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AllAfrica
a day ago
- Politics
- AllAfrica
Taiwan's future precarious—with or without US-China conflict
Taiwan has often compared itself to being a 'shrimp between two whales.' That expression has never been more apt than today with the US and China – which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory – locked in a standoff over the future of the island. At an event I attended some years ago, a Chinese scholar remarked when the issue of the US-China rivalry came up that they believed there was an African saying: 'When two elephants are either having a fight, or making love, the grass around them gets trampled.' It was best for everyone, they advised the other attendees, for the two superpowers to have a workmanlike, unexciting relationship rather than take the risk of things getting too friendly or hostile. But whether or not the current period of conflict continues or the US and China magically become more aligned, the challenges facing Taiwan are severe. First off, Taiwan is itself in a period of domestic turbulence. The government of Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, was elected in January 2024 with a little over 40% of the vote. This was considerably less than his predecessor from the same party, Tsai Ing-wen. One of the main opposition leaders, Ke Wen-je of the Taiwan People's party, has since then been arrested on corruption charges. He is accused of accepting half a million US dollars in bribes during his term as mayor of Taipei, as well as misreporting campaign finances during his presidential run. Most recently, in late July, recall votes were held where citizens in 24 districts of Taiwan chose whether or not to remove their legislator from office. This is the result of a law in Taiwan stipulating a new vote if 10% of the electorate in a specific constituency express dissatisfaction at the previous outcome. Activists supporting the government mobilised to achieve this. The votes seem to be associated with frustration that, while the Democratic Progressive party controls the presidency, it cannot get legislation through a parliament dominated by its opponents. All of the votes were directed at seats held by the Kuomintang, the main opposition party in recent years, which is accused by its critics of being pro-China. Not a single seat was overturned. When the steady nationalism of Xi Jinping's leadership in Beijing is factored in, with its conviction that the global influence of the West is slowly declining and the East – dominated by China – is in the nascent, one can see why the issue of Taiwan might look more precarious and worrying. This is regardless of the various predictions that 2027 is the date that China has set to go for reunification. For the US, President Donald Trump's fixation has remained on correcting what he sees as China's unfair trade advantages with its largest single economic partner – something he has long talked about. The White House proclaimed in March, when the first set of trade negotiations with China concluded after tariffs were imposed by both sides, that: 'for too long, unfair trade practices and America's massive trade deficit with China have fuelled the offshoring of American jobs and the decline of our manufacturing sector.' The aim at the most recent set of talks in Stockholm, Sweden, in late July was to drive towards a new deal. Trump has also reportedly talked of taking a huge delegation of business people to China at some point later in 2025. This is despite the fact that so far since his inauguration in January, and despite many reasons to talk, Xi and Trump have yet to physically meet. Taiwanese people are therefore right to feel increasingly uneasy. Under Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, they received verbal commitments that the US would come to Taiwan's aid if it was attacked. This was not formal US policy, which has long maintained an ambiguous stance on Taiwan. Ambiguity has returned with a vengeance under Trump. His secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, has said that the US stands by Taiwan. But these days in Washington all roads lead to the Oval Office, and Trump's stance is far harder to predict. If China were to dangle a trade deal in front of the US president – committing to buy more US goods, put in more investment that is non-problematic on security grounds in the US and generally abide by American demands – would Trump be able to resist? It could be presented as a historic achievement, a new concordant between the world's two greatest powers who had seemed until then set on conflict and clash. There might even be the much-desired Nobel Peace Prize in it for the US leader. Trump, for his part, appears increasingly reluctant to back Taiwan in ways that risk provoking Beijing. Lai delayed a trip to Latin America in July after the Trump administration reportedly told him to cancel a proposed stopover in New York. And the US cancelled a meeting with Taiwan's defense minister one month earlier. The likelihood remains that, if a real crisis occurs, then the US will climb down from the middle wall and do something to defend Taiwan. Any trade deal between Beijing and Washington will also probably be a highly circumscribed one. China is not an easy partner to negotiate with, and it is unlikely to offer Trump the kind of capitulation he is seeking. Even so, these are very unpredictable times. The key calculation going forward will be the simple one of what the US gains and loses from all its relationships – and that includes Taiwan. Kerry Brown is professor of Chinese Politics and director of the Lau China Institute, King's College London This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The Hindu
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
What is the status of the ‘recall' vote in Taiwan?
The story so far: On July 26, Taiwanese citizens voted to recall 24 Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party lawmakers from parliament (Legislative Yuan), but in round one, all 24 members managed to retain their seats with people in their districts voting against their removal. The second round is slated for late August. The Great Recall vote, supported by the Bluebird Movement and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), accused KMT of being in cahoots with China and of threatening national security. When did the movement begin? The movement started in 2024, as local protesters accused the opposition of blocking DPP bills and pushing controversial laws later declared unconstitutional. The movement failed to garner 25% support to recall opposition lawmakers in each district; DPP needed six KMT seats recalled to gain a legislative majority. Additionally, the second recall voting against seven seats of the KMT lawmakers will be conducted later this month. The DPP is pressured to get all seats in the upcoming recall vote. KMT, after its survival, is calling for a reshuffle of the cabinet. What is the removal vote about? The Taiwan Public Officials Election and Recall Act is a rarely used constitutional instrument, permitting citizens to remove elected officials. The act has three stages of checks to successfully remove an office holder. The first step requires a petition signed by at least 1% of the electorate, the second stage needs 10% support from the electorate, and in the final stage, 25% of the district's eligible voters need to support the recall. After the Bluebird Movement, the DPP petitioned against KMT legislative lawmakers, accusing them of undermining national security by deferring to the Communist Party of China, and for passing bills without following procedural mandates. All 24 KMT lawmakers retained office by getting a majority of votes against their recall in their respective districts. Why was the recall petition pushed? The recall is a consequence of a divided government in Taiwan, with two different political parties leading the executive and legislative branches of government. The structural imbalance in the composition of parliament made the ruling party obsolete in fulfilling its legislative duties. Taiwan follows the unicameral system with 113 seats in its Legislative Yuan. DPP under former President Tsai Ing-wen enjoyed a majority in both the executive and legislative branches. This changed in the 2024 elections. The DPP's presidential candidate William Lai Ching-te won with 40.1% vote. But DPP lost its legislative majority with 51 seats against KMT's 52 seats and its ally Taiwan People's Party's (TPP) 8 seats, bringing the opposition's total to 60. With this legislative majority, the opposition party blocked crucial bills proposed by the DPP. What ignited the civic movement was the hasty approval of controversial bills by the opposition. The KMT introduced several bills and amendments that undermined the judicial and executive branches' power, while awarding extrajudicial powers to the legislature. The proposed legislative reform bills ignored parliamentary deliberation and directly sent the bill to the plenary session to be passed. The Bluebird Movement, named after the street where the protest happened, was ignited by the egregious violation of the constitution. In May 2024, 1,00,000 protesters took to the streets of Taiwan calling against the violation of the law by the opposition. Has it further polarised Taiwan? The progressive recall vote, which empowered citizens to hold legislators accountable, has backfired by further polarising the parties and their support base. KMT's survival raised the question whether the recall was even necessary, and if the movement was politically motivated by the DPP. Femy Francis is a project associate with Area Studies-China, at NIAS, Bengaluru.
AFP
30-07-2025
- Politics
- AFP
Baseless posts about Taiwanese army recruit from Africa spread online
The Douyin post published on July 5, 2025 shares an image taken from a report by broadcaster TVBS showing a black man in a Taiwanese military uniform. "Due to recruitment difficulties in the Taiwan province, this black man was able to join the Taiwanese army," text on the image reads in simplified Chinese. The post's caption largely repeats the false claim and has been shared more than 7,500 times. Image Screenshot of the false post taken on July 24, 2025, with a red X added by AFP As pressure from China increases, Taiwanese politicians and security experts have been talking about bringing in foreign fighters to help fill troops shortage, according to The Telegraph and Radio Free Asia (archived here and here). The proposal, however, is still in its early stages. Taiwan's Defence Minister Wellington Koo previously said in 2024 they have not considered this option (archived link). Taiwan lives under constant fear of a Chinese invasion, as Beijing claims the island as part of its territory to be reunited one day, by force if necessary. Taiwan approved two separate pay increases for voluntary military service members in March and June in a bid to address a manpower shortage and retain soldiers in the face of Chinese military pressure (archived link). Under former president Tsai Ing-wen, the self-ruled island also extended the mandatory military service for men to one year up from four months and allowed women into reservist training (archived link). The false claim also surfaced elsewhere on Weibo, X and TikTok. Keyword searches on Google found the screenshot was taken from a video report by Taiwanese broadcaster TVBS titled "African man in army uniform! Man from African ally came to Taiwan and joined military academy, graduated as second lieutenant" (archived link). It said the man is a military exchange student from Eswatini -- the only African nation that maintains formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan (archived link). The scene in the false post can be seen at the 10-second mark in the TVBS report. Image Screenshot comparison of the false Douyin post (left) and original clip from TVBS news (right) The R.O.C. Military Academy told AFP that the student -- Lindikhaya Xavier Manyisa -- has since returned home and did not join Taiwan's army. Local media also reported in previous years that the academy accepted other students from Eswatini under an exchange programme (archived here and here). Taiwan Factcheck Center has also debunked the false claim (archived link). AFP has previously debunked misinformation about the Taiwan military here.
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Nikkei Asia
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Taiwan's Tsai wraps up trip highlighting growing European relations
KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan -- Taiwan's foremost stateswoman, ex-President Tsai Ing-wen, this week wrapped up a visit to Europe that underscored growing momentum in Taipei's pushback against Chinese attempts to isolate the island. Tsai, who led Taiwan from 2016 to 2024, toured Lithuania, Denmark and the United Kingdom for 10 days until Monday, meeting with prominent lawmakers and political leaders past and present. Though she is no longer in office, her trip appeared to mark a concerted drive to counter Beijing's efforts to sideline Taiwan on the world stage.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Danish minister heads to China, days after Taiwan ex-leader's contested Denmark trip
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen will travel to China on Saturday for high-level meetings, just days after a visit by former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen to Copenhagen drew strong condemnation from Beijing. Rasmussen is due to meet China's foreign minister Wang Yi and trade minister Wang Wentao on a three-day visit marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries, a Danish foreign ministry statement said on Thursday. The visit comes after Tsai Ing-wen this week met Danish lawmakers and gave a speech at a democracy summit in Copenhagen that accused China of intensifying cyber attacks and military exercises against Taiwan. She also criticized what she referred to as China's "expansionist ambitions." She was attending the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, organised by former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen's Alliance of Democracies, seen by senior Taiwan leaders as an important venue to get Taiwan's message out to the world. The Chinese embassy in Copenhagen criticised Denmark for hosting Tsai and said it disregarded "international consensus on the one-China principle". "The Taiwan question is purely China's internal affairs that allow no interference by any foreign government, organization or individual," it said in an emailed comment. Tsai, who is also visiting Britain this week, has become a symbol of Taiwan's defiance against China's military threats. Denmark, like most countries, has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but maintains informal relations with the democratically-governed island. "Our one-China policy remains firm, while it is clear that we do not see everything the same way, and on some points China poses a challenge," said Rasmussen, who has promoted a pragmatic approach to China as foreign minister and earlier as prime minister. Diplomatic relations with China reached a low point after a visit by Dalai Lama to Copenhagen in 2009. Ties improved when Denmark later accepted a Chinese offer to send two pandas to Denmark as part of China's so-called "panda diplomacy."
