How Putin Might Respond to 'Russia's Pearl Harbor'

Newsweek

02-06-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Ukrainian drone strikes against air bases deep inside Russia are grounds for a nuclear response, a Kremlin-backed newspaper has reported amid anticipation over what Moscow will do after what has been described as the country's "Pearl Harbor."
The comments by Russian political analyst Sergei Markov to Moskovsky Komsomolets followed the revelation from Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) that its drone operation had struck four air bases and 41 strategic bombers, inflicting $7 billion worth of damage.
While his remarks do not reflect the Kremlin's position, eyes will be on Moscow's response as Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Istanbul on Monday to discuss how to end the war started by Vladimir Putin.
"We can expect a great deal of sound and fury from Moscow," Keir Giles, from the London-based think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek on Monday. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.
Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers and a Tu-160 strategic bomber fly over Red Square in this illustrative image from June 24, 2020.
Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers and a Tu-160 strategic bomber fly over Red Square in this illustrative image from June 24, 2020.Why It Matters
Pro-Russian Telegram channels have compared Ukraine's daring strikes on Sunday to the Imperial Japanese Navy's attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.
Also making the comparison was The Washington Post's Max Boot in an op-ed that which said "the Russian high command must have been as shocked as the Americans were in 1941."
Pro-Russian military bloggers and some officials blamed Russian leadership for failing to protect military infrastructure as far away as Irkutsk in Siberia in an attack that delivered a stunning PR coup for Kyiv that could also risk escalation as stalled peace talks restart on Monday.
What To Know
In an operation codenamed "Spider's Web" said to be 18 months in the planning, Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against air bases in Russia on Sunday.
Ukraine's SBU sources said first-person view (FPV) drone strikes hit Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast—2,500 miles away from the front line in Ukraine.
Also targeted were Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast, Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast.
This image from March 25, 2015, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow.
This image from March 25, 2015, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow.The SBU sources said 41 Russian aircraft were hit including an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft and Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers used to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine.
The drones had been transported to Russia, stored in trucks carrying cargo units with retractable roofs that were parked near the air bases and launched remotely.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones had destroyed over one third (34 percent) of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers.
Giles, senior consulting fellow, from Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program, said that following the strikes, Russia will again emphasize the risks of uncontrollable escalation in its messaging to the West.
This will see Moscow try to create the impression that their nuclear forces are still on a hair trigger and any further operational successes by Ukraine could lead to all-out war with NATO.
He said Moscow will work hard to convince the U.S. to rein Ukraine in to prevent any further damage to Russia's means of bombarding Ukrainian cities with long range missiles.
Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone rising from a cargo truck and heading towards Russia's Belaya Airbase.
The drone launch and airbase hit were over 4000 km (2500 mi) from Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/XU7bCzV5QJ — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025
To a certain extent, the more important question is how the United States reacts, and how eager it is to take Moscow's side and constrain Ukraine, Giles added.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukraine's drone strikes targeted air bases in Irkutsk, and Murmansk oblasts and caused several aircraft to catch fire but claimed that Russian forces repelled all strikes against the bases in Ivanovo and Ryazan.
Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business told Newsweek he did not believe Russia would choose to escalate and that Moscow is likely to downplay the significance of the attacks so as not to admit a setback.
Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at LSE IDEAS, The London School of Economics think tank told Newsweek that Ukraine had achieved its greatest tactical success since late 2022, which diplomatically, means Moscow has no incentives left to agree to a ceasefire.
Instead, Russia will not yield on demands concerning Ukraine's NATO membership and territories it has claimed to have annexed, he said.
Militarily, Russia's options are grinding down Ukrainian forces and waiting for the outcome of the expected Russian summer offensive as well as continued missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, military and civilian infrastructure, Vuksanovic added.
What People Are Saying
Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Chatham House: "We should expect a repetition of Russia's standard practice of presenting air and missile bombardment of Ukrainian cities as 'retaliation' for the attacks over the weekend, even though in reality these strikes are planned long in advance."
Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business: "I do not believe that Russia will escalate. On the front line in Ukraine, the Russian army progresses little by little— this is their main objective. The attack on their facilities in Russia is significant and humiliating, but it is not an invasion."
What Happens Next
Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which said Russia will likely struggle to replace the damaged and destroyed aircraft.
The strikes are likely to up the ante during Monday's negotiations in Istanbul.