather, unlike most other weather services, uses its own data as well as data from the NHC. "The agency provides a vital life-saving service," he said. "Our work complements this effort and state and local agencies and companies that need the most accurate forecast of hurricane tracks and impacts ranging from storm surge to rain flooding to tornadoes to wind and water damage, we are not discouraging the use of the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service forecasts, but if you want the best and access to expert consulting meteorologists that you can speak to at any time 24/7, AccuWeather is the answer." AccuWeather is predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could bring: Named storms: 13 to 18 Hurricanes: 7-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 Direct U.S. impacts: 3-6 NOAA is predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season. Forecasters predict: Named storms: 13-19 Hurricanes: 6-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 Colorado State University meteorologists predict: 17 named storms 9 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger hedged his bets and predicted that the 2025 season has a 50-50 chance of landing in the ranges of: 16-21 tropical storms 7-9 hurricanes 3-4 major hurricanes Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY, and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida contributed to this story. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Is AccuWeather more accurate than NHC? Critics call study unscientific
