As Saharan dust moves through Florida, National Hurricane Center watching tropical wave

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2 days ago

As Saharan dust keeps Florida skies hazy, all is quiet in the tropics.
Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a system off Florida's coast for potential development. Although it brought some rain to the state, the system was no longer seen as a potential for tropical development later in the day June 4.
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On June 5, the tropical outlook map shows no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days.
That doesn't mean all will be smooth sailing in Florida. Along with the Saharan dust, showers and thunderstorms can be expected to continue in some locations, along with higher temperatures and a heat index in the triple digits.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 5:
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 17 mph.
Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month."
➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said.
"The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year.
"All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded."
The GFS model, which stands for Global Forecast System, is the weather prediction model operated by the National Weather Service. In addition to providing data for a wide range of forecasts, it's also used for hurricane tracking.
Here's what you can expect June 5:
Pensacola, western Panhandle: There's a 50% chance for showers Thursday. High temperatures today will range from 86 to 91 degrees and are forecast to climb even higher June 6, between 88 and 93, with a heat index in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Scattered to widespread showers and storms expected again Thursday afternoon with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Jacksonville, Northeast Florida: Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expect through next week. Heat index Jung 6-8 could near 105.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms are forecast into the afternoon/evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. Expect frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, 1-2 inches or more in 90 minutes. There is a 10-20% chance of rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch from Titusville to Poinciana and to the north. Seasonable temperatures are expected today over east-central Florida, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and heat index values between 96 and 101.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida: With Saharan Dust moving over South Florida June 5, chances for rain will decrease compared to the last couple of days, especially across the East Coast metro area. This will also result in warmer temperatures in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, west-southwest Florida: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
A "wall of dust" is moving through Florida, according to AccuWeather and is expected to spread over more of the Southeast today.
Look for vivid sunrises and sunsets, along with hazy skies.
The dust traveled across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert. Dust in the atmosphere helps prevent the formation or strengthening of tropical systems.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Center update: Tropical wave, Saharan dust, Florida forecast