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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
As Saharan dust moves through Florida, National Hurricane Center watching tropical wave
As Saharan dust keeps Florida skies hazy, all is quiet in the tropics. Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a system off Florida's coast for potential development. Although it brought some rain to the state, the system was no longer seen as a potential for tropical development later in the day June 4. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location On June 5, the tropical outlook map shows no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days. That doesn't mean all will be smooth sailing in Florida. Along with the Saharan dust, showers and thunderstorms can be expected to continue in some locations, along with higher temperatures and a heat index in the triple digits. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 5: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 17 mph. Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network. "None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month." ➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said. "The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded." The GFS model, which stands for Global Forecast System, is the weather prediction model operated by the National Weather Service. In addition to providing data for a wide range of forecasts, it's also used for hurricane tracking. Here's what you can expect June 5: Pensacola, western Panhandle: There's a 50% chance for showers Thursday. High temperatures today will range from 86 to 91 degrees and are forecast to climb even higher June 6, between 88 and 93, with a heat index in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Scattered to widespread showers and storms expected again Thursday afternoon with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Jacksonville, Northeast Florida: Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expect through next week. Heat index Jung 6-8 could near 105. Daytona Beach to Stuart, east-central Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms are forecast into the afternoon/evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. Expect frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, 1-2 inches or more in 90 minutes. There is a 10-20% chance of rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch from Titusville to Poinciana and to the north. Seasonable temperatures are expected today over east-central Florida, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and heat index values between 96 and 101. West Palm Beach to Naples, South Florida: With Saharan Dust moving over South Florida June 5, chances for rain will decrease compared to the last couple of days, especially across the East Coast metro area. This will also result in warmer temperatures in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Fort Myers to Sarasota, west-southwest Florida: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. A "wall of dust" is moving through Florida, according to AccuWeather and is expected to spread over more of the Southeast today. Look for vivid sunrises and sunsets, along with hazy skies. The dust traveled across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert. Dust in the atmosphere helps prevent the formation or strengthening of tropical systems. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Center update: Tropical wave, Saharan dust, Florida forecast
India Today
26-05-2025
- Climate
- India Today
Bharat Forecast System launch today, set to double weather prediction accuracy
The Ministry of Earth Sciences is all set to launch an indigenously built High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) - Bharat Forecast System, Dr Jitendra Singh will launch the advanced weather forecasting system developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in new system will have a better resolution and geographical coverage. BFS will operate at a 6-km resolution. This resolution is advanced in comparison to the previous 12-km Global Forecast System (GFS) used in India so far. This finer resolution will help in more precise predictions of localised weather events like heavy rainfall and The indigenously developed Bharat Forecast System is powered by the Arka supercomputer. This supercomputer has 11.77 petaflops and 33 petabytes of supercomputer is located at IITM, Pune, and will massively reduce forecasting time compared to the older Pratyush supercomputer. It integrates data from 40 Doppler Weather Radars, with plans to expand to 100 for nationwide nowcasts. Nowcasts are 2-hour forecasts which are considered the most is primarily a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, but recently integrated AI and machine learning (ML) to enhance its working. AI models require high-resolution, spatially, and temporarily consistent data, which BFS can provide, but data-sharing constraints (example, health data for climate-sensitive diseases) pose most of the global models, BFS data will remain accessible to researchers worldwide, fostering collaborative advancements in meteorological science. This open-access data will position India as one of the leaders in global weather prediction research, particularly for tropical a collaboration with ISRO for satellite data like those processed by INSAT, and IRS series and international partners like the UK Met Office will further strengthen data assimilation and more accurate weather Watch
Axios
21-03-2025
- Climate
- Axios
NOAA cuts more key weather data gathering after layoffs
The National Weather Service is reducing weather balloon launches at six more locations in the U.S. and temporarily suspending them at two more places due to staffing shortages, the agency announced Thursday afternoon. Why it matters: Weather balloons, typically launched twice per day at NWS local forecast offices, provide crucial data for weather forecasting. The suspensions and reductions in balloon launch frequency come on the heels of other cuts made to at least three locations in the wake of NOAA layoffs and buyouts carried out beginning on Feb. 27. Zoom in: The weather agency, which is part of the Department of Commerce, announced it is suspending weather balloon launches at Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota, "due to a lack of Weather Forecast Office (WFO) staffing." The agency is also reducing the frequency of weather balloon launches at six other locations in the West, Midwest and Plains states due to lack of staffing. Typically, the agency launches the balloons, which are outfitted with weather instruments known as radiosondes, twice a day. As they rise through the atmosphere, these balloons gather data on wind speed and direction, humidity, air pressure, and other weather parameters. This upper-air weather data is then fed into computer models used for weather prediction. Forecasters also utilize such data for shorter-term weather predictions including the potential for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and heavy snowfall. The reduction of available data could lead to less accurate forecasts, they say. The intrigue: After the layoffs, the agency announced cuts in weather balloon service in Kotzebue, Alaska, and reductions in balloon launch frequency in Albany, New York, and Portland, Maine. Taken together, the loss of all this balloon data is likely to reduce the accuracy of computer models not just for U.S. computer models like the Global Forecast System, but also for other nations whose systems rely on data gathered worldwide. This would include the world-leading models run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF. NOAA is preparing for further layoffs of up to 1,029 employees, in addition to more early retirements. This could further hit NWS' services and make it harder for the agency to fulfill its mission of protecting life and property.
