Latest news with #TupolevTu-22M3
Newsweek
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
How Putin Might Respond to 'Russia's Pearl Harbor'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Ukrainian drone strikes against air bases deep inside Russia are grounds for a nuclear response, a Kremlin-backed newspaper has reported amid anticipation over what Moscow will do after what has been described as the country's "Pearl Harbor." The comments by Russian political analyst Sergei Markov to Moskovsky Komsomolets followed the revelation from Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) that its drone operation had struck four air bases and 41 strategic bombers, inflicting $7 billion worth of damage. While his remarks do not reflect the Kremlin's position, eyes will be on Moscow's response as Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Istanbul on Monday to discuss how to end the war started by Vladimir Putin. "We can expect a great deal of sound and fury from Moscow," Keir Giles, from the London-based think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek on Monday. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment. Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers and a Tu-160 strategic bomber fly over Red Square in this illustrative image from June 24, 2020. Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers and a Tu-160 strategic bomber fly over Red Square in this illustrative image from June 24, It Matters Pro-Russian Telegram channels have compared Ukraine's daring strikes on Sunday to the Imperial Japanese Navy's attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. Also making the comparison was The Washington Post's Max Boot in an op-ed that which said "the Russian high command must have been as shocked as the Americans were in 1941." Pro-Russian military bloggers and some officials blamed Russian leadership for failing to protect military infrastructure as far away as Irkutsk in Siberia in an attack that delivered a stunning PR coup for Kyiv that could also risk escalation as stalled peace talks restart on Monday. What To Know In an operation codenamed "Spider's Web" said to be 18 months in the planning, Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against air bases in Russia on Sunday. Ukraine's SBU sources said first-person view (FPV) drone strikes hit Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast—2,500 miles away from the front line in Ukraine. Also targeted were Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast, Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. This image from March 25, 2015, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow. This image from March 25, 2015, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in SBU sources said 41 Russian aircraft were hit including an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft and Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers used to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine. The drones had been transported to Russia, stored in trucks carrying cargo units with retractable roofs that were parked near the air bases and launched remotely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones had destroyed over one third (34 percent) of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers. Giles, senior consulting fellow, from Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program, said that following the strikes, Russia will again emphasize the risks of uncontrollable escalation in its messaging to the West. This will see Moscow try to create the impression that their nuclear forces are still on a hair trigger and any further operational successes by Ukraine could lead to all-out war with NATO. He said Moscow will work hard to convince the U.S. to rein Ukraine in to prevent any further damage to Russia's means of bombarding Ukrainian cities with long range missiles. Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone rising from a cargo truck and heading towards Russia's Belaya Airbase. The drone launch and airbase hit were over 4000 km (2500 mi) from Ukraine. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025 To a certain extent, the more important question is how the United States reacts, and how eager it is to take Moscow's side and constrain Ukraine, Giles added. The Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukraine's drone strikes targeted air bases in Irkutsk, and Murmansk oblasts and caused several aircraft to catch fire but claimed that Russian forces repelled all strikes against the bases in Ivanovo and Ryazan. Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business told Newsweek he did not believe Russia would choose to escalate and that Moscow is likely to downplay the significance of the attacks so as not to admit a setback. Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at LSE IDEAS, The London School of Economics think tank told Newsweek that Ukraine had achieved its greatest tactical success since late 2022, which diplomatically, means Moscow has no incentives left to agree to a ceasefire. Instead, Russia will not yield on demands concerning Ukraine's NATO membership and territories it has claimed to have annexed, he said. Militarily, Russia's options are grinding down Ukrainian forces and waiting for the outcome of the expected Russian summer offensive as well as continued missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, military and civilian infrastructure, Vuksanovic added. What People Are Saying Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Chatham House: "We should expect a repetition of Russia's standard practice of presenting air and missile bombardment of Ukrainian cities as 'retaliation' for the attacks over the weekend, even though in reality these strikes are planned long in advance." Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business: "I do not believe that Russia will escalate. On the front line in Ukraine, the Russian army progresses little by little— this is their main objective. The attack on their facilities in Russia is significant and humiliating, but it is not an invasion." What Happens Next Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which said Russia will likely struggle to replace the damaged and destroyed aircraft. The strikes are likely to up the ante during Monday's negotiations in Istanbul.
Forbes
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Friday, April 4. Russia's War On Ukraine: News And Information From Ukraine
Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 1,136. Kryvyi Rih. On April 4, Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on a residential area in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing at least 16 people, including six children, and injuring over 50, Governor Serhii Lysak reported. Kharkiv. Russia launched a barrage of drones in an overnight attack on Friday, killing at least four people and injuring 35 civilians in a residential area of Ukraine's second-largest city. Dnipropetrovsk region. A Russian ballistic missile strike on an industrial facility in Kryvyi Rih on April 2 in central Ukraine killed four people. Zaporizhzhya region. A Russian drone strike on April 1 in Ukraine's southern province killed one civilian. Donetsk region. On April 2, Russian forces launched multiple strikes on residential areas in the front line city of Pokrovsk, killing one civilian and wounding six others. A Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crashed on April 2 in the country's eastern Irkutsk region. Before 2022, Moscow had nearly 60 of these Cold War-era warplanes, designed to carry cruise missiles and nuclear warheads. The latest crash is the fifth confirmed loss for Russia's strategic air forces and the first since August, 2024. Russia captured nearly 50 square miles of Ukrainian territory in March, marking the slowest advance since last summer. Although the pace of the Kremlin's gains has slowed since its peak of 280 square miles captured last November, the land captured in March is nearly equal to the territorial gains of the first quarter of 2024. Russia's gains have been concentrated in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and the southern Zaporizhzhya region. Russian media outlet Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian, has confirmed more than 100,000 Russian military deaths in the war in Ukraine. The outlet's methodology, based on analysis of publicly available sources such as social media and local reports, reveals a far higher toll than Kremlin figures, with nearly 3,000 new deaths documented every two weeks. Mediazona's experts estimate that available data accounts for only 45–65% of the Kremlin's actual military death toll. In an interview last week with European news channels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin 'will soon die and that's a fact.' Zelenskyy did not explain what his prediction involved but said that it was 'dangerous' for the United States to ease pressure on Russia with an end to the war so close. U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth will not attend next week's Ramstein-format meeting of Ukraine's partners in Brussels, marking the first absence of a Pentagon chief since the format's establishment in 2022. The summit, co-chaired by the U.K. and Germany on April 11, will proceed without Hegseth, who will not participate even virtually. His absence aligns with U.S. President Donald Trump's strategy of reducing U.S. support for Ukraine while pursuing a ceasefire and peace treaty between Kyiv and Moscow. Hegseth, who attended the previous Ramstein summit in February, has expressed a change in U.S. policy, which now views Ukraine's return to pre-2014 borders and NATO membership as unrealistic. Moscow plans to increase its military forces by 150,000 personnel in 2025. According to Pavel Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Russia has no difficulty recruiting personnel for this buildup but will not deploy them all at once. Instead, he stated, Russia is likely to intensify pressure on specific fronts where feasible, particularly as discussions on a ceasefire continue. Nonetheless, Russia remains largely uninterested in halting the conflict aside from potential naval considerations. Ukraine has received $3.8 billion in aid from the European Union under the Ukraine Facility program. With the latest disbursement, total EU support has reached $21.6 billion. The funding comes as Kyiv continues reforms in anti-corruption and fiscal governance. Additionally, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will provide Ukraine $1 billion in 2025 to rebuild its power infrastructure, left in limbo since the halt of USAID funding. Ukraine also is awaiting a further delivery of F-16 jets from Europe. Russia's oil and gas revenues decreased for a second consecutive month, falling 17% since March, 2024, to $11.6 billion, as U.S. sanctions continue to restrict the Kremlin's key income source. With crude exports facing discounts and the ruble appreciating nearly 15% against the dollar since early 2024, Moscow's dollar-denominated energy earnings have significantly declined. The Russian finance ministry now faces a widening fiscal gap, with the country's benchmark crude oil blend known as Urals trading nearly 30% below budget projections. Economists warn that this shortfall, which could reach $21.5 billion this year, might compel the Kremlin either to deplete its dwindling sovereign wealth fund or devalue the ruble. Culture Front. Russian forces have destroyed or damaged at least 1,419 cultural sites and 2,233 cultural infrastructure objects across Ukraine. The most considerable damage has been caused in the eastern and southern Kharkiv and Kherson regions, where 329 and 279 cultural sites, respectively, were damaged. Accurate estimates of the destruction in the occupied territories, however, remain difficult as Russian forces continue to deny independent experts access to the sites. By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks
