National Hurricane Center watching 2 tropical waves in Atlantic as Pacific activity picks up

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3 days ago

While the eastern Pacific is active, conditions remain quiet in the tropical Atlantic and near Florida, with no activity expected over the next seven days.
The National Hurricane Center is watching two tropical waves.
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The first hurricane of the 2025 season is expected to develop soon west of Mexico in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Barbara is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane today, June 9. Tropical Storm Cosme is expected to near hurricane strength today, before weakening June 10.
Another large plume of dust moving off Africa could reach Florida around June 13, according to AccuWeather.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 9:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic:
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave located at 37W from 02N-12N in the central Atlantic is moving west at 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave east of the Caribbean Sea has its axis along 57W south of 17N, is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, before a storm is approaching.
While conditions in the Atlantic basin have been quiet since the June 1 start of the 2025 hurricane season, that's not the case in the eastern Pacific.
Currently, there are two tropical storms — Barbara and Cosme — west of Mexico and a tropical depression is expected to form later in the week or during the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Alvin formed in late May.
➤ First hurricane of 2025 season expected to develop in Pacific. Where are 2 tropical storms?
Tropical Storm Barbara is expected to become a hurricane later today, June 9.
Tropical Storm Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength later today or tonight before weakening June 10.
Historically, tropical cyclones form close to the U.S. in June, with the most common locations being the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"None of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month."
➤ WeatherTiger: False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
The exception is the GFS model, which is predicting a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward, Truchelut said.
"The GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year," Truchelut said. "All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded."
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms forecast. A slight risk of severe weather expected through tonight.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers expected to slowly diminish through the morning but storms could develop this afternoon and into the evening. Some storms could be strong, bringing wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter-sized hail.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along and north of I-10. Main threats with strong storms will be damaging winds around 60 mph, frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall and possible minor flooding in areas that have received multiple days of rain.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: It'll be hot and humid, near 90 at the coast and low to mid 90s inland. Peak heat indices range between 99 and 104. UV Index will be extreme. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening lightning storms forecast.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: A few isolated storms will be possible across interior today, while hot and sunny conditions continue across metro areas.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: After a few days of low rain chances, a change in the weather pattern is on the horizon. Increasing moisture will allow for higher chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Center tracking 2 tropical waves. Florida forecast, radar