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Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's April industrial production growth likely slumped to 1.2% amid sectoral weakness: Report
AI-generated image India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is projected to have slowed down to 1.2 per cent year-on-year in April 2025, down from 3 per cent in March, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI). The deceleration is largely attributed to weakened activity in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The report highlights that April's estimated IIP will be significantly below the 5.2 per cent growth recorded in April 2024, indicating a broader slowdown in economic activity across the country, news agency ANI reported. UBI noted that it had anticipated this decline in its March IIP report, citing rising global trade uncertainties during the month, particularly due to reciprocal tariff hikes by the United States- described as the steepest since World War II. 'We estimate that around 30 to 35 per cent of the IIP is export-linked, which is expected to face pressure until greater trade clarity emerges,' the report stated. The official IIP data for April is set to be released on May 28, providing a clearer picture of the country's manufacturing and industrial momentum. High-frequency indicators for April showed mixed trends amid trade and tariff uncertainty. While E-way bill generation and toll collections recorded double-digit year-on-year growth, the automobile sector reported a decline. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Undo Additionally, petroleum consumption fell for the third consecutive month. India's merchandise trade deficit widened sharply to $26.4 billion in April, compared to USD 19.2 billion in the same period last year. Construction-related indicators also showed signs of weakness, with a moderation in steel consumption and cement production. The core sector, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, down from 6.9 per cent a year earlier. Among the eight core industries, refinery products, fertilisers, and crude oil posted negative annual growth. Though cement, coal, steel, electricity, and natural gas production remained in positive territory, growth was markedly slower than in March. A monthly comparison reveals a contraction in all sectors except natural gas, with double-digit month-on-month declines in coal, refinery products, cement, steel, and fertilisers. The report suggests that aggregate demand remained weak in April, continuing a subdued trend from previous months. Consumer goods production is expected to turn negative, following a flat reading in March, with demand largely urban-driven while rural consumption likely weakened further. Capital goods output may see some improvement due to a favourable base effect, given the low growth of 2.8 per cent in April 2024—a period impacted by reduced government spending amid elections. However, intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods output is expected to have declined in April, with sharp month-on-month falls in cement (down 16.7 per cent) and steel (down 10.0 per cent) production. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
India Gazette
2 days ago
- Business
- India Gazette
Rupee to gain support from a weaker Dollar Index and strong FPI inflows: Report
New Delhi [India] May 27 (ANI): Buoyed by a weaker US dollar index (DXY) and expectations of strong foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows, the Indian rupee is likely to get support in the coming days, says a report by Union Bank of India (UBI). These factors could provide a cushion for the rupee amid global uncertainties and volatile oil prices. 'Rupee to gain support from a weaker DXY and anticipated strong FPI inflows,' the report added. The report observes that the Indian Rupee is becoming more stable as most domestic issues have now settled, and signs of improvement in global conditions are visible. However, the report adds that any fresh escalation in cross-border tensions or enhanced trade tariff issues could weigh negatively on rupee sentiment. The Rupee briefly breaks out of a recent consolidation phase as significant FPI outflows hit, despite a subdued Dollar index. The levels break the Rs 86.00/USD handle after 11th April. However, the move reversed quickly before the RBI's expected robust dividend announcement, which supported sentiment around the local currency, leading to an appreciation of 0.34 per cent this week. The U.S. Dollar Index, currently trading below the 99.00 level, continues to act as a tailwind for the Indian rupee, helping it stay supported in the near term. Positive sentiment has been boosted by the possibility of a temporary trade deal between India and the US, which could be announced before July 8. As part of the deal, India is reportedly trying to get full relief from the 26 per cent additional tariff on its exports to the US. If both the US and India agree to the deal, it will have a positive impact on the Rupee. The trade deal will help the Rupee to consolidate at around the current levels. Steady demand for dollars from big importers and oil companies continues to limit any sharp gains for the rupee. From a technical perspective, the USD/INR exchange rate is expected to trade sideways for now. Support for the Rupee is seen at around Rs 84.80 per dollar and if it falls below that, it could go down further to Rs 84.45, as per the report. On the other hand, resistance is expected near Rs 85.90, and if the dollar breaks above this, it could rise to Rs 86.80. Going forward, the report says that there are two main risks that could impact the Rupee. First is the anticipation of a sharp rise in the US dollar index (DXY) and second, any new trade or border tensions, which could hurt investor confidence. (ANI)
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India's industrial output likely slowed to 1.2% YoY in April: UBI Report
A Union Bank of India report forecasts a significant deceleration in India's industrial output, projecting a 1.2% year-on-year growth for April 2025, down from 3% in March. This slowdown is attributed to broad-based economic weakness, particularly in mining and manufacturing. Global trade uncertainties and tariff hikes are expected to further pressure export-oriented sectors, impacting overall IIP growth. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India's Index of Industrial Production , a measure of industrial output, will decelerate to 1.2 per cent year on year in April 2025 from 3 per cent in March due to the broad-based slowdown in economic activity, particularly mining and manufacturing, says a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI)According to the report, the country's IIP is expected to stay significantly lower than the 5.2 per cent of April 2024, indicating a "slowdown in economic activity" in the Indian economy."We had flagged a potential sharp slowdown in April IIP numbers in the March data report (IIP March 2025) due to a spike in global trade uncertainty during the month on reciprocal tariff hikes by the US (the highest since WWII)," the report added."We estimate that at least 30-35% of the weight in IIP is attributed to exports, which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved," the report further Industrial Production data for April will be released on May 28, offering insights into the country's manufacturing momentum and economic out the factors behind its anticipation, the report says that the high-frequency indicators showed mixed trends in April current year, amid high trade and tariff-related says the latest RBI Bulletin says that while E-way bills and toll collections recorded double-digit YoY growth in April, the automobile sector witnessed a petroleum consumption declined for the third consecutive month. Merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 26.4 bn in April from USD 19.2 bn the previous sector indicators, namely steel consumption and cement production, witnessed a moderation in April report says that the core sector, which has close to a 40 per cent contribution to the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, compared to 6.9 per cent registered in the same period last refinery products, fertilisers and crude oil showed negative YoY growth, the production of cement, coal, steel, electricity and natural gas recorded positive growth in April, even as it slowed very sharply compared to a monthly basis, except for natural gas, all seven other sectors showed contraction, with coal, refinery products, cement, steel and fertilisers registering double-digit negative report says that recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to remain weak in Apr 25 IIP, as was witnessed in previous overall consumer IIP is expected to slip into the negative zone from a flat reading in March, the report further added that consumption demand may be primarily led by urban demand, while rural demand may have weakened further in the report adds that capital goods IIP growth is expected to have improved in April as compared to the previous month due to favourable base effects (2.8 per cent in April 2024) as 2024 lags behind government spending during UBI says that intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods may have worsened in April compared to the previous month due to the fall in cement (-16.7 per cent MoM) and steel (-10.0 per cent MoM) production in April 2025.
India Gazette
2 days ago
- Business
- India Gazette
India's industrial output likely slowed to 1.2% YoY in April: UBI Report
New Delhi [India], May 27 (ANI): India's Index of Industrial Production, a measure of industrial output, will decelerate to 1.2 per cent year on year in April 2025 from 3 per cent in March due to the broad-based slowdown in economic activity, particularly mining and manufacturing, says a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI) According to the report, the country's IIP is expected to stay significantly lower than the 5.2 per cent of April 2024, indicating a 'slowdown in economic activity' in the Indian economy. 'We had flagged a potential sharp slowdown in April IIP numbers in the March data report (IIP March 2025) due to a spike in global trade uncertainty during the month on reciprocal tariff hikes by the US (the highest since WWII),' the report added. 'We estimate that at least 30-35% of the weight in IIP is attributed to exports, which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved,' the report further added. The Industrial Production data for April will be released on May 28, offering insights into the country's manufacturing momentum and economic activity. Pointing out the factors behind its anticipation, the report says that the high-frequency indicators showed mixed trends in April current year, amid high trade and tariff-related uncertainty. It says the latest RBI Bulletin says that while E-way bills and toll collections recorded double-digit YoY growth in April, the automobile sector witnessed a slowdown. Also, petroleum consumption declined for the third consecutive month. Merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 26.4 bn in April from USD 19.2 bn the previous year. Construction sector indicators, namely steel consumption and cement production, witnessed a moderation in April 2025. The report says that the core sector, which has close to a 40 per cent contribution to the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, compared to 6.9 per cent registered in the same period last year. While refinery products, fertilisers and crude oil showed negative YoY growth, the production of cement, coal, steel, electricity and natural gas recorded positive growth in April, even as it slowed very sharply compared to March. On a monthly basis, except for natural gas, all seven other sectors showed contraction, with coal, refinery products, cement, steel and fertilisers registering double-digit negative growth. The report says that recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to remain weak in Apr 25 IIP, as was witnessed in previous months. The overall consumer IIP is expected to slip into the negative zone from a flat reading in March, the report anticipated. It further added that consumption demand may be primarily led by urban demand, while rural demand may have weakened further in April. Furthermore, the report adds that capital goods IIP growth is expected to have improved in April as compared to the previous month due to favourable base effects (2.8 per cent in April 2024) as 2024 lags behind government spending during elections. The UBI says that intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods may have worsened in April compared to the previous month due to the fall in cement (-16.7 per cent MoM) and steel (-10.0 per cent MoM) production in April 2025. (ANI)
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's industrial output likely slowed to 1.2% YoY in April: UBI Report
India's Index of Industrial Production , a measure of industrial output, will decelerate to 1.2 per cent year on year in April 2025 from 3 per cent in March due to the broad-based slowdown in economic activity, particularly mining and manufacturing, says a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI) According to the report, the country's IIP is expected to stay significantly lower than the 5.2 per cent of April 2024, indicating a "slowdown in economic activity" in the Indian economy. "We had flagged a potential sharp slowdown in April IIP numbers in the March data report (IIP March 2025) due to a spike in global trade uncertainty during the month on reciprocal tariff hikes by the US (the highest since WWII)," the report added. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Uncover The Latest 2025 SUV Prices List In The Philippines SUV Deals | Search Ads Search Now Undo "We estimate that at least 30-35% of the weight in IIP is attributed to exports, which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved," the report further added. The Industrial Production data for April will be released on May 28, offering insights into the country's manufacturing momentum and economic activity. Live Events Pointing out the factors behind its anticipation, the report says that the high-frequency indicators showed mixed trends in April current year, amid high trade and tariff-related uncertainty. It says the latest RBI Bulletin says that while E-way bills and toll collections recorded double-digit YoY growth in April, the automobile sector witnessed a slowdown. Also, petroleum consumption declined for the third consecutive month. Merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 26.4 bn in April from USD 19.2 bn the previous year. Construction sector indicators, namely steel consumption and cement production, witnessed a moderation in April 2025. The report says that the core sector, which has close to a 40 per cent contribution to the IIP, slowed to an eight-month low of 0.5 per cent YoY in April, compared to 6.9 per cent registered in the same period last year. While refinery products, fertilisers and crude oil showed negative YoY growth, the production of cement, coal, steel, electricity and natural gas recorded positive growth in April, even as it slowed very sharply compared to March. On a monthly basis, except for natural gas, all seven other sectors showed contraction, with coal, refinery products, cement, steel and fertilisers registering double-digit negative growth. The report says that recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to remain weak in Apr 25 IIP, as was witnessed in previous months. The overall consumer IIP is expected to slip into the negative zone from a flat reading in March, the report anticipated. It further added that consumption demand may be primarily led by urban demand, while rural demand may have weakened further in April. Furthermore, the report adds that capital goods IIP growth is expected to have improved in April as compared to the previous month due to favourable base effects (2.8 per cent in April 2024) as 2024 lags behind government spending during elections. The UBI says that intermediate, infrastructure, and construction goods may have worsened in April compared to the previous month due to the fall in cement (-16.7 per cent MoM) and steel (-10.0 per cent MoM) production in April 2025.
